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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cara Therapeutics, Inc. (XNAS:CARA) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CARA
Name:
CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:CARA)
Sector:
- 25568.00K
Industry:
Biotechnology
CEO:
Dr. Derek Chalmers
Total Employees:
84
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is 37.01% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CARA THERAPEUTICS, INC.(CARA) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BIOTECHNOLOGY INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
10.64
One Month Price Target:
$10.7
Six Month Price Target :
$10.97
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$11.31
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$10.57
Price Upper limit ($) :
$10.72
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$9.75
This week:
$8.65
This month :
$6.65
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
557.68M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
53.73M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.76%
-45.44%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$14.78
$12.89
$6.50
$8.39
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$12.28
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$11.87
$9.00
$9.41
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CARA
Sharpe Ratio:
0.46%
Comparison:
CARA, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -76.32% lower than the industry
& is -79.80% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CARA
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.14%
Monthly returns:
0.55%
Yearly returns:
25.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -73.64% below industry average
Classification:
CARA, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.81
Statistical test of Returns:
CARA has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.10%
Weekly Volatility:
9.16%
Monthly Volatility:
18.32%
Yearly Volatility:
63.46%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.85%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -5.92% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.38%
Weekly VaR:
-18.75%
Monthly VaR:
-37.50%
How Much Can the price of
CARA
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-33%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$7.15
This translates to price declining to:
$1.60
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CARA is a 164.65% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 126.72% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -13.85% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CARA
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.93
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.789
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.116
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.985
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.899
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.02
Beta is -8.32% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.152
Beta is -18.84% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
10.72%
Sustainable growth rate is -79.56% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.029
Alpha is -120.47% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -185% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CARA
Equity cost of capital:
0.096
Equity cost of capital is -13.46% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$0.48
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.8
Annual revenue growth rate is -96.34% below industry average
EPS:
-$1.79
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-11.26%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -212.83% lower than the Biotechnology industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.03
EBITDA per share
-$1.73
Valuation Analysis Today of
CARA
P/E Ratio:
26.29
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
3.36
P/E ratio is 681.94% higher than main peers & is -70.70% lower than the industry
-
CARA is -106.62% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
22.09
Price to sales ratio is -45.47% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.8
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-15.44%
Net income growth rate is -121.87% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-8.87%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.65%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-8.09%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.46% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-
-
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-30.37%
Annual debt growth is -122% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.41
Statistical significance of correlation:
CARA has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.34
Stock price is 20.60% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.34
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.011
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.026
Kurtosis
25.083
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.604
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CARA
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
57%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-360.98%
Operating profit margin is -15.79% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
57%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-45.51%
Return on equity (ROE) is -20.63% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-41.49%
Return on assets (ROA) is 103.37% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
8.29
Current ratio is 2.47% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-6.14%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
308.1K
Each employee generates -81% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
- 1104.4K
Each employee generates -387% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 1105.8K
Each employee generates -964% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 304.4K
Each employee generates -307% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
858.4K
Each employee generates -307% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -23.32%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 549.98% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CARA
ESPERION THERAPEUTICS, INC. (XNAS:ESPR)
KARYOPHARM THERAPEUTICS INC. (XNAS:KPTI)
GOSSAMER BIO, INC. (XNAS:GOSS)
TARSUS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:TARS)
IVERIC bio, Inc. (XNAS:ISEE)
CRINETICS PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:CRNX)
MEIRAGTX HOLDINGS PLC (XNAS:MGTX)
COMPUGEN LTD. (XNAS:CGEN)
KALVISTA PHARMACEUTICALS, INC. (XNAS:KALV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
25.88M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
2.08M
2.71M
84.84M
32.27M
32.27M
-
126.00K
117.24M
-
-
248.00K
- 92772.00K
- 93433.00K
- 92889.00K
- 92889.00K
-
- 92889.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
63.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
5.70M
Change in Working Capital :
- 4179.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 2496.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
636.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 25525.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 43.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 10526.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
21.36M
119.75M
141.11M
3.63M
1.91M
5.11M
151.76M
3.24M
-
-
68.46M
-
408.00K
72.10M
-
223.87M
5.59M
1.80M
-
-
10.91M
18.30M
1.46M
-
1.46M
-
19.75M
53.00K
- 508507.00K
- 1723.0K
714.29M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
119.32M
204.12M
223.87M
188.21M
3.25M
- 18112.0K
44.00M
-
33.43M
-
-
-
-
3.00K
3.00K
-
7.91M
21.77M
13.86M
- 25525.00K
- 43.00K
- 25568.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CARA
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$11.35
$12.06
$12.82
$13.62
$14.48