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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Celldex Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:CLDX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CLDX
Name:
CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CLDX)
Sector:
- 25109.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Anthony Marucci
Total Employees:
132
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 21.20% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CELLDEX THERAPEUTICS, INC.(CLDX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
30.04
One Month Price Target:
$30.45
Six Month Price Target :
$32.48
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$34.91
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$29.88
Price Upper limit ($) :
$30.53
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$26.26
This week:
$21.59
This month :
$13.13
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.34B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
46.77M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
82.4%
-16.26%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$47.53
$39.20
$12.55
$20.88
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$36.49
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.71
$23.56
$25.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CLDX
Sharpe Ratio:
8.53%
Comparison:
CLDX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 338.87% higher than the industry
& ratio is 274.40% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CLDX
Daily returns:
0.55%
Weekly returns:
2.77%
Monthly returns:
11.10%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 427.87% above industry average
Classification:
CLDX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.12
Statistical test of Returns:
CLDX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
6.40%
Weekly Volatility:
14.31%
Monthly Volatility:
28.61%
Yearly Volatility:
99.11%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.44%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.42% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-12.58%
Weekly VaR:
-28.14%
Monthly VaR:
-56.28%
How Much Can the price of
CLDX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-43%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.01
This translates to price declining to:
$4.51
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CLDX is a 297.21% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 240.29% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 34.56% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CLDX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.41
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.096
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.55
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
2.41
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.389
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.444
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.361
Beta is 77.38% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 109.66% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
1.135
Alpha is 699.88% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 7222% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CLDX
Equity cost of capital:
0.197
Equity cost of capital is 78.37% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
19.65%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.09
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.53
Annual revenue growth rate is -115.38% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.71
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-22.40%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -324.48% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.02
EBITDA per share
-$1.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
CLDX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
280.01
-
-
CLDX is -119.58% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
339.3
Price to sales ratio is 737.69% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.53
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-88.64%
Net income growth rate is -225.58% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.21%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-5.69%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-5.34%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.08
Statistical significance of correlation:
CLDX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is -76.58% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.081
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.302
Kurtosis
52.716
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
4.895
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CLDX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-1880.25%
Operating profit margin is 338.61% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
0.29%
Effective tax rate is -94.85% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-19.35%
Return on equity (ROE) is -66.25% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-18.16%
Return on assets (ROA) is -10.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
26.83
Current ratio is 231.48% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-4.09%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
31.4K
Each employee generates -98% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 561.7K
Each employee generates -246% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 583.5K
Each employee generates -556% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 190.2K
Each employee generates -229% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
252.6K
Each employee generates -229% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 25.34%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -806.24% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CLDX
VERICEL CORPORATION (XNAS:VCEL)
Travere Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:TVTX)
EDITAS MEDICINE, INC. (XNAS:EDIT)
PROTAGONIST THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:PTGX)
LUMINEX RESOURCES CORP. (OTCM:LUMIF)
CODEXIS, INC. (XNAS:CDXS)
MORPHIC HOLDING, INC. (XNAS:MORF)
HEALTH CATALYST, INC. (XNAS:HCAT)
AGIOS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:AGIO)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�13%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.14M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
57.65M
23.28M
23.28M
-
-
80.93M
-
-
3.10M
- 74146.00K
- 77861.00K
- 77023.00K
- 77250.00K
- 227.00K
- 77023.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
811.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.15M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5684.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
236.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 24534.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 575.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 16890.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
25.29M
355.18M
380.47M
243.00K
-
9.99M
390.70M
6.05M
-
27.19M
-
-
104.00K
33.34M
-
424.04M
1.02M
1.80M
-
-
11.74M
14.56M
841.00K
10.54M
11.38M
-
25.94M
47.00K
- 1166657.00K
112.0K
1.56B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
80.93M
398.10M
424.04M
-
2.64M
- 22650.0K
27.85M
-
10.38M
-
-
-
-
304.00K
304.00K
-
- 13850.00K
25.29M
39.14M
- 24534.00K
- 575.00K
- 25109.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CLDX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$35.02
$40.70
$47.31
$54.98
$63.91