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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Campbell Soup Company (XNYS:CPB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CPB
Name:
CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY (XNYS:CPB)
Sector:
760.00M
Industry:
Packaged Foods
CEO:
Mr. Mark Clouse
Total Employees:
14,100
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -165.29% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CAMPBELL SOUP COMPANY(CPB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND PACKAGED FOODS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
49.13
One Month Price Target:
$49.22
Six Month Price Target :
$49.69
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$50.25
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$49.
Price Upper limit ($) :
$49.28
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$47.45
This week:
$45.38
This month :
$41.63
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
14.67B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
300.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.11%
-8.07%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.91
$53.36
$41.35
$44.90
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$52.20
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.44
$46.05
$46.82
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CPB
Sharpe Ratio:
0.51%
Comparison:
CPB, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -60.83% lower than the industry
& is -77.48% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CPB
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.09%
Monthly returns:
0.35%
Yearly returns:
8.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -50.33% below industry average
Classification:
CPB, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.31
Statistical test of Returns:
CPB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.67%
Weekly Volatility:
3.74%
Monthly Volatility:
7.47%
Yearly Volatility:
25.88%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.69%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -58.54% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.41%
Weekly VaR:
-7.63%
Monthly VaR:
-15.26%
How Much Can the price of
CPB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-13%
Worst case (decline):
-52.88%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.60
This translates to price declining to:
$23.15
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CPB is a 7.73% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -7.70% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -26.97% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CPB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.34
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.478
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.676
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.149
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.209
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.275
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.63
Beta is -45.99% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.586
Beta is -41.90% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
16.49%
Sustainable growth rate is 82.06% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.013
Alpha is -203.58% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -83% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CPB
Equity cost of capital:
0.055
Equity cost of capital is -23.48% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.40%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.74%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.16%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.16%
WACC is -29.53% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$28.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.68
Annual revenue growth rate is -23.17% below industry average
EPS:
$3.13
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
62.97%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 249.14% higher than the Packaged Foods industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$3.85
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 2.37%
Equity growth rate per share is -51.16% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$17.27
EBITDA per share
$5.64
Valuation Analysis Today of
CPB
P/E Ratio:
19.64
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
21.66
P/E ratio is -9.33% lower than main peers & is -49.17% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $120.94
CPB is -59.38% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $51.06
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $30.30
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.75
Price to sales ratio is -24.62% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.68
Price to free cash flow: 12.76
Price to free cash flow ratio is -54.96% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
281.37%
Net income growth rate is 2515.43% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 46.26%
Dividend yeild: 3.01%
Previous Dividend: $0.37
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.37
Previous Dividend: $1.48
Expected next dividend best case: $0.38
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.36
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.36
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.57%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/01/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/06/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 05/02/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/07/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 03/02/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-06--$0.37
2021-10-06--$0.37
2021-04-07--$0.37
2022-01-05--$0.37
2021-07-13--$0.37
2021-01-07--$0.37
Dividend growth rate is -257.23% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
164.66%
Net debt to equity ratio:
165.70%
Debt to assets ratio:
44.23%
Net debt to assets ratio:
44.51%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -17.94% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.68
Interest coverage ratio is -95.26% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-17.92%
Annual debt growth is -106% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 22.43%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.299
Statistical significance of correlation:
CPB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.429
Stock price is -30.40% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.429
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.021
Kurtosis
6.568
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.19
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CPB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
125%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.76%
Operating profit margin is 164.36% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
125%
Effective Tax Rate:
21.83%
Effective tax rate is -46.45% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
30.11%
Return on equity (ROE) is 172.55% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.09%
Return on assets (ROA) is 81.10% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
0.93
Current ratio is -65.94% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-27
Cash conversion cycle is -154.89% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
599.1K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
120.1K
Each employee generates 7% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
67.3K
Each employee generates 29% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
53.9K
Each employee generates -1548% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
712.0K
Each employee generates -1548% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -9.68%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -299.32% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
CPB
BUNGE LIMITED (XNYS:BG)
ALBERTSONS COMPANIES, INC. (XNYS:ACI)
THE J. M. SMUCKER COMPANY (XNYS:SJM)
MOLSON COORS BEVERAGE COMPANY (XNYS:TAP)
TAP-A
CONAGRA BRANDS, INC. (XNYS:CAG)
DARLING INGREDIENTS INC. (XNYS:DAR)
LAMB WESTON HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:LW)
BJ'S WHOLESALE CLUB HOLDINGS, INC. (XNYS:BJ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�8%
Hold�42%
Sell�17%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
5/1/22
Revenue:
8.45B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.81B
2.64B
87.00M
302.00M
1.03B
730.00M
183.00M
1.30B
1.00M
145.00M
335.00M
1.69B
1.08B
949.00M
1.21B
265.00M
949.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
317.00M
Differed Income Tax :
137.00M
Stock Based Compensation :
64.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 289000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 20000.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 119000.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 196000.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.04B
Investments in PP&E:
- 275000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
109.00M
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
8/1/21
2021
FY
69.00M
-
69.00M
595.00M
933.00M
98.00M
1.70B
2.61B
3.98B
3.24B
-
-
214.00M
10.04B
-
11.73B
1.07B
102.00M
5.00M
-
642.00M
1.81B
5.19B
525.00M
6.77B
-
8.58B
12.00M
3.74B
5.0M
- 607000.00K
August 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
7.24B
3.15B
11.73B
-
5.29B
5.2B
-
8.00M
- 158000.00K
- 1501000.00K
2.00M
- 36000.00K
- 439000.00K
305.00M
- 1669000.00K
2.00M
- 790000.00K
69.00M
859.00M
1.04B
- 275000.00K
760.00M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CPB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$50.50
$51.66
$52.84
$54.05
$55.28