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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cardlytics, Inc. (XNAS:CDLX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CDLX
Name:
CARDLYTICS, INC. (XNAS:CDLX)
Sector:
- 22451.00K
Industry:
Internet Content & Information
CEO:
Mr. Scott Grimes
Total Employees:
710
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -60.52% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CARDLYTICS, INC.(CDLX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTERNET CONTENT & INFORMATION INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
11.87
One Month Price Target:
$12.01
Six Month Price Target :
$12.7
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.53
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$11.75
Price Upper limit ($) :
$11.97
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$10.53
This week:
$8.87
This month :
$5.86
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
387.16M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
32.89M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
33.98%
-36.72%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.11
$15.30
$5.63
$8.44
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.38
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$13.78
$9.35
$9.96
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CDLX
Sharpe Ratio:
-1.55%
Comparison:
CDLX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -5058.21% lower than the industry
& is -168.04% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CDLX
Daily returns:
-0.08%
Weekly returns:
-0.38%
Monthly returns:
-1.52%
Yearly returns:
0.13%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -13679.35% below industry average
Classification:
CDLX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.71
Statistical test of Returns:
CDLX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.47%
Weekly Volatility:
12.24%
Monthly Volatility:
24.48%
Yearly Volatility:
84.81%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
2.14%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -60.95% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-11.32%
Weekly VaR:
-25.31%
Monthly VaR:
-50.62%
How Much Can the price of
CDLX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-46%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$6.45
This translates to price declining to:
$1.78
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CDLX is a 257.28% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 206.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 33.67% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CDLX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.08
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.196
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.691
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.536
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.656
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.185
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.185
Beta is 75.74% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.399
Beta is 48.93% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.357
Alpha is 183.18% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2271% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CDLX
Equity cost of capital:
0.174
Equity cost of capital is 36.82% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.85%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.77%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.40%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.40%
WACC is 36.80% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.57
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.55
Annual revenue growth rate is -97.09% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.19
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
76.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 207.40% higher than the Internet Content & Information industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$7.00
EBITDA per share
-$0.65
Valuation Analysis Today of
CDLX
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.21
-
-
CDLX is -114.29% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.39
Price to sales ratio is -72.86% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.55
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
43.46%
Net income growth rate is -154.95% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
32.35%
Net debt to equity ratio:
3.96%
Debt to assets ratio:
18.70%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.29%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -57.16% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-5.14
Interest coverage ratio is -142.53% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
14.86%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.01%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.51
Statistical significance of correlation:
CDLX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.473
Stock price is 7.66% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.473
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.046
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.147
Kurtosis
8.519
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.238
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CDLX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
216%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-22.46%
Operating profit margin is -4078.71% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
216%
Effective Tax Rate:
-10.02%
Effective tax rate is -177.94% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-9.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is 14.94% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-5.74%
Return on assets (ROA) is -469.27% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.2x
Current Ratio:
1.29
Current ratio is -63.84% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
144.8
Cash conversion cycle is 114.11% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-19.23%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
396.9K
Each employee generates -56% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 30.2K
Each employee generates -129% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 99.5K
Each employee generates -324% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 31.6K
Each employee generates -132% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.3M
Each employee generates -132% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 117.34%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -2094.78% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CDLX
VONAGE HOLDINGS CORP. (XNAS:VG)
LIBERTY LATIN AMERICA LTD. (XNAS:LILA)
CARGURUS, INC. (XNAS:CARG)
IHEARTMEDIA, INC. (XNAS:IHRT)
VEON Ltd. (XNAS:VEON)
Hello Group Inc. (XNAS:MOMO)
COGENT COMMUNICATIONS HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CCOI)
DOUYU INTERNATIONAL HOLDINGS LIMITED (XNAS:DOYU)
Cimpress plc (XNAS:CMPR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
281.81M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
117.87M
163.95M
44.18M
74.47M
144.91M
70.44M
9.99M
199.08M
205.00K
4.18M
37.12M
- 21470.00K
- 63294.00K
- 70631.00K
- 78495.00K
7.86M
- 70631.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
11.39M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
13.59M
Change in Working Capital :
- 14973.00K
Accounts Receivables:
15.28M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 62728.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 19691.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 397.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 2274.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
208.29M
-
208.29M
102.25M
-
8.90M
319.44M
19.16M
747.58M
141.76M
-
-
2.64M
911.13M
1.82B
1.23B
3.84M
6.25M
-
3.12M
233.58M
246.79M
230.22M
42.34M
272.72M
-
519.51M
9.00K
- 478268.00K
1.9M
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
392.60M
711.67M
1.23B
-
236.47M
28.2M
-
- 2363.00K
- 5034.00K
- 13.00K
195.00K
-
-
-
182.00K
- 634.00K
- 25177.00K
208.39M
233.56M
- 19691.00K
- 2760.00K
- 22451.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CDLX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$13.57
$15.47
$17.64
$20.11
$22.92