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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Catalent, Inc. (XNYS:CTLT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CTLT
Name:
Catalent, Inc. (XNYS:CTLT)
Sector:
9.00M
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic
CEO:
Mr. John Chiminski
Total Employees:
19,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -5274.40% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CATALENT, INC.(CTLT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�SPECIALTY & GENERIC INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
87.58
One Month Price Target:
$88.25
Six Month Price Target :
$91.59
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$95.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$87.28
Price Upper limit ($) :
$88.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$82.91
This week:
$77.13
This month :
$66.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
16.01B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
179.90M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
13.05%
-18.74%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$109.25
$99.18
$65.91
$75.98
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$95.90
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$93.75
$79.23
$81.41
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CTLT
Sharpe Ratio:
3.84%
Comparison:
CTLT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 321.75% higher than the industry
& ratio is 68.63% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CTLT
Daily returns:
0.11%
Weekly returns:
0.55%
Monthly returns:
2.22%
Yearly returns:
14.20%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 87.26% above industry average
Classification:
CTLT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.43
Statistical test of Returns:
CTLT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.65%
Weekly Volatility:
5.93%
Monthly Volatility:
11.86%
Yearly Volatility:
41.09%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.51%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -42.99% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.34%
Weekly VaR:
-11.93%
Monthly VaR:
-23.87%
How Much Can the price of
CTLT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-82.68%
This translates to price declining to:
$70.21
This translates to price declining to:
$15.17
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CTLT is a 68.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 44.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.46% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CTLT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.36
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.947
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.339
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.754
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.894
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.986
Beta is 38.12% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.054
Beta is 29.17% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.05%
Sustainable growth rate is -56.44% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.141
Alpha is 268.43% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 899% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CTLT
Equity cost of capital:
0.125
Equity cost of capital is 20.31% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.25%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.25%
WACC is 6.69% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$26.14
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.6
Annual revenue growth rate is -86.58% below industry average
EPS:
$2.78
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
52.46%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 123.55% higher than the Drug Manufacturers�Specialty & Generic industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$23.49
EBITDA per share
$6.06
Valuation Analysis Today of
CTLT
P/E Ratio:
30.97
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.23
P/E ratio is 22.76% higher than main peers & is -22.49% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $111.09
CTLT is -21.16% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.35
Price to sales ratio is -52.68% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.6
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
446.48%
Net income growth rate is -181.49% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 0.78%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
96.46%
Net debt to equity ratio:
53.63%
Debt to assets ratio:
41.49%
Net debt to assets ratio:
23.07%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -19.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
8.86
Interest coverage ratio is 27.55% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
7.92%
Annual debt growth is 20% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.07%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.658
Statistical significance of correlation:
CTLT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.408
Stock price is 61.18% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.408
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.056
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.086
Kurtosis
6.553
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.303
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CTLT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
135%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
16.19%
Operating profit margin is -148.14% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
135%
Effective Tax Rate:
16.59%
Effective tax rate is 27.40% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is -217.84% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.04%
Return on assets (ROA) is -235.12% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
3.59
Current ratio is 8.86% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
75.5
Cash conversion cycle is -50.07% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
4.09%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
247.5K
Each employee generates -71% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
57.3K
Each employee generates -39% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
27.0K
Each employee generates -74% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
0.5K
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
329.1K
Each employee generates -101% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CTLT
BIO-RAD LABORATORIES, INC. (XNYS:BIO)
BIO-B
THE COOPER COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:COO)
Fresenius Medical Care AG & Co KGaA (XNYS:FMS)
WATERS CORPORATION (XNYS:WAT)
MOLINA HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNYS:MOH)
PERKINELMER, INC. (XNYS:PKI)
CHARLES RIVER LABORATORIES INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNYS:CRL)
STERIS PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:STE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�13%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
4.70B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.11B
1.59B
-
-
802.10M
-
44.00M
846.10M
-
122.90M
351.00M
1.09B
761.30M
513.40M
615.50M
102.10M
513.40M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
81.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 8000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
21.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 49000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
185.00M
Other Working Capital:
- 165000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
25.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
163.00M
Investments in PP&E:
- 154000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 29000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 4000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
1.97B
50.00M
2.02B
1.12B
653.00M
140.00M
3.93B
2.58B
2.53B
793.00M
-
70.00M
277.00M
6.25B
-
10.18B
363.00M
93.00M
25.00M
283.00M
357.00M
1.10B
4.23B
311.00M
4.71B
-
5.80B
2.00M
114.00M
- 329000.0K
4.23B
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
3.96B
4.38B
10.18B
-
4.32B
2.3B
20.00M
-
- 167000.00K
- 3000.00K
-
-
- 4000.00K
1.09B
1.08B
- 5000.00K
1.07B
1.97B
896.00M
163.00M
- 154000.00K
9.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CTLT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$119.30
$130.21
$142.12
$155.12
$169.31