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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cantaloupe, Inc. (XNAS:CTLP) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CTLP
Name:
Cantaloupe, Inc. (XNAS:CTLP)
Sector:
- 2515.00K
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Donald Layden
Total Employees:
181
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -65.91% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CANTALOUPE, INC.(CTLP) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
5.57
One Month Price Target:
$5.63
Six Month Price Target :
$5.91
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$6.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$5.54
Price Upper limit ($) :
$5.61
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$5.17
This week:
$4.67
This month :
$3.77
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
393.24M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
71.11M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
22.15%
-24.36%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$7.43
$6.58
$3.71
$4.56
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$6.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$6.12
$4.83
$5.02
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CTLP
Sharpe Ratio:
0.72%
Comparison:
CTLP, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -60.29% lower than the industry
& is -68.43% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CTLP
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.17%
Monthly returns:
0.68%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -43.09% below industry average
Classification:
CTLP, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.91
Statistical test of Returns:
CTLP has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.53%
Weekly Volatility:
7.89%
Monthly Volatility:
15.77%
Yearly Volatility:
54.64%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
4.20%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 19.01% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.21%
Weekly VaR:
-16.12%
Monthly VaR:
-32.24%
How Much Can the price of
CTLP
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$4.00
This translates to price declining to:
$0.84
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CTLP is a 127.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 94.95% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 16.25% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CTLP
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.81
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.897
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.268
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.64
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.356
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.558
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.145
Beta is 57.78% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is 49.50% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.073
Alpha is -343.25% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -465% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CTLP
Equity cost of capital:
0.155
Equity cost of capital is 35.86% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
14.10%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.71%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.71%
WACC is 74.06% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$2.76
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.56
Annual revenue growth rate is -113.27% below industry average
EPS:
$0.03
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-66.67%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -2065.30% lower than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.24
EBITDA per share
$0.10
Valuation Analysis Today of
CTLP
P/E Ratio:
154.85
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
81.07
P/E ratio is 91.02% higher than main peers & is 226.22% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $1.42
CTLP is 291.14% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.02
Price to sales ratio is -44.72% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.56
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-40.27%
Net income growth rate is -100.05% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
10.98%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-40.91%
Debt to assets ratio:
7.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-26.76%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -88.68% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
7.75
Interest coverage ratio is -81.45% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
13.73%
Annual debt growth is 131% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.22%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.222
Statistical significance of correlation:
CTLP has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is -62.82% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.047
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.096
Kurtosis
6.342
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.14
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CTLP
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
176%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-0.53%
Operating profit margin is -92.34% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
176%
Effective Tax Rate:
7.40%
Effective tax rate is -71.96% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
1.96%
Return on equity (ROE) is -96.52% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.28%
Return on assets (ROA) is 1400.52% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.1x
Current Ratio:
1.95
Current ratio is -15.58% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-31.3
Cash conversion cycle is -183.44% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 31.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
58.06%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.1M
Each employee generates 156% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
38.5K
Each employee generates -14% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
16.8K
Each employee generates 97% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 13.9K
Each employee generates 109% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
609.9K
Each employee generates 109% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CTLP
THE HACKETT GROUP, INC. (XNAS:HCKT)
IDEANOMICS, INC. (XNAS:IDEX)
BRLIW
COMTECH TELECOMMUNICATIONS CORP. (XNAS:CMTL)
INTERNATIONAL MONEY EXPRESS, INC. (XNAS:IMXI)
Wejo Group Limited (XNAS:WEJO)
CAMBIUM NETWORKS CORPORATION (XNAS:CMBM)
ALLIED MOTION TECHNOLOGIES INC. (XNAS:AMOT)
SIERRA WIRELESS, INC. (XNAS:SWIR)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
196.19M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
109.05M
87.14M
16.70M
35.98M
42.00M
6.02M
4.19M
62.89M
1.10M
898.00K
2.77M
6.96M
- 1044.00K
3.04M
3.50M
259.00K
3.04M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.29M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
1.76M
Change in Working Capital :
- 2526.00K
Accounts Receivables:
2.99M
Other Working Capital:
- 43.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 105.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 874.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 1641.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 2900.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
82.51M
-
82.51M
32.22M
9.54M
2.29M
126.56M
9.96M
66.19M
20.92M
-
-
13.31M
110.39M
-
236.94M
36.15M
2.09M
1.30M
1.72M
24.78M
64.74M
17.01M
-
17.20M
-
81.94M
464.54M
- 312673.00K
-
-
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
171.94M
155.00M
236.94M
-
19.10M
- 63407.0K
-
-
- 4541.00K
- 210.00K
-
-
-
-
- 210.00K
-
- 5625.00K
82.51M
88.14M
- 874.00K
- 1641.00K
- 2515.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CTLP
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$4.50
$5.04
$5.65
$6.34
$7.11