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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Calumet Specialty Products Unt (XNAS:CLMT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CLMT
Name:
CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODUCTS UNT (XNAS:CLMT)
Sector:
- 70100.00K
Industry:
Oil & Gas E&P
CEO:
Mr. Timothy Go
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CALUMET SPECIALTY PRODUCTS UNT(CLMT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND OIL & GAS E&P INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.48
One Month Price Target:
$17.57
Six Month Price Target :
$18.01
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$18.53
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.38
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.71
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$15.59
This week:
$13.26
This month :
$9.03
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
-
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
66.97%
-25.67%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$26.23
$22.10
$8.73
$12.86
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$20.76
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$19.88
$14.19
$15.08
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CLMT
Sharpe Ratio:
6.63%
Comparison:
CLMT, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 44.20% higher than the industry
& ratio is 190.73% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CLMT
Daily returns:
0.37%
Weekly returns:
1.85%
Monthly returns:
7.39%
Yearly returns:
61.42%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 44.36% above industry average
Classification:
CLMT, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.07
Statistical test of Returns:
CLMT has yielded a higher return than the market, the results are statistically significant
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
5.44%
Weekly Volatility:
12.17%
Monthly Volatility:
24.33%
Yearly Volatility:
84.30%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.57%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.50% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-10.81%
Weekly VaR:
-24.16%
Monthly VaR:
-48.32%
How Much Can the price of
CLMT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-38%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$10.75
This translates to price declining to:
$2.62
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CLMT is a 241.07% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 192.19% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 1.94% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CLMT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.90
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.733
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.037
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.896
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.645
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.825
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.711
Beta is -47.65% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.012
Beta is -55.50% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.794
Alpha is 78.44% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 5053% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CLMT
Equity cost of capital:
0.093
Equity cost of capital is -45.17% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
9.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
11.52%
After-tax cost of debt:
9.10%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
9.10%
WACC is -34.61% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
Annual revenue growth rate is -115.53% below industry average
EPS:
-$2.59
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
80.42%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 149.50% higher than the Oil & Gas E&P industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
CLMT
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
73.93
-
-
CLMT is -116.03% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.41
Price to sales ratio is -91.72% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
366.19%
Net income growth rate is -48.48% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.00%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
65.67%
Net debt to assets ratio:
65.51%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 23.29% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.25
Interest coverage ratio is -103.20% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
12.49%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 28.65%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.258
Statistical significance of correlation:
CLMT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.394
Stock price is -34.65% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.394
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.039
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.124
Kurtosis
35.008
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
2.574
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CLMT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
24%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.10%
Operating profit margin is -107.58% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
24%
Effective Tax Rate:
-0.14%
Effective tax rate is -100.73% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
0.00%
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-9.54%
Return on assets (ROA) is -515.02% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.9x
Current Ratio:
0.62
Current ratio is -68.97% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-26.8
Cash conversion cycle is -137.87% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CLMT
SITIO ROYALTIES CORP. (XNYS:STR)
BERRY CORPORATION (BRY) (XNAS:BRY)
AEMETIS, INC. (XNAS:AMTX)
MATRIX SERVICE COMPANY (XNAS:MTRX)
BLUEKNIGHT ENERGY PARTNERS, L.P. (XNAS:BKEPP)
TRCH
TARGET HOSPITALITY CORP. (XNAS:TH)
GREEN PLAINS PARTNERS UNT (XNAS:GPP)
PVAC
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�13%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.65B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.43B
217.60M
-
147.00M
199.30M
52.30M
12.30M
211.60M
-
166.90M
-
- 42300.00K
3.80M
- 209500.00K
- 207500.00K
300.00K
- 209500.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
39.30M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
53.30M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 2900.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 67200.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
10.70M
-
10.70M
332.70M
337.60M
10.80M
691.80M
1.02B
-
-
-
-
488.60M
1.50B
-
2.20B
415.10M
7.30M
-
-
693.80M
1.12B
1.44B
101.40M
1.54B
-
2.66B
-
-
- 10000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
3.64B
-
2.66B
-
1.45B
1.4B
-
200.00K
- 67000.00K
- 579000.00K
-
-
-
581.60M
2.60M
-
- 67300.00K
54.60M
121.90M
- 2900.00K
- 67200.00K
- 70100.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CLMT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.59
$19.71
$20.89
$22.15
$23.48