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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CBOE
Name:
Cboe Global Markets, Inc. (BATS:CBOE)
Sector:
1.25B
Industry:
Financial Data & Stock Exchanges
CEO:
Mr. Edward Tilly
Total Employees:
1,196
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 153.94% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CBOE GLOBAL MARKETS, INC.(CBOE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FINANCIAL DATA & STOCK EXCHANGES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
119.81
One Month Price Target:
$120.22
Six Month Price Target :
$122.27
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$124.73
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$119.42
Price Upper limit ($) :
$120.27
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$114.67
This week:
$108.33
This month :
$96.84
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
12.71B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
106.06M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.53%
-14.33%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$143.65
$132.74
$95.97
$106.88
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$129.19
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$126.86
$110.40
$112.76
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CBOE
Sharpe Ratio:
0.88%
Comparison:
CBOE, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -67.51% lower than the industry
& is -61.47% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CBOE
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.55%
Yearly returns:
18.99%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -65.50% below industry average
Classification:
CBOE, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.69
Statistical test of Returns:
CBOE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.10%
Weekly Volatility:
4.70%
Monthly Volatility:
9.39%
Yearly Volatility:
32.54%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.12%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 0.95% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.29%
Weekly VaR:
-9.59%
Monthly VaR:
-19.17%
How Much Can the price of
CBOE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-66.41%
This translates to price declining to:
$99.87
This translates to price declining to:
$40.24
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CBOE is a 35.31% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 15.92% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.81% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CBOE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.547
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.773
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.467
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.543
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.624
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.092
Beta is -43.98% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.802
Beta is -23.74% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.63%
Sustainable growth rate is -72.85% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.008
Alpha is -107.61% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -50% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CBOE
Equity cost of capital:
0.073
Equity cost of capital is -15.09% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.73%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.15%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.15%
WACC is -8.46% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$32.61
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.56
Annual revenue growth rate is -4.43% below industry average
EPS:
$4.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
13.67%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -12.52% lower than the Financial Data & Stock Exchanges industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$11.14
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 55.30%
Equity growth rate per share is 90.96% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$16.36
EBITDA per share
$9.44
Valuation Analysis Today of
CBOE
P/E Ratio:
62.53
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
20.33
P/E ratio is 207.52% higher than main peers & is 101.04% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $145.26
CBOE is -17.52% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $82.30
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $46.70
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.67
Price to sales ratio is -62.96% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.56
Price to free cash flow: 10.75
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
29.84%
Net income growth rate is -53.34% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 10.25%
Dividend yeild: 1.60%
Previous Dividend: $0.48
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.48
Previous Dividend: $1.92
Expected next dividend best case: $0.52
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.44
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.43
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.10%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/11/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 13/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.48
2021-11-29--$0.48
2021-05-27--$0.42
2022-02-25--$0.48
2021-08-30--$0.48
2021-02-25--$0.42
Dividend growth rate is -65.68% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
48.63%
Net debt to equity ratio:
30.15%
Debt to assets ratio:
21.16%
Net debt to assets ratio:
13.12%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -61.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
21.18
Interest coverage ratio is -29.49% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
6.92%
Annual debt growth is -75% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.538
Statistical significance of correlation:
CBOE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.632
Stock price is -14.90% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.632
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.043
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.053
Kurtosis
9.492
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.419
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CBOE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
143%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
24.32%
Operating profit margin is -30.25% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
143%
Effective Tax Rate:
36.38%
Effective tax rate is 62.86% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
14.06%
Return on equity (ROE) is -72.38% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.12%
Return on assets (ROA) is -45.85% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.25
Current ratio is -25.87% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
34.1
Cash conversion cycle is 38.25% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.81%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.9M
Each employee generates 240% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
837.5K
Each employee generates 93% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
419.2K
Each employee generates 57% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates 514% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.4M
Each employee generates 514% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CBOE
MORNINGSTAR, INC. (XNAS:MORN)
EAST WEST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EWBC)
ERIE INDEMNITY COMPANY (XNAS:ERIE)
HBANO
ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION (XNAS:ZION)
COMMERCE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:CBSH)
SEI INVESTMENTS COMPANY (XNAS:SEIC)
ARES CAPITAL CORPORATION (XNAS:ARCC)
Signature Bank (XNAS:SBNY)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.46B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.23B
1.23B
-
174.00M
174.00M
-
202.10M
376.10M
1.40M
47.30M
166.30M
1.00B
841.00M
501.40M
788.10M
286.70M
501.40M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
40.90M
Differed Income Tax :
- 17800.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
9.10M
Change in Working Capital :
1.11B
Accounts Receivables:
- 56200.00K
Other Working Capital:
1.13B
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.90M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.26B
Investments in PP&E:
- 10800.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 22700.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
659.40M
48.70M
708.10M
380.30M
-
1.85B
2.94B
231.50M
3.02B
1.67B
244.50M
-
103.00M
5.26B
-
8.20B
21.20M
-
32.50M
26.40M
2.29B
2.34B
1.73B
202.40M
2.29B
-
4.63B
1.10M
2.20B
29.1M
1.33B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.60B
3.57B
8.20B
293.20M
1.73B
1.1B
8.60M
-
- 24900.00K
-
-
- 70000.00K
- 51400.00K
267.90M
146.50M
700.00K
1.38B
2.47B
1.09B
1.26B
- 10800.00K
1.25B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CBOE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$125.35
$195.65
$203.69
$212.06
$220.78