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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cardiovascular Systems, Inc. (XNAS:CSII) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CSII
Name:
CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC. (XNAS:CSII)
Sector:
- 11887.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Scott Ward
Total Employees:
725
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -26.28% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CARDIOVASCULAR SYSTEMS, INC.(CSII) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
13.1
One Month Price Target:
$13.17
Six Month Price Target :
$13.53
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$13.95
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$13.01
Price Upper limit ($) :
$13.15
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$12.26
This week:
$11.22
This month :
$9.34
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
541.97M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
40.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.06%
-16.02%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$17.01
$15.27
$9.19
$10.93
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$14.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.33
$11.49
$11.87
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CSII
Sharpe Ratio:
-4.48%
Comparison:
CSII, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -395.80% lower than the industry
& is -296.57% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CSII
Daily returns:
-0.13%
Weekly returns:
-0.64%
Monthly returns:
-2.57%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -300.77% below industry average
Classification:
CSII, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.17
Statistical test of Returns:
CSII has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.06%
Weekly Volatility:
6.85%
Monthly Volatility:
13.71%
Yearly Volatility:
47.48%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.46%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -52.43% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.42%
Weekly VaR:
-14.36%
Monthly VaR:
-28.72%
How Much Can the price of
CSII
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$9.58
This translates to price declining to:
$1.97
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CSII is a 102.74% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 73.69% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -2.38% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CSII
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.97
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.709
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.003
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.897
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.406
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.703
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.223
Beta is -20.85% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is -9.12% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.406
Alpha is -926.50% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -2585% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CSII
Equity cost of capital:
0.098
Equity cost of capital is -6.37% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.06%
Before-tax cost of debt:
6.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.74%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.74%
WACC is 21.97% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$5.97
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.04
Annual revenue growth rate is -99.51% below industry average
EPS:
-$0.83
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
359.97%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 3008.44% higher than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.50
EBITDA per share
-$0.67
Valuation Analysis Today of
CSII
P/E Ratio:
912.02
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
-
- & is 274.48% higher than the industry
-
CSII is -106.48% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.19
Price to sales ratio is -76.44% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.04
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-769.13%
Net income growth rate is -891.89% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
7.80%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-17.61%
Debt to assets ratio:
6.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-13.95%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -84.05% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-22.14
Interest coverage ratio is -265.99% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
7.22%
Annual debt growth is -97% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.282
Statistical significance of correlation:
CSII has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is -39.78% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.051
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.09
Kurtosis
4
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.295
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CSII
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
290%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-12.76%
Operating profit margin is -25.25% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
290%
Effective Tax Rate:
-1.01%
Effective tax rate is -101.84% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-12.36%
Return on equity (ROE) is 26.06% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-9.79%
Return on assets (ROA) is 190.39% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
6.11
Current ratio is -5.42% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
25.2
Cash conversion cycle is -54.91% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 9.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-17.44%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
337.5K
Each employee generates -10% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 37.6K
Each employee generates -701% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 44.9K
Each employee generates 51% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 16.4K
Each employee generates 15% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
95.4K
Each employee generates 15% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -5.29%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 3935.18% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CSII
INOVIO PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:INO)
Edgewise Therapeutics Inc (XNAS:EWTX)
Kronos Bio Inc (XNAS:KRON)
Tinkoff Nasdaq Biotekh BPIFRFI (MISX:TBIO)
Zealand Pharma A/S (XNAS:ZEAL)
IMMUNOGEN, INC. (XNAS:IMGN)
ALPHATEC HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:ATEC)
NANO-X IMAGING LTD (XNAS:NNOX)
908 DEVICES INC. (XNAS:MASS)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
244.71M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
67.81M
176.91M
37.19M
-
169.65M
-
954.00K
207.79M
206.00K
1.23M
3.72M
- 27256.71K
- 31230.00K
- 32528.00K
- 32203.00K
325.00K
- 32528.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.26M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
5.67M
Change in Working Capital :
- 9481.00K
Accounts Receivables:
3.58M
Other Working Capital:
- 538.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
385.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 10784.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 1700.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 38512.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
66.86M
120.75M
187.62M
36.45M
33.13M
5.94M
263.14M
28.79M
-
16.77M
-
-
23.57M
69.13M
-
332.27M
12.91M
-
1.33M
2.49M
27.64M
43.04M
20.53M
3.95M
26.04M
-
69.08M
39.00K
- 394988.00K
- 6.0K
-
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
261.15M
263.19M
332.27M
-
20.53M
- 46337.0K
52.92M
- 1103.00K
11.61M
-
-
-
-
- 5028.00K
- 5028.00K
-
- 4206.00K
66.86M
71.07M
- 10784.00K
- 1103.00K
- 11887.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CSII
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$13.99
$14.90
$15.87
$16.91
$18.00