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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Casey'S General Stores, Inc. (XNAS:CASY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CASY
Name:
CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC. (XNAS:CASY)
Sector:
196.51M
Industry:
Grocery Stores
CEO:
Mr. Darren Rebelez
Total Employees:
20,451
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -48.11% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CASEY'S GENERAL STORES, INC.(CASY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND GROCERY STORES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
213.24
One Month Price Target:
$214.18
Six Month Price Target :
$218.86
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$224.48
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$212.62
Price Upper limit ($) :
$214.14
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$204.22
This week:
$193.08
This month :
$172.92
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
8.02B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
37.25M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.78%
-14.46%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$255.05
$235.73
$171.43
$190.75
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$229.43
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$225.31
$196.99
$201.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CASY
Sharpe Ratio:
2.76%
Comparison:
CASY, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -27.54% lower than the industry
& ratio is 21.08% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CASY
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.33%
Monthly returns:
1.33%
Yearly returns:
23.09%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -30.81% below industry average
Classification:
CASY, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.65
Statistical test of Returns:
CASY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.09%
Weekly Volatility:
4.68%
Monthly Volatility:
9.35%
Yearly Volatility:
32.39%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.00%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -52.21% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.23%
Weekly VaR:
-9.45%
Monthly VaR:
-18.91%
How Much Can the price of
CASY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-65.50%
This translates to price declining to:
$179.21
This translates to price declining to:
$73.57
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CASY is a 33.45% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 14.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -12.93% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CASY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.78
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.64
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.906
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.478
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.554
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.701
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.798
Beta is -1.70% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.55
Beta is 42.59% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
12.28%
Sustainable growth rate is -38.64% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.075
Alpha is -53.92% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 474% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CASY
Equity cost of capital:
0.085
Equity cost of capital is 23.19% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.20%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$347.72
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.91
Annual revenue growth rate is -84.45% below industry average
EPS:
$9.10
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.72%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 2.21% higher than the Grocery Stores industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$12.33
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 25.99%
Equity growth rate per share is -431.34% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$45.16
EBITDA per share
$151.07
Valuation Analysis Today of
CASY
P/E Ratio:
23.44
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.43
P/E ratio is 27.18% higher than main peers & is 16.07% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $183.80
CASY is 16.02% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $33.74
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $18.46
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.61
Price to sales ratio is 6.17% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.91
Price to free cash flow: 17.30
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
0.25%
Net income growth rate is -99.94% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 3.71%
Dividend yeild: 0.65%
Previous Dividend: $0.35
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.35
Previous Dividend: $1.39
Expected next dividend best case: $0.36
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.34
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.33
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.92%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 16/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-29--$0.35
2021-10-29--$0.35
2021-04-30--$0.34
2022-01-31--$0.35
2021-07-30--$0.34
2021-01-29--$0.34
Dividend growth rate is -105.39% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
82.84%
Net debt to equity ratio:
74.72%
Debt to assets ratio:
33.14%
Net debt to assets ratio:
29.89%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.33% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.29%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.588
Statistical significance of correlation:
CASY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.311
Stock price is 89.16% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.311
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.026
Kurtosis
10.66
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.061
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CASY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
86%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.44%
Operating profit margin is 144.16% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
86%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.90%
Effective tax rate is 20.53% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.73%
Return on equity (ROE) is -13.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.69%
Return on assets (ROA) is 45.03% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
0.91
Current ratio is -28.30% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-15
Cash conversion cycle is -135.59% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.54%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
633.3K
Each employee generates 50% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
275.2K
Each employee generates 207% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
16.6K
Each employee generates 17% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
9.6K
Each employee generates 58% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
215.4K
Each employee generates 58% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CASY
Innovator Lddrd Alloc PB (BATS:BUFF)
PILGRIM'S PRIDE CORPORATION (XNAS:PPC)
COCA-COLA CONSOLIDATED, INC. (XNAS:COKE)
CHS Inc. (XNAS:CHSCN)
NEWELL BRANDS INC. (XNAS:NWL)
Oatly Group AB (XNAS:OTLY)
LANCASTER COLONY CORPORATION (XNAS:LANC)
BEYOND MEAT, INC. (XNAS:BYND)
SANDERSON FARMS, INC. (XNAS:SAFM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�13%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
12.95B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
10.19B
2.76B
-
-
-
-
2.11B
2.11B
-
-
5.19B
5.63B
575.57M
339.79M
440.73M
100.94M
339.79M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
75.89M
Differed Income Tax :
33.46M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.62M
Change in Working Capital :
5.84M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
2.55M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 1411.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
241.56M
Investments in PP&E:
- 45045.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 617291.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
7/31/21
2022
Q1
198.93M
-
198.93M
117.38M
338.08M
16.88M
671.27M
3.82B
440.42M
-
-
-
148.10M
4.40B
-
5.08B
453.51M
34.10M
-
-
253.33M
740.94M
1.68B
150.36M
2.30B
-
3.05B
50.46M
1.98B
-
-
July 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
12.30B
2.03B
5.08B
-
1.72B
1.5B
-
18.00M
- 644335.00K
- 4867.00K
-
-
- 12609.00K
282.64M
265.16M
-
- 137617.00K
198.93M
336.55M
241.56M
- 45045.00K
196.51M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CASY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$250.54
$263.75
$277.64
$292.27
$307.67