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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Celsius Holdings, Inc. (XNAS:CELH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CELH
Name:
CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CELH)
Sector:
8.38M
Industry:
Beverages�Non-Alcoholic
CEO:
Mr. John Fieldly
Total Employees:
225
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -3904.76% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CELSIUS HOLDINGS, INC.(CELH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BEVERAGES�NON-ALCOHOLIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
96.36
One Month Price Target:
$97.39
Six Month Price Target :
$102.54
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$108.72
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$96.03
Price Upper limit ($) :
$97.84
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$85.99
This week:
$73.18
This month :
$50.01
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
7.10B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
75.64M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.1%
-39.59%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$144.29
$121.19
$48.43
$71.53
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$113.68
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$108.75
$78.98
$83.97
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CELH
Sharpe Ratio:
10.65%
Comparison:
CELH, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 164.16% higher than the industry
& ratio is 367.40% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CELH
Daily returns:
0.60%
Weekly returns:
2.99%
Monthly returns:
11.96%
Yearly returns:
36.41%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 294.09% above industry average
Classification:
CELH, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.01
Statistical test of Returns:
CELH has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.53%
Weekly Volatility:
12.36%
Monthly Volatility:
24.73%
Yearly Volatility:
85.65%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.70%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.17% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.76%
Weekly VaR:
-24.05%
Monthly VaR:
-48.11%
How Much Can the price of
CELH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-36%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$62.00
This translates to price declining to:
$14.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CELH is a 239.53% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 190.87% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 110.47% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CELH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.057
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.495
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.898
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.48
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.968
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.61
Beta is 213.18% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.913
Beta is 109.17% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.00%
Sustainable growth rate is -62.91% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.273
Alpha is 371.21% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 8101% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CELH
Equity cost of capital:
0.162
Equity cost of capital is 72.59% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
16.13%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.55%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.43%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.43%
WACC is 97.64% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.26
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
31.92
Annual revenue growth rate is 370.16% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.13
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-32.14%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -262.80% lower than the Beverages�Non-Alcoholic industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.01
EBITDA per share
$0.09
Valuation Analysis Today of
CELH
P/E Ratio:
502.58
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.52
P/E ratio is 2235.38% higher than main peers & is 311.44% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $15.88
CELH is 506.81% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
18.33
Price to sales ratio is 188.22% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
31.92
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-125.05%
Net income growth rate is -4.70% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.32%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-10.55%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-7.00%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.59% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
854.1
Interest coverage ratio is -12337.07% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
18.00%
Annual debt growth is -1062% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.65%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.43
Statistical significance of correlation:
CELH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is -20.50% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.053
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.171
Kurtosis
7.516
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.037
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CELH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
163%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.31%
Operating profit margin is -90.92% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
163%
Effective Tax Rate:
-86.23%
Effective tax rate is -541.32% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.39%
Return on equity (ROE) is -85.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.92%
Return on assets (ROA) is -74.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
2.67
Current ratio is 29.74% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
40.2
Cash conversion cycle is -55.49% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
42.97%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.8M
Each employee generates 103% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
30.0K
Each employee generates -83% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
44.6K
Each employee generates -62% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
37.3K
Each employee generates 64% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
203.2K
Each employee generates 64% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CELH
THE SIMPLY GOOD FOODS COMPANY (XNAS:SMPL)
SANDERSON FARMS, INC. (XNAS:SAFM)
J & J SNACK FOODS CORP. (XNAS:JJSF)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENTA)
CENTRAL GARDEN & PET COMPANY (XNAS:CENT)
THE HAIN CELESTIAL GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HAIN)
Sprouts Farmers Market, Inc. (XNAS:SFM)
2U, INC. (XNAS:TWOU)
GRAND CANYON EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LOPE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
397.62M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
236.14M
161.48M
-
61.89M
156.27M
94.38M
-
156.27M
306.30K
7.90K
1.35M
6.75M
5.21M
10.03M
5.39M
- 4644.72K
10.03M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
386.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.31M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5386.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 34420.00K
Other Working Capital:
3.25M
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.14M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
9.13M
Investments in PP&E:
- 742.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
25.53M
-
25.53M
78.54M
184.09M
10.04M
298.21M
5.06M
14.24M
15.84M
-
6.40M
4.18M
45.72M
-
343.92M
50.54M
710.00K
-
2.26M
58.24M
111.75M
735.00K
-
3.82M
-
115.57M
75.00K
- 44811.00K
123.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
392.41M
228.35M
343.92M
-
1.45M
- 24087.0K
-
-
- 742.00K
- 20.00K
-
-
-
810.00K
790.00K
104.00K
9.28M
25.53M
16.26M
9.13M
- 742.00K
8.38M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CELH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$79.51
$89.71
$101.22
$114.21
$128.86