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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Caredx, Inc. (XNAS:CDNA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CDNA
Name:
CAREDX, INC. (XNAS:CDNA)
Sector:
- 30031.00K
Industry:
Diagnostics & Research
CEO:
Dr. Peter Maag
Total Employees:
633
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -171.89% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CAREDX, INC.(CDNA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DIAGNOSTICS & RESEARCH INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
18.33
One Month Price Target:
$18.43
Six Month Price Target :
$18.95
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$19.57
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$18.2
Price Upper limit ($) :
$18.49
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.57
This week:
$14.39
This month :
$10.46
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
931.78M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
53.46M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.48%
-27.5%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.50
$22.75
$10.16
$13.91
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$21.53
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$20.73
$15.12
$15.93
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CDNA
Sharpe Ratio:
1.75%
Comparison:
CDNA, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -30.54% lower than the industry
& is -23.26% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CDNA
Daily returns:
0.09%
Weekly returns:
0.46%
Monthly returns:
1.83%
Yearly returns:
27.92%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -21.42% below industry average
Classification:
CDNA, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.08
Statistical test of Returns:
CDNA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.72%
Weekly Volatility:
10.55%
Monthly Volatility:
21.11%
Yearly Volatility:
73.12%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
5.83%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 23.43% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.60%
Weekly VaR:
-21.47%
Monthly VaR:
-42.94%
How Much Can the price of
CDNA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-37%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$11.56
This translates to price declining to:
$2.75
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CDNA is a 203.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 159.63% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 22.24% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CDNA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.00
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.818
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.157
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.97
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.549
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.047
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.023
Beta is -1.85% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.181
Beta is -14.97% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.119
Alpha is -28.61% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 758% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CDNA
Equity cost of capital:
0.100
Equity cost of capital is -10.77% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.68%
Before-tax cost of debt:
0.93%
After-tax cost of debt:
0.73%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
0.73%
WACC is 11.75% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.77
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.14
Annual revenue growth rate is 36.32% above the industry average
EPS:
-$0.94
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
4.30%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -83.98% lower than the Diagnostics & Research industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.31
EBITDA per share
-$0.71
Valuation Analysis Today of
CDNA
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
825.06
-
-
CDNA is -152.45% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.18
Price to sales ratio is -66.57% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.14
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-55.64%
Net income growth rate is -75.66% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-33.10%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.06%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-27.70%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -93.70% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-200.09
Interest coverage ratio is 613.34% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
17.95%
Annual debt growth is -83% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.521
Statistical significance of correlation:
CDNA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.488
Stock price is 6.79% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.488
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.067
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.185
Kurtosis
3.094
Returns are, approximately, normally distributed (mesokurtic)
Skewness of returns:
-0.127
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CDNA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
267%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-15.54%
Operating profit margin is -86.19% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
267%
Effective Tax Rate:
2.31%
Effective tax rate is -87.95% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-10.85%
Return on equity (ROE) is -151.62% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-9.08%
Return on assets (ROA) is -96.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
6.15
Current ratio is 23.73% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
39.5
Cash conversion cycle is -20.45% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-21.43%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
487.2K
Each employee generates 31% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 59.7K
Each employee generates -299% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 78.4K
Each employee generates -590% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 47.4K
Each employee generates 2080% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
213.6K
Each employee generates 2080% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 56.36%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -3230.47% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CDNA
BIOCRYST PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:BCRX)
CYTEK BIOSCIENCES, INC. (XNAS:CTKB)
Valneva SE (XNAS:VALN)
MYRIAD GENETICS, INC. (XNAS:MYGN)
LUMIRADX LIMITED (XNAS:LMDX)
BridgeBio Pharma, Inc. (XNAS:BBIO)
ALIGNMENT HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNAS:ALHC)
ALLSCRIPTS HEALTHCARE SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNAS:MDRX)
CORCEPT THERAPEUTICS INCORPORATED (XNAS:CORT)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�13%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
308.41M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
102.69M
205.72M
82.40M
86.30M
171.24M
84.94M
-
253.64M
223.00K
189.00K
12.79M
- 37817.00K
- 47921.00K
- 49623.00K
- 50798.00K
- 1175.00K
- 49623.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
3.53M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
10.63M
Change in Working Capital :
- 16671.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 5591.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 14851.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
683.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 21468.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 148522.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
171.89M
147.33M
319.22M
65.32M
18.21M
8.73M
411.49M
44.69M
36.98M
48.15M
-
-
5.41M
135.22M
-
546.71M
10.61M
3.70M
-
3.94M
48.68M
66.92M
16.73M
5.32M
22.25M
-
89.17M
52.00K
- 402837.00K
- 5090.0K
865.42M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
356.33M
457.54M
546.71M
-
20.43M
- 151466.0K
1.05M
- 8563.00K
- 156032.00K
-
-
-
-
865.00K
865.00K
45.00K
- 176590.00K
172.11M
348.70M
- 21468.00K
- 8563.00K
- 30031.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CDNA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$19.63
$20.96
$22.37
$23.88
$25.49