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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Carlyle Secured Lending, Inc. (XNAS:CGBD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CGBD
Name:
CARLYLE SECURED LENDING, INC. (XNAS:CGBD)
Sector:
50.80M
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
Mr. Michael Hart
Total Employees:
0
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CARLYLE SECURED LENDING, INC.(CGBD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
14.23
One Month Price Target:
$14.36
Six Month Price Target :
$15.03
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$15.83
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$14.15
Price Upper limit ($) :
$14.32
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$13.21
This week:
$11.96
This month :
$9.68
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
711.96M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.85M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
45.38%
-27.11%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.95
$16.78
$9.51
$11.68
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$16.08
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$15.62
$12.38
$12.84
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CGBD
Sharpe Ratio:
1.66%
Comparison:
CGBD, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 106.09% higher than the industry
& is -27.30% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CGBD
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.34%
Monthly returns:
1.34%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 75.30% above industry average
Classification:
CGBD, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
CGBD has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.51%
Weekly Volatility:
7.86%
Monthly Volatility:
15.71%
Yearly Volatility:
54.44%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.98%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -43.73% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.15%
Weekly VaR:
-15.99%
Monthly VaR:
-31.97%
How Much Can the price of
CGBD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.32
This translates to price declining to:
$2.13
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CGBD is a 125.67% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 93.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 35.22% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CGBD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.67
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.894
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.264
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.818
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.553
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.825
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.036
Beta is 61.25% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -1.45% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
1.37%
Sustainable growth rate is -95.15% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.015
Alpha is -127.10% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 96% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CGBD
Equity cost of capital:
0.146
Equity cost of capital is -1.14% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.15%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.91%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.30%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.30%
WACC is 14.29% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.18
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.78
Annual revenue growth rate is -108.12% below industry average
EPS:
$2.57
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
37.13%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 33.67% higher than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.73
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -0.62%
Equity growth rate per share is -102.94% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$19.21
EBITDA per share
$3.60
Valuation Analysis Today of
CGBD
P/E Ratio:
7.28
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.84
P/E ratio is -68.13% lower than main peers & is -54.91% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $41.50
CGBD is -65.71% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.47
Price to sales ratio is -34.78% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.78
Price to free cash flow: 8.22
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
354.37%
Net income growth rate is 143.75% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 13.93%
Dividend yeild: 11.03%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.57
Expected next dividend best case: $0.52
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.28
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.30
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 67.21%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.40
2021-12-30--$0.07
2021-06-29--$0.36
2022-03-30--$0.40
2021-09-29--$0.06
2021-03-30--$0.37
Dividend growth rate is 1117.25% higher than the average industry
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
104.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
97.48%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.16%
Net debt to assets ratio:
46.66%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -4.03% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.44
Interest coverage ratio is -89.17% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
6.11%
Annual debt growth is -188% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 9.47%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.348
Statistical significance of correlation:
CGBD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -39.63% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.054
Kurtosis
54.606
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.638
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CGBD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.65%
Effective tax rate is -97.35% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
16.32%
Return on equity (ROE) is -35.44% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.81%
Return on assets (ROA) is 33.87% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CGBD
E.MERGE TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION CORP. (XNAS:ETAC)
BLUCORA, INC. (XNAS:BCOR)
HERITAGE COMMERCE CORP (XNAS:HTBK)
HUDSON EXECUTIVE INVESTMENT CORP. III (XNAS:HIII)
FLUSHING FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:FFIC)
AMTBB
AMERANT BANCORP INC. (XNAS:AMTB)
TRUSTCO BANK CORP N Y (XNAS:TRST)
AGC
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
165.14M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
36.40M
-
7.08M
7.08M
-
1.92M
9.00M
140.68M
28.95M
1.34M
186.44M
-
155.13M
156.14M
1.01M
155.13M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 5275.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
25.39M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
50.80M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
69.51M
-
69.51M
38.17M
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.87B
-
-
-
1.99B
1.99B
24.09M
-
-
-
-
-
996.14M
-
996.14M
2.03B
1.04B
527.00K
- 143778.00K
-
1.04B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
83.61M
950.54M
1.99B
-
996.14M
926.6M
-
-
-
- 104246.00K
-
- 7008.00K
- 21609.00K
58.50M
- 74363.00K
-
- 23562.00K
69.51M
93.07M
50.80M
-
50.80M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CGBD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$15.91
$40.52
$45.07
$50.13
$55.75