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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Caretrust Reit, Inc. (XNYS:CTRE) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CTRE
Name:
CARETRUST REIT, INC. (XNYS:CTRE)
Sector:
32.66M
Industry:
REIT�Healthcare Facilities
CEO:
Mr. Gregory Stapley
Total Employees:
16
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 88.86% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CARETRUST REIT, INC.(CTRE) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�HEALTHCARE FACILITIES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
21.21
One Month Price Target:
$21.34
Six Month Price Target :
$22.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$22.81
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$21.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$21.35
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$19.67
This week:
$17.77
This month :
$14.32
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.06B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
97.03M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
54.38%
-30.66%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.36
$25.08
$14.06
$17.34
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.01
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.31
$18.40
$19.11
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CTRE
Sharpe Ratio:
1.49%
Comparison:
CTRE, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -1007.34% lower than the industry
& is -34.84% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CTRE
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.24%
Yearly returns:
0.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 3251.45% above industry average
Classification:
CTRE, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.65
Statistical test of Returns:
CTRE has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.56%
Weekly Volatility:
7.97%
Monthly Volatility:
15.94%
Yearly Volatility:
55.23%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.94%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.64% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.26%
Weekly VaR:
-16.23%
Monthly VaR:
-32.47%
How Much Can the price of
CTRE
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.27
This translates to price declining to:
$3.18
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CTRE is a 129.14% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 96.30% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 9.40% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CTRE
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.12
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.802
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.134
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.902
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.132
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.283
Beta is -12.63% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.031
Beta is 8.76% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.040
Alpha is -140.98% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 255% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CTRE
Equity cost of capital:
0.108
Equity cost of capital is 6.06% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.39%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.67%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.67%
WACC is 2.77% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.44
Annual revenue growth rate is 204.32% above the industry average
EPS:
$0.08
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.73%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 72.53% higher than the REIT�Healthcare Facilities industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.51
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 32.27%
Equity growth rate per share is -263.06% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.12
EBITDA per share
$0.90
Valuation Analysis Today of
CTRE
P/E Ratio:
290.15
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
33.26
P/E ratio is 772.43% higher than main peers & is 77.53% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $13.08
CTRE is 62.22% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $24.05
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $12.62
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
10.78
Price to sales ratio is 66.34% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.44
Price to free cash flow: 14.00
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
2.75%
Net income growth rate is -105.26% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 316.38%
Dividend yeild: 5.09%
Previous Dividend: $0.28
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.28
Previous Dividend: $1.08
Expected next dividend best case: $0.29
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.26
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.26
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.09%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 15/09/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 17/06/2022
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.28
2021-12-30--$0.27
2021-06-29--$0.27
2022-03-30--$0.28
2021-09-29--$0.27
2021-03-30--$0.27
Dividend growth rate is -112.22% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
70.29%
Net debt to equity ratio:
79.58%
Debt to assets ratio:
37.25%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.17%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -30.63% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
3.69
Interest coverage ratio is 98.30% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
23.42%
Annual debt growth is 186% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.513
Statistical significance of correlation:
CTRE has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.578
Stock price is -11.26% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.578
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.013
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.026
Kurtosis
89.315
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
3.793
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CTRE
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
390%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
52.36%
Operating profit margin is 202.32% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
390%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.97%
Return on equity (ROE) is -72.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.52%
Return on assets (ROA) is -70.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.12
Current ratio is -67.41% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
4.6
Cash conversion cycle is -80.51% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 14.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
18.48%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
11.9M
Each employee generates 21% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
5.5M
Each employee generates -13% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
514.5K
Each employee generates -75% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
2.0M
Each employee generates 117% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
88.7M
Each employee generates 117% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CTRE
RETAIL OPPORTUNITY INVESTMENTS CORP. (XNAS:ROIC)
MEDALIST DIVERSIFIED REIT, INC. (XNAS:MDRRP)
INDUSTRIAL LOGISTICS PROPERTIES TRUST (XNAS:ILPT)
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMT)
UNITI GROUP INC. (XNAS:UNIT)
NEW YORK MORTGAGE TRUST, INC. (XNAS:NYMTN)
NYMTP
OFFICE PROPERTIES INCOME TRUST (XNAS:OPI)
NYMTO
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�8%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
190.96M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.75M
186.21M
-
26.95M
26.95M
-
59.29M
86.23M
2.12M
23.66M
55.50M
87.39M
99.98M
8.23M
8.23M
-
8.23M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
13.59M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.52M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2104.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
64.83M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
34.58M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1918.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
26.59M
-
26.59M
1.11M
-
147.38M
175.08M
-
-
2.66M
-
-
1.42B
1.42B
-
1.59B
23.79M
105.00M
-
-
26.90M
155.69M
593.67M
-
593.67M
-
749.36M
965.00K
- 351968.00K
-
1.20B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
90.98M
844.58M
1.59B
-
698.67M
672.1M
-
- 22154.00K
- 24072.00K
-
-
-
- 26044.00K
22.23M
- 3816.00K
-
6.69M
26.59M
19.90M
34.58M
- 1918.00K
32.66M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CTRE
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$21.68
$23.31
$25.07
$26.95
$28.98