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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Camden National Corporation (XNAS:CAC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CAC
Name:
CAMDEN NATIONAL CORPORATION (XNAS:CAC)
Sector:
42.36M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Gregory Dufour
Total Employees:
623
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -728.23% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CAMDEN NATIONAL CORPORATION(CAC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
44.94
One Month Price Target:
$45.13
Six Month Price Target :
$46.09
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$47.24
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$44.76
Price Upper limit ($) :
$45.16
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$42.55
This week:
$39.6
This month :
$34.26
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
650.53M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
14.63M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
14.65%
-11.41%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$56.03
$50.95
$33.85
$38.93
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$49.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.22
$40.57
$41.66
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CAC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.04%
Comparison:
CAC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -15.02% lower than the industry
& is -54.20% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CAC
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.18%
Monthly returns:
0.72%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -20.69% below industry average
Classification:
CAC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.61
Statistical test of Returns:
CAC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.61%
Weekly Volatility:
5.83%
Monthly Volatility:
11.66%
Yearly Volatility:
40.37%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.45%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -82.60% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.32%
Weekly VaR:
-11.89%
Monthly VaR:
-23.78%
How Much Can the price of
CAC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-21%
Worst case (decline):
-82.36%
This translates to price declining to:
$35.68
This translates to price declining to:
$7.93
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CAC is a 67.81% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 43.76% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -8.77% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CAC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.76
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.612
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.865
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.71
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.488
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.805
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.163
Beta is -34.48% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -20.93% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.69%
Sustainable growth rate is -4.82% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.003
Alpha is -75.53% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 18% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CAC
Equity cost of capital:
0.084
Equity cost of capital is -14.17% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
7.80%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.73%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.95%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.95%
WACC is -29.61% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$12.40
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.36
Annual revenue growth rate is -22.42% below industry average
EPS:
$4.41
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
7.53%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -37.39% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$8.11
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 28.28%
Equity growth rate per share is -26.97% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$3.03
EBITDA per share
$6.69
Valuation Analysis Today of
CAC
P/E Ratio:
10.63
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
37.2
P/E ratio is -71.42% lower than main peers & is -14.31% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $54.72
CAC is -17.88% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $64.28
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $29.27
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.62
Price to sales ratio is -15.27% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.36
Price to free cash flow: 5.54
Price to free cash flow ratio is -76.49% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
35.87%
Net income growth rate is -34.88% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.95%
Dividend yeild: 3.38%
Previous Dividend: $0.40
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.40
Previous Dividend: $1.52
Expected next dividend best case: $0.43
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.37
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.35
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 3.02%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 14/07/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 27/06/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 29/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 29/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-13--$0.40
2021-10-14--$0.36
2021-04-14--$0.36
2022-01-13--$0.40
2021-07-14--$0.36
2021-01-14--$0.33
Dividend growth rate is -87.18% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
9.19%
Net debt to equity ratio:
29.56%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.82%
Net debt to assets ratio:
2.63%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.51% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
9.31
Interest coverage ratio is 1023.20% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-82.04%
Annual debt growth is -26004% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.09%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.462
Statistical significance of correlation:
CAC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -7.74% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.026
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.04
Kurtosis
5.68
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.552
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CAC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
20.46%
Effective tax rate is -5.06% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
13.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is 14.80% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.22%
Return on assets (ROA) is -47.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 1.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.94%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
291.2K
Each employee generates -23% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
157.2K
Each employee generates -30% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
106.0K
Each employee generates -25% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
68.0K
Each employee generates -18% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.5M
Each employee generates -18% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CAC
BOWX
Fanhua Inc. (XNAS:FANH)
THE BEAUTY HEALTH COMPANY (XNAS:SKIN)
LEGACY IRON ORE LTD (XASX:LCY)
WTRE
OXFORD LANE CAPITAL CORP. (XNAS:OXLC)
AGC
Trustpilot Group PLC (XLON:TRST)
Gores Holdings VII Inc (XNAS:GSEV)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
181.39M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
64.22M
64.22M
-
-
-
151.54M
10.52M
4.33M
97.91M
-
66.07M
83.06M
16.99M
66.07M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.06M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
624.00K
Change in Working Capital :
25.25M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
24.07M
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 970.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
42.75M
Investments in PP&E:
- 393.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 77865.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
139.38M
1.42B
1.56B
-
-
-
-
37.23M
94.70M
2.03M
1.44B
-
-
1.57B
6.99B
5.42B
79.31M
237.67M
-
-
-
316.97M
44.33M
-
44.33M
4.67B
4.94B
123.01M
435.35M
- 75913.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
482.45M
5.42B
2.86B
282.00M
142.6M
69.57M
- 102534.00K
- 111220.00K
- 40.00K
-
- 542.00K
- 5911.00K
- 6279.00K
- 12772.00K
-
- 81242.00K
139.38M
220.63M
42.75M
- 393.00K
42.36M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CAC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$47.48
$90.64
$95.28
$100.16
$105.29