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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Camden Property Trust (XNYS:CPT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CPT
Name:
CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST (XNYS:CPT)
Sector:
31.76M
Industry:
REIT�Residential
CEO:
Mr. Richard Campo
Total Employees:
1,700
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2362.36% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CAMDEN PROPERTY TRUST(CPT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
126.69
One Month Price Target:
$127.25
Six Month Price Target :
$130.07
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$133.44
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$126.3
Price Upper limit ($) :
$127.2
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$121.31
This week:
$114.65
This month :
$102.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.50B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
106.53M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.1%
-17.89%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$151.67
$140.18
$101.71
$113.20
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$136.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$134.00
$116.90
$119.38
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CPT
Sharpe Ratio:
1.73%
Comparison:
CPT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 9.24% higher than the industry
& is -23.97% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CPT
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.90%
Yearly returns:
13.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -17.14% below industry average
Classification:
CPT, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.35
Statistical test of Returns:
CPT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.09%
Weekly Volatility:
4.68%
Monthly Volatility:
9.35%
Yearly Volatility:
32.39%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.06%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -49.30% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.25%
Weekly VaR:
-9.50%
Monthly VaR:
-19.00%
How Much Can the price of
CPT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-65.82%
This translates to price declining to:
$106.06
This translates to price declining to:
$43.30
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CPT is a 34.11% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 14.89% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.73% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CPT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.79
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.628
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.888
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.425
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.613
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.795
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.929
Beta is -14.62% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.785
Beta is 1.02% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.022
Alpha is -50.65% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 142% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CPT
Equity cost of capital:
0.086
Equity cost of capital is 0.64% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.67%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.11%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.11%
WACC is -3.05% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$11.15
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.15
Annual revenue growth rate is 61.58% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.32
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
9.90%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 95.64% higher than the REIT�Residential industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.71
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 7.45%
Equity growth rate per share is -280.31% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$34.46
EBITDA per share
$8.40
Valuation Analysis Today of
CPT
P/E Ratio:
16.73
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
40.55
P/E ratio is -58.74% lower than main peers & is -74.77% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $220.17
CPT is -42.46% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $66.97
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $52.29
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
11.37
Price to sales ratio is -3.05% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.15
Price to free cash flow: 74.03
Price to free cash flow ratio is -14.40% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
81.69%
Net income growth rate is -107.59% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 25.13%
Dividend yeild: 2.79%
Previous Dividend: $0.94
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.94
Previous Dividend: $3.54
Expected next dividend best case: $0.98
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.90
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.85
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.70%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.94
2021-12-15--$0.83
2021-06-29--$0.83
2022-03-30--$0.94
2021-09-29--$0.83
2021-03-30--$0.83
Dividend growth rate is -106.27% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
87.07%
Net debt to equity ratio:
60.28%
Debt to assets ratio:
43.38%
Net debt to assets ratio:
30.03%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -14.91% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.11
Interest coverage ratio is 248.09% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.12%
Annual debt growth is -103% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.664
Statistical significance of correlation:
CPT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.63
Stock price is 5.47% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.63
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.057
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.069
Kurtosis
12.826
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.722
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CPT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
256%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
20.14%
Operating profit margin is -33.77% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
256%
Effective Tax Rate:
0.58%
Effective tax rate is -56.33% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
8.38%
Return on equity (ROE) is -1.73% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
4.17%
Return on assets (ROA) is 19.01% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.8x
Current Ratio:
3.73
Current ratio is -60.15% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
6
Cash conversion cycle is -58.13% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.90%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
698.5K
Each employee generates -14% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
526.1K
Each employee generates -10% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
207.8K
Each employee generates -6% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
18.7K
Each employee generates -75% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.3M
Each employee generates -75% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CPT
VICI PROPERTIES INC. (XNYS:VICI)
UDR, INC. (XNYS:UDR)
KIMCO REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KIM)
EQUITY LIFESTYLE PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:ELS)
HEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:PEAK)
BOSTON PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:BXP)
VNO-PM
VNO-PL
MEDICAL PROPERTIES TRUST, INC. (XNYS:MPW)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�21%
Hold�46%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.19B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
426.40M
760.97M
-
81.14M
81.14M
-
440.69M
521.83M
3.02M
98.20M
440.69M
894.32M
239.14M
353.31M
365.64M
2.13M
353.31M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
113.14M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.18M
Change in Working Capital :
- 41222.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
942.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 36405.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
122.29M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.13B
-
1.13B
13.26M
-
5.78M
1.15B
-
-
-
13.18M
-
7.30B
7.31B
-
8.46B
169.97M
-
36.99M
-
137.87M
307.84M
3.67B
197.02M
3.87B
-
4.18B
1.13M
- 848074.00K
- 3370.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
948.24M
4.22B
8.39B
-
3.67B
2.5B
-
- 48910.00K
- 48910.00K
-
26.17M
-
- 88786.00K
505.76M
443.14M
-
516.51M
1.14B
618.98M
122.29M
- 90531.00K
31.76M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CPT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$135.65
$142.88
$150.50
$158.52
$166.97