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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Century Aluminum Company (XNAS:CENX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CENX
Name:
CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY (XNAS:CENX)
Sector:
11.40M
Industry:
Aluminum
CEO:
Mr. Michael Bless
Total Employees:
2,512
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -369.59% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CENTURY ALUMINUM COMPANY(CENX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ALUMINUM INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
7.38
One Month Price Target:
$7.49
Six Month Price Target :
$8.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$8.64
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$7.33
Price Upper limit ($) :
$7.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$6.62
This week:
$5.67
This month :
$3.97
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
667.83M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
91.36M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.63%
-19.9%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.92
$9.29
$3.84
$5.47
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$8.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$8.41
$6.00
$6.35
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CENX
Sharpe Ratio:
2.34%
Comparison:
CENX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 8.22% higher than the industry
& ratio is 2.49% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CENX
Daily returns:
0.13%
Weekly returns:
0.64%
Monthly returns:
2.56%
Yearly returns:
26.90%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 14.08% above industry average
Classification:
CENX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
CENX has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.10%
Weekly Volatility:
11.39%
Monthly Volatility:
22.79%
Yearly Volatility:
78.94%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.79%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -45.16% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.34%
Weekly VaR:
-23.11%
Monthly VaR:
-46.23%
How Much Can the price of
CENX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-39%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.47
This translates to price declining to:
$1.11
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CENX is a 226.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 179.53% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 19.00% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CENX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.54
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.402
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.983
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
2.067
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.99
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.64
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.525
Beta is 66.86% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.971
Beta is 29.10% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.101
Alpha is -1.37% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 644% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CENX
Equity cost of capital:
0.206
Equity cost of capital is 23.60% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
16.72%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.04%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.77%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.77%
WACC is 16.91% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$27.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.53
Annual revenue growth rate is -48.00% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.13
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
26.68%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 0.00% lower than the Aluminum industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$4.29
EBITDA per share
$0.80
Valuation Analysis Today of
CENX
P/E Ratio:
11.8
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
88.22
P/E ratio is -86.62% lower than main peers & is -62.80% lower than the industry
-
CENX is -278.95% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.27
Price to sales ratio is -71.36% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.53
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
145.14%
Net income growth rate is 284.26% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
89.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
100.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
26.26%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -66.41% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
2.59
Interest coverage ratio is -35.05% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
50.08%
Annual debt growth is 253% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 43.96%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.424
Statistical significance of correlation:
CENX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.476
Stock price is -10.92% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.476
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.058
Kurtosis
1.49
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.025
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CENX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
36%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
7.30%
Operating profit margin is -304.88% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
36%
Effective Tax Rate:
74.09%
Effective tax rate is 118.22% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-2.14%
Return on equity (ROE) is -88.31% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-0.56%
Return on assets (ROA) is -89.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.27
Current ratio is -29.31% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-1
Cash conversion cycle is -101.97% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates 6% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
29.3K
Each employee generates -70% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 3.7K
Each employee generates -122% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.5K
Each employee generates -350% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
382.2K
Each employee generates -350% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CENX
KAISER ALUMINUM CORPORATION (XNAS:KALU)
AMYRIS, INC. (XNAS:AMRS)
SCHNITZER STEEL INDUSTRIES, INC. (XNAS:SCHN)
Green Plains Inc. (XNAS:GPRE)
FERROGLOBE PLC (XNAS:GSM)
Origin Materials Inc (XNAS:ORGN)
GEVO, INC. (XNAS:GEVO)
Hawkins, Inc. (XNAS:HWKN)
PIEDMONT LITHIUM INC. (XNAS:PLL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.52B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.28B
238.10M
-
-
53.20M
-
700.00K
53.90M
800.00K
28.40M
81.10M
73.50M
184.20M
- 9400.00K
- 35900.00K
- 26600.00K
- 9400.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
19.40M
Differed Income Tax :
1.30M
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 34800.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 47100.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 4300.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
33.80M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
37.40M
Investments in PP&E:
- 26000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
26.60M
-
26.60M
146.30M
426.50M
129.10M
728.50M
893.30M
-
-
-
-
66.90M
960.20M
-
1.69B
202.80M
78.10M
-
-
293.10M
574.00M
391.90M
222.50M
674.90M
-
1.25B
1.00M
- 1929200.00K
- 81700.0K
2.45B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.34B
439.80M
1.69B
-
470.00M
443.4M
-
-
- 26000.00K
- 307400.00K
-
-
-
303.50M
- 3900.00K
-
7.50M
48.20M
40.70M
37.40M
- 26000.00K
11.40M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CENX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$8.68
$4.03
$4.72
$5.53
$6.47