_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Catalyst Pharmaceuticals, Inc. (XNAS:CPRX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CPRX
Name:
CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:CPRX)
Sector:
8.48M
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Mr. Patrick McEnany
Total Employees:
76
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -56.89% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CATALYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC.(CPRX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.75
One Month Price Target:
$13.85
Six Month Price Target :
$14.36
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$14.97
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.69
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.87
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.69
This week:
$11.38
This month :
$9.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
1.42B
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
102.82M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.87%
-23.46%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.65
$16.35
$8.85
$11.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$15.60
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.11
$11.90
$12.39
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CPRX
Sharpe Ratio:
6.09%
Comparison:
CPRX, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 213.02% higher than the industry
& ratio is 167.04% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CPRX
Daily returns:
0.24%
Weekly returns:
1.22%
Monthly returns:
4.88%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 132.39% above industry average
Classification:
CPRX, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
CPRX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.87%
Weekly Volatility:
8.65%
Monthly Volatility:
17.30%
Yearly Volatility:
59.91%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.61%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -32.50% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.70%
Weekly VaR:
-17.21%
Monthly VaR:
-34.43%
How Much Can the price of
CPRX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.95
This translates to price declining to:
$2.06
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CPRX is a 143.00% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 108.17% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -18.65% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CPRX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.32
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.945
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.336
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.306
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.188
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.112
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.147
Beta is 15.26% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is 14.83% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
22.62%
Sustainable growth rate is -56.87% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.464
Alpha is 227.18% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2954% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CPRX
Equity cost of capital:
0.122
Equity cost of capital is 10.60% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.05%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.79
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.42
Annual revenue growth rate is 4764.52% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.42
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
6.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -39.13% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.44
-
-
Debt per share
$0.04
EBITDA per share
$0.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
CPRX
P/E Ratio:
27.46
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
840.83
P/E ratio is -96.73% lower than main peers & is -69.39% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $37.69
CPRX is -63.51% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
17.37
Price to sales ratio is -57.12% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.42
Price to free cash flow: 31.08
Price to free cash flow ratio is -60.38% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-215.27%
Net income growth rate is -405.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
1.73%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-79.12%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.54%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-70.55%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -96.34% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is -174% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.548
Statistical significance of correlation:
CPRX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 61.18% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.03
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.068
Kurtosis
6.755
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.066
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CPRX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
137%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
73.65%
Operating profit margin is -117.18% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
137%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.20%
Effective tax rate is 341.85% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
20.46%
Return on equity (ROE) is -135.69% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
18.24%
Return on assets (ROA) is -189.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
9.64
Current ratio is 19.12% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-0.9
Cash conversion cycle is -100.17% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.22%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates -34% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
793.9K
Each employee generates 106% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
592.9K
Each employee generates 363% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
111.6K
Each employee generates -24% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
339.2K
Each employee generates -24% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 2.66%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -174.22% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CPRX
CAREMAX, INC. (XNAS:CMAX)
BLUEBIRD BIO, INC. (XNAS:BLUE)
ABSCI CORPORATION (XNAS:ABSI)
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Inc. (XNAS:COLL)
CUTERA, INC. (XNAS:CUTR)
SINGULAR GENOMICS SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:OMIC)
IDEAYA BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:IDYA)
ADAGIO THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ADGI)
Repare Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:RPTX)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�17%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
81.40M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
23.09M
58.31M
17.33M
20.82M
53.34M
19.29M
21.88M
92.56M
-
-
96.00K
60.34M
59.95M
45.06M
60.24M
15.18M
45.06M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
34.00K
Differed Income Tax :
1.90M
Stock Based Compensation :
1.90M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8659.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 3933.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
58.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
8.48M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
178.37M
19.42M
197.80M
10.78M
7.83M
4.78M
221.19M
3.88M
-
-
-
21.89M
9.00K
25.78M
-
246.97M
5.14M
316.00K
1.05M
-
17.48M
22.94M
3.81M
-
3.81M
-
26.75M
103.00K
- 15620.00K
- 453.0K
236.19M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
93.77M
220.22M
246.97M
-
4.13M
- 174243.0K
-
-
-
-
-
- 2551.00K
-
1.00M
- 1551.00K
-
6.93M
178.37M
171.45M
8.48M
-
8.48M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CPRX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.04
$115.49
$125.76
$136.93
$149.10