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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Capital City Bank Group, Inc. (XNAS:CCBG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CCBG
Name:
CAPITAL CITY BANK GROUP, INC. (XNAS:CCBG)
Sector:
16.96M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. William Smith
Total Employees:
718
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1463.36% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CAPITAL CITY BANK GROUP, INC.(CCBG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
31.95
One Month Price Target:
$32.07
Six Month Price Target :
$32.65
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$33.35
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$31.81
Price Upper limit ($) :
$32.13
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$30.04
This week:
$27.67
This month :
$23.39
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
539.81M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
16.96M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.5%
-25.13%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$40.83
$36.75
$23.07
$27.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$35.42
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$34.55
$28.47
$29.35
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CCBG
Sharpe Ratio:
1.68%
Comparison:
CCBG, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 36.91% higher than the industry
& is -26.21% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CCBG
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.17%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 28.37% above industry average
Classification:
CCBG, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.7
Statistical test of Returns:
CCBG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.94%
Weekly Volatility:
6.58%
Monthly Volatility:
13.17%
Yearly Volatility:
45.61%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.44%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.93% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.99%
Weekly VaR:
-13.39%
Monthly VaR:
-26.78%
How Much Can the price of
CCBG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-23%
Worst case (decline):
-92.76%
This translates to price declining to:
$24.60
This translates to price declining to:
$2.31
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CCBG is a 88.99% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 61.91% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 3.05% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CCBG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.65
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.587
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.829
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.585
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.567
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.996
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.079
Beta is -39.50% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -32.29% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.31%
Sustainable growth rate is -19.92% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.064
Alpha is 450.50% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 407% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CCBG
Equity cost of capital:
0.076
Equity cost of capital is -21.86% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.83%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.88%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.07%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.07%
WACC is -34.46% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.99
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.46
Annual revenue growth rate is 65.87% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.91
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
2.47%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -79.42% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.57
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 93.55%
Equity growth rate per share is 141.59% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$3.17
EBITDA per share
$3.10
Valuation Analysis Today of
CCBG
P/E Ratio:
16.09
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
29
P/E ratio is -44.52% lower than main peers & is 29.66% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $23.70
CCBG is 34.81% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $36.25
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $11.95
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.66
Price to sales ratio is -37.70% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.46
Price to free cash flow: 7.00
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
28.60%
Net income growth rate is -48.06% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.38%
Dividend yeild: 2.00%
Previous Dividend: $0.16
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.16
Previous Dividend: $0.64
Expected next dividend best case: $0.17
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.15
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.15
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.15%
Expected next dividend payment date: 19/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/05/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 20/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-03--$0.16
2021-12-03--$0.16
2021-06-04--$0.15
2022-03-04--$0.16
2021-09-10--$0.16
2021-03-05--$0.15
Dividend growth rate is -90.87% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
14.43%
Net debt to equity ratio:
1.77%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.25%
Net debt to assets ratio:
0.15%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.25% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
16.03
Interest coverage ratio is 1833.67% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-34.86%
Annual debt growth is -11108% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.56%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.465
Statistical significance of correlation:
CCBG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -7.19% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.03
Kurtosis
14.448
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.157
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CCBG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.22%
Effective tax rate is -6.14% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is -27.14% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.75%
Return on assets (ROA) is -67.44% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.76%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
283.2K
Each employee generates -25% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
73.3K
Each employee generates -68% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
45.0K
Each employee generates -68% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
23.6K
Each employee generates -72% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.8M
Each employee generates -72% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CCBG
BURGUNDY TECH ACQ UNT (XNAS:BTAQU)
BURGUNDY TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION CORPORATION (XNAS:BTAQ)
EQUITY BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:EQBK)
Nightdragon Acquisition Corp (XNAS:NDAC)
FIDUS INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNAS:FDUS)
ENTERPRISE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:EBTC)
THBR
PENNANTPARK INVESTMENT CORPORATION (XNYS:PNNT)
CAPSTAR FINANCIAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:CSTR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�17%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
203.37M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
104.69M
106.00M
1.30M
-
-
106.34M
3.28M
7.72M
52.63M
-
32.35M
45.90M
9.28M
32.35M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.95M
Differed Income Tax :
- 6167.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
245.00K
Change in Working Capital :
8.45M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 27.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
5.04M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
17.97M
Investments in PP&E:
- 1013.00K
Net Acquisitions:
1.84M
Purchases of Investments:
- 219587.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
77.96M
624.36M
702.32M
-
-
-
-
82.52M
-
-
1.14B
-
-
1.32B
5.63B
4.31B
-
30.87M
-
-
-
30.87M
53.69M
-
53.69M
3.96B
3.94B
169.00K
370.53M
- 33743.0K
35.19M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
372.15M
4.31B
1.77B
84.56M
6.6M
42.63M
- 55118.00K
- 231250.00K
- 3770.00K
190.00K
-
- 2712.00K
52.65M
46.35M
-
- 166926.00K
868.43M
1.04B
17.97M
- 1013.00K
16.96M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CCBG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$42.91
$44.79
$46.75
$48.80
$50.94