_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Cal-Maine Foods, Inc. (XNAS:CALM) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CALM
Name:
CAL-MAINE FOODS, INC. (XNAS:CALM)
Sector:
- 35345.00K
Industry:
Farm Products
CEO:
Mr. Adolphus Baker
Total Employees:
2,985
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -9.56% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF CAL-MAINE FOODS, INC.(CALM) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND FARM PRODUCTS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
54.05
One Month Price Target:
$54.01
Six Month Price Target :
$53.82
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$53.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$53.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$54.26
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$51.84
This week:
$49.11
This month :
$44.17
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.33B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
44.14M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.09%
-10.45%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$64.30
$59.58
$43.80
$48.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$58.04
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$57.03
$50.05
$51.07
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CALM
Sharpe Ratio:
2.16%
Comparison:
CALM, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 18.13% higher than the industry
& is -5.21% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CALM
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.26%
Monthly returns:
1.05%
Yearly returns:
10.81%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 16.34% above industry average
Classification:
CALM, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.42
Statistical test of Returns:
CALM has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.02%
Weekly Volatility:
4.51%
Monthly Volatility:
9.02%
Yearly Volatility:
31.24%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
3.43%
Volatility in last five trading days has been 69.99% above long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.09%
Weekly VaR:
-9.14%
Monthly VaR:
-18.29%
How Much Can the price of
CALM
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-63.34%
This translates to price declining to:
$45.63
This translates to price declining to:
$19.81
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CALM is a 29.06% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 10.57% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -29.64% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CALM
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500---0.13
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.288
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.407
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-0.125
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.175
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.315
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.906
Beta is -113.82% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.117
Beta is -111.21% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.103
Alpha is 122616.48% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 655% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CALM
Equity cost of capital:
0.023
Equity cost of capital is -78.79% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.28%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.93%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.93%
WACC is -75.64% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$35.12
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.4
Annual revenue growth rate is -139.89% below industry average
EPS:
$0.37
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-30.87%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 969.47% higher than the Farm Products industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$0.03
EBITDA per share
$1.67
Valuation Analysis Today of
CALM
P/E Ratio:
19.59
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
441.65
P/E ratio is -95.56% lower than main peers & is -48.96% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $14.20
CALM is 280.60% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.54
Price to sales ratio is 17.02% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.4
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-98.37%
Net income growth rate is 298.72% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.29%
Previous Dividend: $0.13
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.13
Previous Dividend: $0.16
Expected next dividend best case: $1.57
Expected next dividend worst case: -$1.32
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.08
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 267.65%
Expected next dividend payment date: 08/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 26/07/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 05/12/2022
Previous dividend record date: 27/04/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 27/11/2007
Dividend History:
2022-04-26--$0.13
--$0.00
--$0.00
2021-04-27--$0.03
--$0.00
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -1863.06% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
0.13%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-1.46%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.11%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.20%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.66% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
933.3
Interest coverage ratio is 7117.31% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-29.81%
Annual debt growth is 83% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 3.92%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.218
Statistical significance of correlation:
CALM has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.451
Stock price is -51.75% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.451
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.017
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.02
Kurtosis
8.355
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.175
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CALM
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
43%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-0.98%
Operating profit margin is -137.74% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
43%
Effective Tax Rate:
-145.07%
Effective tax rate is -393.01% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
1.85%
Return on equity (ROE) is -74.97% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.52%
Return on assets (ROA) is -62.16% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
4.72
Current ratio is 1.02% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
22.8
Cash conversion cycle is 34.61% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
519.2K
Each employee generates -36% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
24.7K
Each employee generates -50% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
6.2K
Each employee generates -77% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 11.8K
Each employee generates 0% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
251.7K
Each employee generates 0% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CALM
HOUGHTON MIFFLIN HARCOURT COMPANY (XNAS:HMHC)
MGP INGREDIENTS, INC. (XNAS:MGPI)
UDEMY, INC. (XNAS:UDMY)
LAUREATE EDUCATION, INC. (XNAS:LAUR)
PRICESMART, INC. (XNAS:PSMT)
SOVOS BRANDS, INC. (XNAS:SOVO)
Strategic Education, Inc. (XNAS:STRA)
2U, INC. (XNAS:TWOU)
THE ANDERSONS, INC. (XNAS:ANDE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�13%
Sell�4%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
2/28/22
Revenue:
1.55B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.37B
179.90M
-
136.90M
195.44M
58.54M
-
195.44M
1.09M
79.00K
66.08M
73.73M
- 15188.00K
18.42M
7.48M
- 10850.00K
18.42M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
17.39M
Differed Income Tax :
- 15838.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 66908.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
362.93M
Other Non-Cash Items:
59.27M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 24112.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 11233.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 44823.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 1388.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
8/31/21
2022
Q1
16.68M
73.67M
90.35M
134.40M
226.47M
9.25M
460.47M
669.98M
44.01M
19.80M
10.72M
-
6.75M
751.26M
-
1.21B
96.71M
834.00K
-
-
-
97.54M
1.30M
10.33M
118.62M
-
216.16M
751.00K
957.95M
- 728.0K
37.59M
August 31, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
1.57B
995.57M
1.21B
84.39M
2.13M
- 14551.0K
39.39M
1.57M
- 16485.00K
- 53.00K
-
- 18.00K
-
-
- 71.00K
-
- 40668.00K
16.68M
57.35M
- 24112.00K
- 11233.00K
- 35345.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CALM
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$53.86
$53.40
$52.95
$52.51
$52.07