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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cass Information Systems, Inc. (XNAS:CASS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CASS
Name:
CASS INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CASS)
Sector:
12.72M
Industry:
Specialty Business Services
CEO:
Mr. Eric Brunngraber
Total Employees:
884
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -32.55% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CASS INFORMATION SYSTEMS, INC.(CASS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SPECIALTY BUSINESS SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
35.98
One Month Price Target:
$36.1
Six Month Price Target :
$36.7
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$37.41
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$35.82
Price Upper limit ($) :
$36.11
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$34.2
This week:
$32.
This month :
$28.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
489.77M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
13.66M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.48%
-14.85%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$44.25
$40.52
$27.71
$31.44
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$39.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.51
$32.64
$33.45
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CASS
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.94%
Comparison:
CASS, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -429.27% lower than the industry
& is -185.09% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CASS
Daily returns:
-0.04%
Weekly returns:
-0.19%
Monthly returns:
-0.75%
Yearly returns:
5.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -273.72% below industry average
Classification:
CASS, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.55
Statistical test of Returns:
CASS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.39%
Weekly Volatility:
5.35%
Monthly Volatility:
10.69%
Yearly Volatility:
37.03%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.21%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -7.61% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.95%
Weekly VaR:
-11.06%
Monthly VaR:
-22.12%
How Much Can the price of
CASS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-76.64%
This translates to price declining to:
$28.78
This translates to price declining to:
$8.40
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CASS is a 56.15% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 33.78% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -9.12% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CASS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.59
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.553
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.782
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.075
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.507
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.835
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.031
Beta is -42.64% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.172
Beta is -49.54% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
5.29%
Sustainable growth rate is -84.98% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.162
Alpha is 170.22% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1032% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CASS
Equity cost of capital:
0.072
Equity cost of capital is -35.58% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
0.91%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.16
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.26
Annual revenue growth rate is 119.10% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.11
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-1.77%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -124.63% lower than the Specialty Business Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.97
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 25.23%
Equity growth rate per share is -92.04% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$3.05
Valuation Analysis Today of
CASS
P/E Ratio:
16.03
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
15.75
P/E ratio is 1.73% higher than main peers & is -42.60% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $58.91
CASS is -38.92% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $32.46
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $16.31
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.22
Price to sales ratio is -7.87% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.26
Price to free cash flow: 18.27
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
0.96%
Net income growth rate is -100.00% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.86%
Dividend yeild: 3.09%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.11
Expected next dividend best case: $0.28
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.27
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.37%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.28
2021-12-02--$0.28
2021-06-03--$0.27
2022-03-03--$0.28
2021-09-02--$0.27
2021-03-04--$0.27
Dividend growth rate is -96.94% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
825.92%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-10.33%
Debt to assets ratio:
89.20%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 43.51% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
39.2
Interest coverage ratio is 958.46% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.503
Statistical significance of correlation:
CASS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.646
Stock price is -22.07% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.646
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.018
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.025
Kurtosis
6.511
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.357
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CASS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
16.08%
Effective tax rate is -7.90% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is -58.66% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.23%
Return on assets (ROA) is -79.30% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
9.3x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.66%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
172.4K
Each employee generates -37% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
47.1K
Each employee generates -46% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
33.7K
Each employee generates -33% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
14.4K
Each employee generates 2% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.1M
Each employee generates 2% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CASS
Sterling Infrastructure, Inc. (XNAS:STRL)
MUDRICK CAPITAL ACQUISITION CORPORATION II (XNAS:MUDS)
AMMO, INC. (XNAS:POWW)
CROSS COUNTRY HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:CCRN)
UNIVERSAL LOGISTICS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ULH)
CRA INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:CRAI)
VEAC
NAPCO SECURITY TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:NSSC)
Air T Funding (XNAS:AIRTP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
152.42M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
99.40M
102.03M
-
-
-
46.95M
1.06M
5.11M
41.67M
-
29.79M
35.50M
5.71M
29.79M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.91M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.09M
Change in Working Capital :
545.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 726.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 640.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.92M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
14.72M
Investments in PP&E:
- 2002.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 156597.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
22.42M
943.64M
966.06M
-
-
-
-
19.09M
14.26M
2.43M
943.64M
-
-
979.42M
3.40B
2.42B
989.73M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
2.20B
2.20B
7.75M
116.65M
- 28122.0K
120.80M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
217.08M
2.42B
1.89B
-
- 22416.0K
16.19M
- 58682.00K
- 201087.00K
-
-
- 5086.00K
- 3832.00K
- 128197.00K
- 137115.00K
-
- 323479.00K
191.45M
514.93M
14.72M
- 2002.00K
12.72M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CASS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$39.85
$41.43
$43.08
$44.79
$46.57