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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cargurus, Inc. (XNAS:CARG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CARG
Name:
CARGURUS, INC. (XNAS:CARG)
Sector:
89.32M
Industry:
Internet Content & Information
CEO:
Mr. Langley Steinert
Total Employees:
1,203
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -81.70% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CARGURUS, INC.(CARG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
19.08
One Month Price Target:
$19.25
Six Month Price Target :
$20.11
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$21.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$18.94
Price Upper limit ($) :
$19.21
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$17.46
This week:
$15.46
This month :
$11.84
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.26B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
118.69M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
43.96%
-26.54%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.59
$23.18
$11.57
$14.98
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$22.07
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.35
$16.08
$16.81
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CARG
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.48%
Comparison:
CARG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -1643.64% lower than the industry
& is -121.18% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CARG
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.06%
Monthly returns:
-0.22%
Yearly returns:
0.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -2075.13% below industry average
Classification:
CARG, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.28
Statistical test of Returns:
CARG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.12%
Weekly Volatility:
9.22%
Monthly Volatility:
18.44%
Yearly Volatility:
63.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -40.54% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.48%
Weekly VaR:
-18.96%
Monthly VaR:
-37.92%
How Much Can the price of
CARG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-34%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$12.66
This translates to price declining to:
$2.86
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CARG is a 167.67% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 129.31% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 0.69% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CARG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.927
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.311
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.485
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.841
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.835
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.141
Beta is 41.36% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.399
Beta is 15.28% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.74%
Sustainable growth rate is -58.13% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.168
Alpha is 33.77% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -1073% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CARG
Equity cost of capital:
0.142
Equity cost of capital is 11.50% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
13.08%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$10.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.21
Annual revenue growth rate is -39.63% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.73
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.07
-
-
Debt per share
$0.46
EBITDA per share
$1.60
Valuation Analysis Today of
CARG
P/E Ratio:
34.94
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29.62
P/E ratio is 17.96% higher than main peers & is -7.88% lower than the industry
-
CARG is -168.92% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.87
Price to sales ratio is -63.36% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.21
Price to free cash flow: 17.79
Price to free cash flow ratio is -15.73% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
61.66%
Net income growth rate is -177.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
11.69%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-53.38%
Debt to assets ratio:
5.75%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-26.24%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -86.83% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
1.16%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.03%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.364
Statistical significance of correlation:
CARG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.473
Stock price is -23.02% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.473
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.013
Kurtosis
24.647
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.831
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CARG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
245%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.32%
Operating profit margin is 2082.33% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
245%
Effective Tax Rate:
26.84%
Effective tax rate is 108.79% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
22.97%
Return on equity (ROE) is -366.05% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.29%
Return on assets (ROA) is 626.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
3.85
Current ratio is 7.45% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-53.4
Cash conversion cycle is -179.03% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
13.25%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.0M
Each employee generates 13% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
158.0K
Each employee generates 51% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
88.8K
Each employee generates 100% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
74.3K
Each employee generates -26% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
310.1K
Each employee generates -26% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 24.14%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -510.43% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CARG
IHEARTMEDIA, INC. (XNAS:IHRT)
VEON Ltd. (XNAS:VEON)
VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP. (XNAS:VG)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILA)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILAK)
Hello Group Inc. (XNAS:MOMO)
DOUYU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:DOYU)
COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CCOI)
Cimpress plc (XNAS:CMPR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.21B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
518.69M
691.92M
111.91M
110.29M
420.27M
309.98M
10.61M
542.79M
26.00K
-
43.00M
190.02M
149.14M
106.79M
149.89M
40.23M
106.79M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.19M
Differed Income Tax :
- 13091.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
14.15M
Change in Working Capital :
58.94M
Accounts Receivables:
39.97M
Other Working Capital:
- 3002.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
3.04M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
93.06M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1230.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
315.01M
60.00M
375.01M
144.72M
20.99M
32.00M
572.72M
90.46M
158.00M
76.16M
-
26.44M
22.03M
373.09M
-
945.81M
61.87M
12.50M
25.89M
12.78M
61.76M
148.91M
54.36M
37.90M
92.28M
-
241.19M
118.00K
67.17M
- 892.0K
398.47M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.06B
464.87M
706.06M
-
66.86M
- 248143.0K
30.00M
- 2506.00K
26.26M
- 19.00K
-
-
-
- 36875.00K
- 36894.00K
- 212.00K
82.22M
330.50M
248.28M
93.06M
- 3736.00K
89.32M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CARG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.26
$7.45
$8.26
$9.16
$10.15