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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Central Securities Corp (XNYS:CET) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CET
Name:
Central Securities Corp (XNYS:CET)
Sector:
57.45M
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Wilmot Kidd
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CENTRAL SECURITIES CORP(CET) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.7
One Month Price Target:
$35.85
Six Month Price Target :
$36.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.52
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.62
Price Upper limit ($) :
$35.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$34.6
This week:
$33.24
This month :
$30.78
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.15B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.23%
-13.64%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.80
$38.46
$30.60
$32.94
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$37.70
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$37.20
$33.70
$34.20
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CET
Sharpe Ratio:
1.20%
Comparison:
CET, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 48.65% higher than the industry
& is -47.56% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CET
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.13%
Monthly returns:
0.54%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -29.64% below industry average
Classification:
CET, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.53
Statistical test of Returns:
CET has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.51%
Weekly Volatility:
3.38%
Monthly Volatility:
6.76%
Yearly Volatility:
23.43%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.48%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -68.43% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.08%
Weekly VaR:
-6.88%
Monthly VaR:
-13.77%
How Much Can the price of
CET
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-12%
Worst case (decline):
-47.69%
This translates to price declining to:
$31.46
This translates to price declining to:
$18.67
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CET is -2.83% less risky an investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -16.75% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -41.81% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CET
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.76
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.58
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.82
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.544
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.484
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.843
Beta is -10.19% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -55.30% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.019
Alpha is -66.32% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -119% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CET
Equity cost of capital:
0.083
Equity cost of capital is -43.49% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
12164.47%
After-tax cost of debt:
9609.93%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9609.93%
WACC is 32.49% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.79
Annual revenue growth rate is -1275.48% below industry average
EPS:
$12.97
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.61%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -65.41% lower than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.95
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 146.25%
Equity growth rate per share is 592.06% higher than the industry
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
CET
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.49
-
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $209.44
CET is -82.95% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
33.36
Price to sales ratio is 386.86% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.79
Price to free cash flow: 18.29
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-1112.75%
Net income growth rate is -865.41% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: -92.17%
Dividend yeild: 12.89%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $4.60
Expected next dividend best case: $2.05
Expected next dividend worst case: -$1.65
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.84
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 541.42%
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-10--$0.20
2021-06-11--$0.20
2020-06-12--$0.20
2021-11-12--$3.55
2020-11-13--$0.65
2019-11-15--$0.37
Dividend growth rate is 9705.77% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.01%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-0.03%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.01%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-1.61
Interest coverage ratio is -102.70% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-66.17%
Annual debt growth is 857% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.728
Statistical significance of correlation:
CET has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is 26.38% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.023
Kurtosis
19.516
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.843
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CET
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
70.65%
Operating profit margin is 50.21% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-4.71%
Return on equity (ROE) is -118.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-4.71%
Return on assets (ROA) is -180.64% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 3.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CET
ABRDN ASIA-PACIFIC INCOME FUND, INC. (XNYS:FAX)
Eaton Vance Muni Bd (XNYS:EIM)
Cornerstone Strat Value (XNYS:CLM)
GAMCO Gl Gld NR & Inc (XNYS:GGN)
Eaton Vance Ltd Dur Inc (XNYS:EVV)
Invesco Adv Muni II (XNYS:VKI)
Allspring Income Oppty (XNYS:EAD)
Cornerstone Total Return (XNYS:CRF)
BAR HARBOR BANKSHARES (XNYS:BHB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
6/30/20
Revenue:
31.14M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
8.61M
9.14M
-
-
9.14M
-
24.07M
9.19K
- 38642.07K
22.00M
- 62720.77K
- 62720.77K
-
- 62720.77K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
7.23K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 430.47K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 295704.70K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
57.45M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
12/31/21
2021
FY
612.86K
-
612.86K
692.48K
-
-
-
197.87K
-
-
1.33B
-
-
-
1.33B
1.33B
-
-
-
-
-
-
197.87K
-
197.87K
562.14K
364.27K
27.27M
897.70M
-
407.63M
December 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
9.14M
1.33B
1.33B
-
197.87K
- 415.0K
-
-
-
-
-
-
- 57806.74K
-
- 57806.74K
-
- 357.98K
612.86K
970.84K
57.45M
-
57.45M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CET
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$37.71
$129.79
$136.39
$143.33
$150.63