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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Carparts.Com, Inc. (XNAS:PRTS) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
PRTS
Name:
CARPARTS.COM, INC. (XNAS:PRTS)
Sector:
1.51M
Industry:
Internet Retail
CEO:
Mr. Lev Peker
Total Employees:
1,529
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -113.99% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CARPARTS.COM, INC.(PRTS) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
6.34
One Month Price Target:
$6.42
Six Month Price Target :
$6.85
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$7.36
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$6.3
Price Upper limit ($) :
$6.42
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.65
This week:
$4.79
This month :
$3.24
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
342.03M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
54.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
48.16%
-31.5%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$9.55
$8.05
$3.13
$4.63
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$7.56
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.24
$5.12
$5.44
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
PRTS
Sharpe Ratio:
5.35%
Comparison:
PRTS, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 74.34% higher than the industry
& ratio is 134.54% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
PRTS
Daily returns:
0.30%
Weekly returns:
1.51%
Monthly returns:
6.03%
Yearly returns:
37.29%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 94.07% above industry average
Classification:
PRTS, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.22
Statistical test of Returns:
PRTS has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.48%
Weekly Volatility:
12.24%
Monthly Volatility:
24.49%
Yearly Volatility:
84.82%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.16%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -24.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.94%
Weekly VaR:
-24.47%
Monthly VaR:
-48.94%
How Much Can the price of
PRTS
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-40%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$3.82
This translates to price declining to:
$0.95
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
PRTS is a 245.40% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 195.90% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 16.34% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
PRTS
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.39
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.258
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.779
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.694
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.265
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.459
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.657
Beta is 44.09% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.105
Beta is 13.45% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.529
Alpha is 168.02% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 3365% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
PRTS
Equity cost of capital:
0.195
Equity cost of capital is 11.04% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
13.84%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.20%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.74%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.74%
WACC is 52.42% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.08
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.35
Annual revenue growth rate is -59.12% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.11
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-39.20%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 930.94% higher than the Internet Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -86.87%
Equity growth rate per share is 323.96% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.73
EBITDA per share
$0.12
Valuation Analysis Today of
PRTS
P/E Ratio:
4.11
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
31.34
P/E ratio is -86.89% lower than main peers & is -75.36% lower than the industry
-
PRTS is -445.67% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.57
Price to sales ratio is -72.07% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.35
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-105.24%
Net income growth rate is -254.80% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
38.39%
Net debt to equity ratio:
26.73%
Debt to assets ratio:
14.84%
Net debt to assets ratio:
10.33%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -77.38% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.68
Interest coverage ratio is -45.56% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
203.23%
Annual debt growth is 590% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.16%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.361
Statistical significance of correlation:
PRTS has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.441
Stock price is -18.06% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.441
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.093
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.295
Kurtosis
12.26
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
1.35
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
PRTS
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
138%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-0.70%
Operating profit margin is -108.78% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
138%
Effective Tax Rate:
-6.74%
Effective tax rate is -174.38% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-5.34%
Return on equity (ROE) is -127.12% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-2.06%
Return on assets (ROA) is -170.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.63
Current ratio is -17.98% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-22.7
Cash conversion cycle is -134.75% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 19.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-72.81%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
394.8K
Each employee generates -48% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
4.3K
Each employee generates -98% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 3.6K
Each employee generates -102% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.0K
Each employee generates -37% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
45.8K
Each employee generates -37% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
PRTS
SPORTSMAN'S WAREHOUSE HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:SPWH)
Winmark Corporation (XNAS:WINA)
LANDS' END, INC. (XNAS:LE)
CARLOTZ, INC. (XNAS:LOTZ)
OneWater Marine Inc (XNAS:ONEW)
GAN LIMITED (XNAS:GAN)
LINDBLAD EXPEDITIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:LIND)
INTERFACE, INC. (XNAS:TILE)
BIG 5 SPORTING GOODS CORPORATION (XNAS:BGFV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
603.69M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
394.42M
209.27M
-
-
-
-
213.49M
213.49M
-
1.16M
10.58M
6.57M
- 4222.00K
- 5514.00K
- 5166.00K
348.00K
- 5514.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.99M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.02M
Change in Working Capital :
- 3847.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 1445.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
10.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
5.27M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3760.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
25.04M
-
25.04M
6.46M
157.94M
7.59M
197.02M
67.44M
-
-
-
-
2.63M
70.07M
-
267.08M
80.49M
12.99M
-
404.00K
26.73M
120.62M
39.63M
3.62M
43.25M
-
163.87M
57.00K
- 177697.00K
260.0K
-
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
607.91M
103.22M
267.08M
-
52.62M
27.6M
-
-
- 3760.00K
- 876.00K
431.00K
-
-
5.82M
5.38M
6.00K
6.89M
25.04M
18.14M
5.27M
- 3760.00K
1.51M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
PRTS
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$5.85
$6.78
$7.87
$9.14
$10.60