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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Carlisle Companies Incorporated (XNYS:CSL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CSL
Name:
CARLISLE COMPANIES INCORPORATED (XNYS:CSL)
Sector:
13.20M
Industry:
Building Products & Equipment
CEO:
Mr. Dale Koch
Total Employees:
11,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CARLISLE COMPANIES INCORPORATED(CSL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
295.96
One Month Price Target:
$297.69
Six Month Price Target :
$306.34
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$316.71
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$295.2
Price Upper limit ($) :
$297.41
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$282.9
This week:
$266.76
This month :
$237.56
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
15.41B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
51.72M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.8%
-12.38%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$356.47
$328.19
$235.45
$263.73
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$318.98
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$312.94
$272.86
$278.98
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CSL
Sharpe Ratio:
4.88%
Comparison:
CSL, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 95.61% higher than the industry
& ratio is 113.89% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CSL
Daily returns:
0.12%
Weekly returns:
0.58%
Monthly returns:
2.33%
Yearly returns:
21.19%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 31.79% above industry average
Classification:
CSL, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.45
Statistical test of Returns:
CSL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.21%
Weekly Volatility:
4.93%
Monthly Volatility:
9.86%
Yearly Volatility:
34.16%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.48%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -33.08% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.41%
Weekly VaR:
-9.87%
Monthly VaR:
-19.73%
How Much Can the price of
CSL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-68.35%
This translates to price declining to:
$248.28
This translates to price declining to:
$93.66
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CSL is a 39.27% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 19.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -28.60% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CSL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.04
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.764
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.081
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.513
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.721
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.727
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.022
Beta is 2.10% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.393
Beta is -25.08% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
11.08%
Sustainable growth rate is -66.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.176
Alpha is 107.43% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1122% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CSL
Equity cost of capital:
0.103
Equity cost of capital is -18.86% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.06%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.86%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.26%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.26%
WACC is -30.38% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$103.74
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.72
Annual revenue growth rate is -31.56% below industry average
EPS:
$10.61
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-4.24%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -151.87% lower than the Building Products & Equipment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.78
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 38.94%
Equity growth rate per share is -21.62% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$18.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
CSL
P/E Ratio:
21.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.2
P/E ratio is 31.58% higher than main peers & is -20.22% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $283.53
CSL is 4.38% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $33.14
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $22.90
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.85
Price to sales ratio is 0.37% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.72
Price to free cash flow: 61.97
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-20.32%
Net income growth rate is -123.92% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.10%
Dividend yeild: 0.73%
Previous Dividend: $0.54
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.54
Previous Dividend: $2.16
Expected next dividend best case: $0.55
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.53
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.52
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.79%
Expected next dividend payment date: 30/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 17/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-16--$0.54
2021-11-16--$0.54
2021-05-14--$0.53
2022-02-17--$0.54
2021-08-17--$0.54
2021-02-18--$0.53
Dividend growth rate is -95.85% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
131.11%
Net debt to equity ratio:
98.45%
Debt to assets ratio:
47.57%
Net debt to assets ratio:
36.01%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 0.23% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.49
Interest coverage ratio is -97.26% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
40.04%
Annual debt growth is 567% higher than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.729
Statistical significance of correlation:
CSL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is 20.68% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.072
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.092
Kurtosis
5.158
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.204
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CSL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
116%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.17%
Operating profit margin is -140.49% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
116%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.14%
Effective tax rate is -3.46% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
21.02%
Return on equity (ROE) is -5.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.69%
Return on assets (ROA) is -27.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.9x
Current Ratio:
2.45
Current ratio is -17.34% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
32.2
Cash conversion cycle is -2.01% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
487.8K
Each employee generates -18% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
87.4K
Each employee generates -31% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
51.2K
Each employee generates -35% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
1.2K
Each employee generates -87% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -87% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -8.94%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -118.00% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CSL
ROBERT HALF INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:RHI)
GRACO INC (XNYS:GGG)
GFL ENVIRONMENTAL INC. (XNYS:GFL)
SNAP-ON INCORPORATED (XNYS:SNA)
BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPORATION (XNYS:BAH)
WATSCO, INC. (XNYS:WSO)
Regal Rexnord Corporation (XNYS:RRX)
TREX COMPANY, INC. (XNYS:TREX)
China Eastern Airlines Corporation Limited (XNYS:CEA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.37B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.81B
1.56B
51.80M
-
750.40M
-
- 1600.00K
800.60M
900.00K
83.70M
171.90M
961.40M
760.10M
563.10M
674.90M
142.70M
563.10M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
-
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
44.30M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
44.30M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 24700.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
291.70M
-
291.70M
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
7.32B
7.32B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
4.64B
4.64B
-
-
- 101400.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
4.61B
2.68B
7.32B
-
2.93B
2.6B
10.30M
95.60M
81.20M
-
-
- 125000.00K
- 28700.00K
- 5100.00K
- 158800.00K
600.00K
- 32700.00K
291.70M
324.40M
44.30M
- 31100.00K
13.20M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CSL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$293.24
$313.81
$335.81
$359.35
$384.55