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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cbre Group, Inc. (XNYS:CBRE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CBRE
Name:
CBRE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:CBRE)
Sector:
- 435563.00K
Industry:
Real Estate Services
CEO:
Mr. Robert Sulentic
Total Employees:
105,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 115.76% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CBRE GROUP, INC.(CBRE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REAL ESTATE SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
77.14
One Month Price Target:
$77.74
Six Month Price Target :
$80.73
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$84.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$76.83
Price Upper limit ($) :
$77.57
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$72.77
This week:
$67.36
This month :
$57.58
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
24.71B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
321.17M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
16.8%
-17.21%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$97.42
$88.06
$56.86
$66.22
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$85.02
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$83.02
$69.24
$71.26
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CBRE
Sharpe Ratio:
2.53%
Comparison:
CBRE, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 55.35% higher than the industry
& ratio is 10.98% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CBRE
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.40%
Monthly returns:
1.59%
Yearly returns:
16.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 16.31% above industry average
Classification:
CBRE, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.29
Statistical test of Returns:
CBRE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.80%
Weekly Volatility:
6.26%
Monthly Volatility:
12.52%
Yearly Volatility:
43.36%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.86%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -69.35% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.67%
Weekly VaR:
-12.68%
Monthly VaR:
-25.35%
How Much Can the price of
CBRE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-87.82%
This translates to price declining to:
$60.55
This translates to price declining to:
$9.40
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CBRE is a 78.93% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 53.29% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -20.19% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CBRE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.38
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.962
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.36
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.087
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.909
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.919
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.198
Beta is 15.57% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.462
Beta is -5.35% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
19.48%
Sustainable growth rate is -19.67% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.065
Alpha is 98.38% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 413% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CBRE
Equity cost of capital:
0.126
Equity cost of capital is -4.07% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.92%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.24%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.98%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.98%
WACC is 20.20% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$90.73
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.67
Annual revenue growth rate is -71.03% below industry average
EPS:
$5.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.30%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -37.08% lower than the Real Estate Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$5.69
-
-
Debt per share
$8.98
EBITDA per share
$9.52
Valuation Analysis Today of
CBRE
P/E Ratio:
12.94
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
32.09
P/E ratio is -59.67% lower than main peers & is -57.01% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $174.30
CBRE is -55.74% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.85
Price to sales ratio is -83.74% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.67
Price to free cash flow: 13.56
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
74.77%
Net income growth rate is 91.81% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
34.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
30.78%
Debt to assets ratio:
13.63%
Net debt to assets ratio:
12.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -74.56% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
57.58
Interest coverage ratio is 105.30% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
2.46%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.48%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.707
Statistical significance of correlation:
CBRE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.544
Stock price is 30.09% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.544
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.031
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.05
Kurtosis
7.934
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.113
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CBRE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
90%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
5.99%
Operating profit margin is -40.73% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
90%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.84%
Effective tax rate is 4.47% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
23.17%
Return on equity (ROE) is 98.20% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.28%
Return on assets (ROA) is 92.34% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.14
Current ratio is -84.55% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
53.4
Cash conversion cycle is 630.25% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
277.5K
Each employee generates -69% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
29.1K
Each employee generates -89% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
18.7K
Each employee generates -76% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.1K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
119.2K
Each employee generates -96% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CBRE
AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:AVB)
EQUITY RESIDENTIAL (XNYS:EQR)
ARENA EVENTS GROUP PLC (XLON:ARE)
WEYERHAEUSER COMPANY (XNYS:WY)
REALTY INCOME CORPORATION (XNYS:O)
NRZ-PC
EXTRA SPACE STORAGE INC. (XNYS:EXR)
INVITATION HOMES INC. (XNYS:INVH)
MID-AMERICA APARTMENT COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:MAA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
29.14B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
22.61B
6.53B
-
-
4.31B
-
552.83M
4.86B
-
53.07M
552.83M
3.06B
1.75B
1.96B
2.46B
487.44M
1.96B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
149.03M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
36.86M
Change in Working Capital :
- 1118594.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 707494.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
142.92M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 393507.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 61179.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.66B
-
1.66B
6.84B
-
135.29M
8.63B
1.82B
-
-
1.12B
-
2.25B
12.51B
-
21.14B
-
1.38B
-
295.64M
5.86B
7.54B
2.88B
1.44B
4.32B
-
11.86B
-
-
- 701440.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
27.48B
8.47B
20.33B
-
4.26B
2.6B
-
- 34442.00K
- 95621.00K
- 13954.00K
-
- 399258.00K
-
204.20M
- 209009.00K
- 49015.00K
- 747152.00K
1.79B
2.54B
- 393507.00K
- 42056.00K
- 435563.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CBRE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$84.73
$137.61
$150.41
$164.40
$179.69