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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Calamos Dyn Cv And Inc (XNAS:CCD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CCD
Name:
Calamos Dyn Cv and Inc (XNAS:CCD)
Sector:
- 7698.32K
Industry:
Asset Management
CEO:
John P. Calamos
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CALAMOS DYN CV AND INC(CCD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND ASSET MANAGEMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.8
One Month Price Target:
$22.97
Six Month Price Target :
$23.8
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.8
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.71
Price Upper limit ($) :
$22.91
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.61
This week:
$20.13
This month :
$17.46
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
562.15M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
-
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.5%
-27.59%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.34
$25.79
$17.26
$19.81
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.97
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$24.43
$20.63
$21.17
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CCD
Sharpe Ratio:
1.51%
Comparison:
CCD, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 87.96% higher than the industry
& is -33.69% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CCD
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.24%
Monthly returns:
0.95%
Yearly returns:
9.18%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 24.68% above industry average
Classification:
CCD, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.92
Statistical test of Returns:
CCD has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.57%
Weekly Volatility:
5.75%
Monthly Volatility:
11.50%
Yearly Volatility:
39.83%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.92%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -64.28% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.23%
Weekly VaR:
-11.70%
Monthly VaR:
-23.40%
How Much Can the price of
CCD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-20%
Worst case (decline):
-81.06%
This translates to price declining to:
$18.21
This translates to price declining to:
$4.32
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CCD is a 65.16% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 41.49% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -1.06% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CCD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.894
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.264
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.701
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.895
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.764
Beta is 70.82% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.694
Beta is -22.99% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.85%
Sustainable growth rate is -97.00% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.006
Alpha is -88.55% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -41% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CCD
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is -18.08% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-14.47%
After-tax cost of debt:
-11.44%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-11.44%
WACC is -10.48% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
-
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.78
Annual revenue growth rate is 1274.22% above the industry average
EPS:
-$5.06
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
55.10%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 98.39% higher than the Asset Management industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.28
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 12.18%
Equity growth rate per share is -42.36% lower than the industry
Debt per share
-
EBITDA per share
-
Valuation Analysis Today of
CCD
P/E Ratio:
-
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
17.85
-
-
CCD is -127.90% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $15.48
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $6.45
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.63
Price to sales ratio is -32.43% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.78
Price to free cash flow: 5.33
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
1628.11%
Net income growth rate is 1019.91% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 86.39%
Dividend yeild: 3.42%
Previous Dividend: $0.20
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.20
Previous Dividend: $0.78
-
-
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 15/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/12/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 17/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 13/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-10--$0.20
2022-04-12--$0.20
2022-02-11--$0.20
2022-05-12--$0.20
2022-03-11--$0.20
2021-12-30--$0.20
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
34.24%
Net debt to equity ratio:
29.00%
Debt to assets ratio:
23.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
19.77%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -55.34% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.61
Interest coverage ratio is -101.02% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
31.96%
Annual debt growth is -562% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in previous year: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.538
Statistical significance of correlation:
CCD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.576
Stock price is -6.69% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.576
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.039
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.058
Kurtosis
33.132
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-1.542
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CCD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
285%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
77.01%
Operating profit margin is 63.72% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
285%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
7.97%
Return on equity (ROE) is -68.46% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
5.44%
Return on assets (ROA) is -6.86% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-50.2
Cash conversion cycle is -105.78% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CCD
COMMUNITY TRUST BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:CTBI)
HORIZON BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HBNC)
NICOLET BANKSHARES, INC. (XNYS:NIC)
UNITED FIRE GROUP, INC. (XNAS:UFCS)
HARBORONE BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:HONE)
SLR INVESTMENT CORP. (XNAS:SLRC)
ALLEGIANCE BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:ABTX)
GREAT SOUTHERN BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:GSBC)
FIRST MID BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:FMBH)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/20
Revenue:
132.39M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
30.19M
102.20M
-
73.22K
250.38K
-
-
250.38K
-
- 39082.26K
-
23.78M
101.95M
62.86M
62.86M
-
62.86M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
1.07M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 229383.07K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 7698.32K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
10/31/21
2021
FY
41.29M
-
41.29M
3.09M
-
-
-
-
-
-
1.11B
-
-
-
1.16B
1.16B
4.86M
-
-
-
-
-
270.00M
-
270.00M
638.09M
368.09M
523.79M
264.76M
-
-
October 31, 2021 at 12:00:00 AM
30.44M
788.55M
1.16B
-
270.00M
228.7M
-
-
-
-
10.09M
-
- 54306.18K
93.18M
48.96M
-
41.26M
41.29M
21.99K
- 7698.32K
-
- 7698.32K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CCD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$24.88
$27.06
$29.43
$32.01
$34.82