_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Celanese Corporation (XNYS:CE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CE
Name:
CELANESE CORPORATION (XNYS:CE)
Sector:
- 141000.00K
Industry:
Chemicals
CEO:
Ms. Lori Ryerkerk
Total Employees:
8,529
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -101.13% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CELANESE CORPORATION(CE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CHEMICALS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
106.88
One Month Price Target:
$107.61
Six Month Price Target :
$111.25
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$115.62
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$106.43
Price Upper limit ($) :
$107.36
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$101.31
This week:
$94.42
This month :
$81.97
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
11.52B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
108.35M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.96%
-16.06%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$132.74
$120.96
$81.02
$92.80
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$117.12
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$114.60
$96.61
$99.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CE
Sharpe Ratio:
0.15%
Comparison:
CE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -87.69% lower than the industry
& is -93.51% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CE
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.25%
Yearly returns:
10.16%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -70.19% below industry average
Classification:
CE, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.2
Statistical test of Returns:
CE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.54%
Weekly Volatility:
5.69%
Monthly Volatility:
11.38%
Yearly Volatility:
39.41%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -95.24% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.21%
Weekly VaR:
-11.65%
Monthly VaR:
-23.31%
How Much Can the price of
CE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-80.74%
This translates to price declining to:
$85.00
This translates to price declining to:
$20.58
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CE is a 64.51% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 40.93% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -7.45% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.22
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.835
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.181
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.75
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.824
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.846
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.211
Beta is 0.46% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.371
Beta is -11.26% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
26.98%
Sustainable growth rate is 44.49% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.085
Alpha is 254.99% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -538% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CE
Equity cost of capital:
0.115
Equity cost of capital is -8.43% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.08%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.40%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.89%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.89%
WACC is -14.35% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$85.62
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.34
Annual revenue growth rate is 559.10% above the industry average
EPS:
$18.69
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
35.35%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 66.13% higher than the Chemicals industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$10.53
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 23.78%
Equity growth rate per share is 664.53% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$30.96
EBITDA per share
$26.08
Valuation Analysis Today of
CE
P/E Ratio:
5.9
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
9.75
P/E ratio is -39.46% lower than main peers & is -50.83% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $224.37
CE is -52.36% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $41.12
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $26.13
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.25
Price to sales ratio is 4.68% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.34
Price to free cash flow: 10.15
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
78.52%
Net income growth rate is -15.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.53%
Dividend yeild: 2.54%
Previous Dividend: $0.68
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.68
Previous Dividend: $2.72
Expected next dividend best case: $0.71
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.65
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.65
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.97%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 27/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend record date: 28/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-27--$0.68
2021-10-29--$0.68
2021-04-23--$0.68
2022-02-18--$0.68
2021-07-23--$0.68
2021-02-08--$0.68
Dividend growth rate is -76.87% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
72.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
78.36%
Debt to assets ratio:
27.00%
Net debt to assets ratio:
29.05%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -56.84% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
27.98
Interest coverage ratio is 117.96% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
5.97%
Annual debt growth is -94% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.21%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.725
Statistical significance of correlation:
CE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.682
Stock price is 6.39% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.682
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.035
Kurtosis
6.759
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.738
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
127%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.19%
Operating profit margin is 137.80% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
127%
Effective Tax Rate:
14.54%
Effective tax rate is -22.83% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
44.93%
Return on equity (ROE) is 82.21% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
16.66%
Return on assets (ROA) is 108.16% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.64
Current ratio is -1.77% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
73.1
Cash conversion cycle is 93.57% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.9 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.72%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -3% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
331.3K
Each employee generates 49% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
242.7K
Each employee generates 77% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 16.5K
Each employee generates 2336% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
964.5K
Each employee generates 2336% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 16.22%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 421.38% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CE
AVTR-PA
POSCO Holdings Inc. (XNYS:PKX)
Wheaton Precious Metals Corp. (XNYS:WPM)
EASTMAN CHEMICAL COMPANY (XNYS:EMN)
Teck Resources Limited (XNYS:TECK)
Vedanta Limited (XNSE:VEDL)
AVANTOR, INC. (XNYS:AVTR)
THE MOSAIC COMPANY (XNYS:MOS)
CF INDUSTRIES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:CF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�33%
Hold�25%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
9.28B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.34B
2.94B
90.00M
-
670.00M
-
30.00M
790.00M
8.00M
101.00M
298.00M
2.83B
2.15B
2.07B
2.46B
357.00M
2.07B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
106.00M
Differed Income Tax :
4.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
15.00M
Change in Working Capital :
344.00M
Accounts Receivables:
- 240000.00K
Other Working Capital:
1.65B
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 975000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 4000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 137000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
605.00M
9.00M
614.00M
1.91B
1.55B
124.00M
4.20B
4.46B
1.40B
715.00M
847.00M
244.00M
569.00M
8.23B
-
12.43B
1.17B
860.00M
106.00M
-
525.00M
2.55B
3.36B
1.00B
4.92B
-
7.47B
-
10.11B
- 333000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
7.13B
4.61B
12.08B
856.00M
4.22B
3.6B
-
- 12000.00K
- 149000.00K
- 7000.00K
-
- 17000.00K
- 73000.00K
2.00M
- 95000.00K
- 3000.00K
69.00M
605.00M
536.00M
- 4000.00K
- 137000.00K
- 141000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$116.20
$185.26
$200.40
$216.78
$234.49