_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Carter'S, Inc. (XNYS:CRI) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CRI
Name:
CARTER'S, INC. (XNYS:CRI)
Sector:
- 171459.00K
Industry:
Apparel Retail
CEO:
Mr. Michael Casey
Total Employees:
15,900
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 25.65% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CARTER'S, INC.(CRI) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
72.74
One Month Price Target:
$73.27
Six Month Price Target :
$75.92
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$79.09
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$72.4
Price Upper limit ($) :
$73.07
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$68.7
This week:
$63.71
This month :
$54.67
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.79B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.00M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.37%
-15.11%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$91.50
$82.99
$53.98
$62.49
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$80.22
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.40
$65.24
$67.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CRI
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.66%
Comparison:
CRI, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -195.52% lower than the industry
& is -129.05% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CRI
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.05%
Monthly returns:
-0.18%
Yearly returns:
8.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -124.45% below industry average
Classification:
CRI, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.87
Statistical test of Returns:
CRI has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.70%
Weekly Volatility:
6.04%
Monthly Volatility:
12.07%
Yearly Volatility:
41.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.16%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -56.88% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.55%
Weekly VaR:
-12.42%
Monthly VaR:
-24.84%
How Much Can the price of
CRI
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-86.04%
This translates to price declining to:
$56.68
This translates to price declining to:
$10.16
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CRI is a 75.30% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 50.18% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -30.42% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CRI
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.829
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.172
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.731
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.756
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.739
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.306
Beta is -0.55% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.366
Beta is -4.93% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
27.30%
Sustainable growth rate is -33.13% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.142
Alpha is 289.82% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -905% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CRI
Equity cost of capital:
0.120
Equity cost of capital is -3.69% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.78%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.86%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.05%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.05%
WACC is 6.13% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$89.25
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.1
Annual revenue growth rate is -124.27% below industry average
EPS:
$7.53
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.81%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -53.20% lower than the Apparel Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.73
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -59.24%
Equity growth rate per share is 107.10% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$23.48
EBITDA per share
$14.30
Valuation Analysis Today of
CRI
P/E Ratio:
10.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
7.61
P/E ratio is 39.38% higher than main peers & is -22.86% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $103.51
CRI is -29.73% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $209.02
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $155.87
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.82
Price to sales ratio is -5.99% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.1
Price to free cash flow: 26.62
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-60.13%
Net income growth rate is -2.96% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 9.51%
Dividend yeild: 3.44%
Previous Dividend: $0.75
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.75
Previous Dividend: $2.50
Expected next dividend best case: $0.92
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.58
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.57
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 10.28%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 17/08/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/10/2022
Previous dividend record date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/05/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-27--$0.75
2021-11-30--$0.60
2021-05-11--$0.40
2022-03-07--$0.75
2021-08-30--$0.40
2020-03-05--$0.60
Dividend growth rate is -130.07% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
100.03%
Net debt to equity ratio:
93.51%
Debt to assets ratio:
30.92%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.90%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -51.97% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.28
Interest coverage ratio is -95.91% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
129.06%
Annual debt growth is -51% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.603
Statistical significance of correlation:
CRI has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.453
Stock price is 33.18% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.453
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.016
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.025
Kurtosis
5.359
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.026
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CRI
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
187%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.57%
Operating profit margin is 82.89% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
187%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.22%
Effective tax rate is -15.71% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
35.12%
Return on equity (ROE) is -15.15% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
10.86%
Return on assets (ROA) is 3.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.65
Current ratio is -5.33% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-25.3
Cash conversion cycle is -152.82% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.82%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
218.9K
Each employee generates -44% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
35.1K
Each employee generates -29% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
20.2K
Each employee generates -21% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 10.8K
Each employee generates -262% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
78.6K
Each employee generates -262% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CRI
FOOT LOCKER, INC. (XNYS:FL)
H & R BLOCK, INC. (XNYS:HRB)
ASBURY AUTOMOTIVE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:ABG)
VEONEER, INC. (XNYS:VNE)
MERITAGE HOMES CORPORATION (XNYS:MTH)
REVOLVE GROUP, INC. (XNYS:RVLV)
ALLISON TRANSMISSION HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:ALSN)
LCI INDUSTRIES (XNYS:LCII)
DILLARD'S, INC. (XNYS:DDS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�21%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
3.48B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.86B
1.63B
-
-
1.18B
-
- 28692.00K
1.15B
1.21M
60.08M
84.21M
557.63M
472.21M
321.49M
413.34M
91.86M
321.49M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.21M
Differed Income Tax :
7.76M
Stock Based Compensation :
5.86M
Change in Working Capital :
- 256673.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 32484.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 2899.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 163807.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
702.27M
-
702.27M
265.69M
679.73M
64.39M
1.71B
666.87M
212.52M
340.73M
-
-
29.08M
1.25B
-
2.96B
284.03M
642.57M
28.01M
-
111.08M
1.04B
915.60M
44.27M
1.01B
-
2.05B
406.00K
941.00M
- 26115.0K
-
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.01B
915.29M
2.96B
-
1.56B
855.9M
-
- 7652.00K
- 7652.00K
-
-
- 81119.00K
- 30573.00K
219.00K
- 111473.00K
904.00K
- 282028.00K
702.27M
984.29M
- 163807.00K
- 7652.00K
- 171459.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CRI
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$87.08
$94.68
$102.95
$111.94
$121.71