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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cambridge Bancorp (XNAS:CATC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CATC
Name:
CAMBRIDGE BANCORP (XNAS:CATC)
Sector:
2.15M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Denis Sheahan
Total Employees:
379
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 58.04% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CAMBRIDGE BANCORP(CATC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
79.8
One Month Price Target:
$80.01
Six Month Price Target :
$81.08
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$82.35
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$79.5
Price Upper limit ($) :
$80.16
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$75.81
This week:
$70.88
This month :
$61.96
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
559.12M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
7.01M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.83%
-14.1%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$98.31
$89.83
$61.29
$69.77
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$87.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$85.25
$72.51
$74.35
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CATC
Sharpe Ratio:
1.23%
Comparison:
CATC, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 0.26% higher than the industry
& is -45.97% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CATC
Daily returns:
0.04%
Weekly returns:
0.20%
Monthly returns:
0.78%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -14.10% below industry average
Classification:
CATC, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.63
Statistical test of Returns:
CATC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.45%
Weekly Volatility:
5.48%
Monthly Volatility:
10.97%
Yearly Volatility:
38.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -83.67% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.00%
Weekly VaR:
-11.18%
Monthly VaR:
-22.35%
How Much Can the price of
CATC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-77.43%
This translates to price declining to:
$64.38
This translates to price declining to:
$18.01
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CATC is a 57.76% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 35.15% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -14.14% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CATC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.48
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.517
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.731
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.44
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.482
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.73
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.007
Beta is -52.69% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -50.56% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.72%
Sustainable growth rate is -4.48% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.030
Alpha is 155.10% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 188% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CATC
Equity cost of capital:
0.064
Equity cost of capital is -34.23% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.93%
Before-tax cost of debt:
12.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
10.03%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
10.03%
WACC is -43.87% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$24.73
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.28
Annual revenue growth rate is -48.57% below industry average
EPS:
$7.66
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.44%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 3.45% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.78
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 32.94%
Equity growth rate per share is -14.92% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$6.91
EBITDA per share
$11.10
Valuation Analysis Today of
CATC
P/E Ratio:
10.49
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.12
P/E ratio is -25.70% lower than main peers & is -15.44% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $95.05
CATC is -16.04% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $93.74
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $62.97
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.23
Price to sales ratio is -24.55% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.28
Price to free cash flow: 10.25
Price to free cash flow ratio is -57.52% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
46.09%
Net income growth rate is -16.32% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 8.28%
Dividend yeild: 3.13%
Previous Dividend: $0.64
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.64
Previous Dividend: $2.50
Expected next dividend best case: $0.68
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.60
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.57
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.35%
Expected next dividend payment date: 17/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/03/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 18/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 19/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 19/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-04--$0.64
2021-11-03--$0.61
2021-05-05--$0.61
2022-02-09--$0.64
2021-08-04--$0.61
2021-02-10--$0.55
Dividend growth rate is -90.02% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
11.10%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.64%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.66%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.42% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
12.65
Interest coverage ratio is 1426.23% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-28.48%
Annual debt growth is -9092% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.462
Statistical significance of correlation:
CATC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -7.78% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.021
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.03
Kurtosis
4.913
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.116
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CATC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
11.09%
Operating profit margin is -69.03% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
25.87%
Effective tax rate is 20.07% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
12.34%
Return on equity (ROE) is 3.48% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.07%
Return on assets (ROA) is -53.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 25.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-1.18%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
457.2K
Each employee generates 20% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
205.2K
Each employee generates -9% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
142.1K
Each employee generates 0% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
5.7K
Each employee generates -93% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
3.7M
Each employee generates -93% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CATC
OPORTUN FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:OPRT)
FIRST FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:THFF)
RMG ACQUISITION CORP. III (XNAS:RMGC)
ZIONS BANCORPORATION, NATIONAL ASSOCIATION (XNAS:ZIONP)
ARROW FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:AROW)
CF Acquisition Corp IV (XNAS:CFIV)
PEAPACK-GLADSTONE FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:PGC)
NEWTEK BUSINESS SERVICES CORP. (XNAS:NEWT)
Khosla Ventures Acquisition Co III (XNAS:KVSC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
173.27M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
43.23M
-
77.35M
79.65M
2.30M
- 17171.00K
2.54M
134.52M
6.15M
- 1023.00K
77.76M
-
53.84M
72.63M
18.79M
53.84M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
52.00K
Differed Income Tax :
2.96M
Stock Based Compensation :
- 634.00K
Change in Working Capital :
- 13219.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 556.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
134.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
2.61M
Investments in PP&E:
- 460.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 186743.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
81.75M
188.21M
269.95M
9.72M
-
-
-
46.89M
51.91M
2.53M
1.30B
-
-
1.41B
6.42B
5.02B
-
-
-
-
-
-
48.41M
-
48.41M
4.63B
4.58B
7.00M
211.73M
- 11104.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
436.17M
5.02B
1.49B
48.41M
- 33337.0K
45.80M
- 97407.00K
- 238813.00K
-
-
-
- 4460.00K
142.26M
137.80M
-
- 98405.00K
81.75M
180.15M
2.61M
- 460.00K
2.15M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CATC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$104.47
$107.82
$111.27
$114.83
$118.51