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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Centrus Energy Corp. (XNYS:LEU) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
LEU
Name:
CENTRUS ENERGY CORP. (XNYS:LEU)
Sector:
- 12700.00K
Industry:
Uranium
CEO:
Mr. Daniel Poneman
Total Employees:
266
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CENTRUS ENERGY CORP.(LEU) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND URANIUM INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
47.35
One Month Price Target:
$47.92
Six Month Price Target :
$50.74
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$54.14
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$47.11
Price Upper limit ($) :
$48.05
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$41.89
This week:
$35.14
This month :
$22.93
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
683.43M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
14.49M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
24.04%
-23.73%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$72.62
$60.62
$22.08
$34.08
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$56.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$54.16
$37.95
$40.54
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
LEU
Sharpe Ratio:
7.98%
Comparison:
LEU, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 15.84% higher than the industry
& ratio is 250.25% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
LEU
Daily returns:
0.48%
Weekly returns:
2.38%
Monthly returns:
9.51%
Yearly returns:
96.05%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 18.82% above industry average
Classification:
LEU, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.08
Statistical test of Returns:
LEU has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.85%
Weekly Volatility:
13.07%
Monthly Volatility:
26.14%
Yearly Volatility:
90.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.97%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -14.95% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.53%
Weekly VaR:
-25.78%
Monthly VaR:
-51.56%
How Much Can the price of
LEU
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.35
This translates to price declining to:
$7.10
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
LEU is a 263.93% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 211.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.51% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
LEU
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.143
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.617
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
53.658
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.07
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.245
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.163
Beta is 83.46% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.678
Beta is 27.17% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.964
Alpha is 18.37% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 6134% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
LEU
Equity cost of capital:
0.178
Equity cost of capital is 21.32% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
446.78%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.10%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.08%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.08%
WACC is 10.82% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$19.19
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
-5.16
Annual revenue growth rate is -106.18% below industry average
EPS:
$9.62
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$6.82
EBITDA per share
$9.33
Valuation Analysis Today of
LEU
P/E Ratio:
4.17
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.62
P/E ratio is -56.60% lower than main peers & is -56.22% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $91.74
LEU is -48.39% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.47
Price to sales ratio is 32.87% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-5.16
-
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-211.31%
Net income growth rate is 34.26% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
-74.29%
Net debt to equity ratio:
47.82%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.38%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-11.83%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -76.06% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
1352
Interest coverage ratio is -517.21% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-94.85%
Annual debt growth is 43% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.296
Statistical significance of correlation:
LEU has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.387
Stock price is -23.58% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.387
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.005
Kurtosis
1.78
Returns are more concentrated around the mean (platykurtic), compared to a normal distribution
Skewness of returns:
0.244
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
LEU
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.02%
Operating profit margin is -102.56% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
141%
Effective Tax Rate:
-29.26%
Effective tax rate is -5078.80% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-126.54%
Return on equity (ROE) is 550.85% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
31.31%
Return on assets (ROA) is -7155.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.2
Current ratio is -93.90% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-28
Cash conversion cycle is -164.59% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.30%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates 0% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
508.3K
Each employee generates 0% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
632.7K
Each employee generates 0% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 47.7K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
430.5K
Each employee generates 0% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
LEU
Ur-Energy Inc. (XNYS:URG)
GRAN TIERRA ENERGY INC. (XNYS:GTE)
RING ENERGY INC. (XNYS:REI)
GOLDPLAT PLC (XLON:GDP)
EVOLUTION PETROLEUM CORPORATION (XNYS:EPM)
ADAMS RESOURCES & ENERGY, INC. (XNYS:AE)
PEDEVCO CORP. (XNYS:PED)
RILEY EXPLORATION PERMIAN, INC. (XNYS:REPX)
SANCHEZ MIDSTREAM PARTNERS CL B UNT (XNYS:SNMP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
278.00M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
168.10M
109.90M
-
26.20M
37.20M
-
4.40M
41.60M
-
100.00K
4.90M
135.20M
64.00M
168.30M
130.20M
- 38100.00K
168.30M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.30M
Differed Income Tax :
300.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
500.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 13800.00K
Accounts Receivables:
16.60M
Other Working Capital:
- 6300.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 500.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 12600.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
168.50M
-
168.50M
12.50M
89.40M
152.70M
423.10M
5.50M
-
53.60M
-
41.20M
14.20M
114.50M
-
537.60M
33.70M
6.10M
-
302.80M
9.90M
352.50M
98.80M
174.20M
318.10M
-
670.60M
1.50M
- 285000.00K
400.0K
150.10M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
209.70M
- 133000.00K
537.60M
-
104.90M
- 63600.0K
-
- 100.00K
- 100.00K
-
-
-
-
- 3200.00K
- 3200.00K
-
- 15900.00K
180.90M
196.80M
- 12600.00K
- 100.00K
- 12700.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
LEU
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$67.01
$76.62
$87.61
$100.17
$114.53