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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Carnival Corp (XNYS:CCL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CCL
Name:
Carnival Corp (XNYS:CCL)
Sector:
- 3942000.00K
Industry:
Travel Services
CEO:
Mr. Arnold Donald
Total Employees:
39,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -455.60% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CARNIVAL CORP(CCL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRAVEL SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
9.37
One Month Price Target:
$9.48
Six Month Price Target :
$10.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$10.65
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$9.27
Price Upper limit ($) :
$9.45
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$8.3
This week:
$6.97
This month :
$4.58
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
11.47B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.24B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
39.29%
-33.18%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.35
$12.10
$4.39
$6.64
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$11.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$10.89
$7.36
$7.85
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CCL
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.52%
Comparison:
CCL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -666.17% lower than the industry
& is -166.58% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CCL
Daily returns:
-0.08%
Weekly returns:
-0.38%
Monthly returns:
-1.50%
Yearly returns:
3.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -638.24% below industry average
Classification:
CCL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.12
Statistical test of Returns:
CCL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.53%
Weekly Volatility:
12.37%
Monthly Volatility:
24.74%
Yearly Volatility:
85.70%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.44%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.93% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.44%
Weekly VaR:
-25.57%
Monthly VaR:
-51.15%
How Much Can the price of
CCL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$5.05
This translates to price declining to:
$1.41
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CCL is a 260.99% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 209.26% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 21.29% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CCL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.148
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.623
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.508
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.467
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.31
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.31
Beta is 55.52% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.849
Beta is 10.14% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.351
Alpha is 181.71% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2236% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CCL
Equity cost of capital:
0.171
Equity cost of capital is 8.12% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.27%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.15%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.28%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.28%
WACC is -10.09% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.78
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.13
Annual revenue growth rate is 289.98% above the industry average
EPS:
-$8.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 200.31% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$25.00
EBITDA per share
-$4.39
Valuation Analysis Today of
CCL
P/E Ratio:
0
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
12.84
P/E ratio is -100.00% lower than main peers & is higher than the industry
-
CCL is -100.23% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $12.51
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.85
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.37
Price to sales ratio is -61.67% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.13
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-375.76%
Net income growth rate is -381.84% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 10.67%
Previous Dividend: $0.50
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.50
Previous Dividend: $1.00
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.50
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
-
-
-
Previous dividend payment date: 13/03/2020
Previous dividend record date: 21/02/2020
Previous dividend declaration date: 16/01/2020
Dividend History:
2020-02-20--$0.50
--$0.00
--$0.00
2019-11-21--$0.50
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
301.40%
Net debt to equity ratio:
289.16%
Debt to assets ratio:
58.33%
Net debt to assets ratio:
55.96%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -29.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-3.63
Interest coverage ratio is 29.36% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
21.94%
Annual debt growth is 164% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.59%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.556
Statistical significance of correlation:
CCL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.558
Stock price is -0.37% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.558
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.029
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.095
Kurtosis
8.304
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.006
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CCL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-263%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-200.06%
Operating profit margin is -44.49% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-263%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.23%
Effective tax rate is -99.72% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-89.04%
Return on equity (ROE) is 44.06% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-17.23%
Return on assets (ROA) is 49.79% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.4x
Current Ratio:
0.74
Current ratio is -53.84% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-8.6
Cash conversion cycle is -109.78% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-0.28%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
88.6K
Each employee generates -69% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 139.9K
Each employee generates 1573% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 235.4K
Each employee generates 241% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 101.1K
Each employee generates -603% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.2M
Each employee generates -603% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CCL
Magna International Inc. (XNYS:MGA)
TATA MOTORS LIMITED (XNYS:TTM)
Best Buy Co., Inc. (XNYS:BBY)
V.F. CORPORATION (XNYS:VFC)
LAS VEGAS SANDS CORP. (XNYS:LVS)
BALL CORPORATION (XNYS:BALL)
YUM CHINA HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:YUMC)
LB Group Co., Ltd. (XSHE:002601)
MGM RESORTS INTERNATIONAL (XNYS:MGM)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�38%
Buy�25%
Hold�38%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/31/22
Revenue:
3.46B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
6.21B
- 2749000.00K
-
-
1.54B
-
2.41B
3.94B
14.00M
1.50B
2.24B
- 5458000.00K
- 6914000.00K
- 9181000.00K
- 9202000.00K
- 21000.00K
- 9181000.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
554.00M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
26.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
187.00M
Other Non-Cash Items:
104.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 1212000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 2730000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 321000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
2/28/22
2022
Q1
6.41B
515.00M
6.93B
267.00M
392.00M
469.00M
8.06B
41.46B
579.00M
1.18B
-
-
2.00B
45.22B
90.45B
53.28B
772.00M
5.15B
-
3.37B
1.63B
10.92B
31.08B
973.00M
32.05B
-
42.97B
372.00M
4.49B
- 1486000.0K
6.93B
February 28, 2022 at 7:00:00 AM
10.15B
10.31B
53.28B
-
36.23B
29.8B
-
19.00M
- 3032000.00K
- 503000.00K
15.00M
-
-
2.22B
1.73B
- 8000.00K
- 2524000.00K
6.45B
8.98B
- 1212000.00K
- 2730000.00K
- 3942000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CCL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$10.68
$12.15
$13.81
$15.70
$17.85