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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc. (XNAS:CHRW) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
CHRW
Name:
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:CHRW)
Sector:
- 40157.00K
Industry:
Integrated Freight & Logistics
CEO:
Mr. Robert Biesterfeld
Total Employees:
17,554
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -171.16% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC.(CHRW) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INTEGRATED FREIGHT & LOGISTICS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
115.36
One Month Price Target:
$115.83
Six Month Price Target :
$118.21
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$121.06
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$115.08
Price Upper limit ($) :
$115.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$110.99
This week:
$105.59
This month :
$95.83
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
13.99B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
123.88M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.33%
-11.5%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$135.61
$126.20
$95.11
$104.52
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$123.14
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$121.13
$107.56
$109.59
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
CHRW
Sharpe Ratio:
3.71%
Comparison:
CHRW, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 18.47% higher than the industry
& ratio is 62.94% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
CHRW
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.39%
Monthly returns:
1.57%
Yearly returns:
21.22%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -10.92% below industry average
Classification:
CHRW, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.51
Statistical test of Returns:
CHRW has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.88%
Weekly Volatility:
4.21%
Monthly Volatility:
8.42%
Yearly Volatility:
29.16%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.54%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -71.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.79%
Weekly VaR:
-8.47%
Monthly VaR:
-16.93%
How Much Can the price of
CHRW
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-58.66%
This translates to price declining to:
$99.13
This translates to price declining to:
$47.69
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
CHRW is a 19.51% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 2.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -25.06% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
CHRW
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.73
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.483
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.683
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.426
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.441
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.395
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.523
Beta is -51.77% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.068
Beta is -31.18% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
25.89%
Sustainable growth rate is -6.18% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.107
Alpha is -0.35% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 682% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
CHRW
Equity cost of capital:
0.082
Equity cost of capital is -21.79% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
4.75%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.53%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.00%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.00%
WACC is -21.73% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$202.72
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
6.82
Annual revenue growth rate is -52.08% below industry average
EPS:
$7.09
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
14.44%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -62.05% lower than the Integrated Freight & Logistics industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.41
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 9.72%
Equity growth rate per share is 54.19% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$14.84
EBITDA per share
$10.45
Valuation Analysis Today of
CHRW
P/E Ratio:
13.86
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.76
P/E ratio is -50.05% lower than main peers & is -13.57% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $113.74
CHRW is 1.43% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $48.01
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $29.65
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.57
Price to sales ratio is -64.16% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
6.82
Price to free cash flow: 280.30
Price to free cash flow ratio is 432.91% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
33.31%
Net income growth rate is -84.62% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.74%
Dividend yeild: 1.91%
Previous Dividend: $0.55
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.55
Previous Dividend: $2.20
Expected next dividend best case: $0.57
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.53
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.52
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.71%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 09/01/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 06/03/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-02--$0.55
2021-12-14--$0.55
2021-09-02--$0.51
2022-03-03--$0.55
2021-12-10--$0.55
2021-06-03--$0.51
Dividend growth rate is -127.36% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
87.71%
Net debt to equity ratio:
106.69%
Debt to assets ratio:
24.44%
Net debt to assets ratio:
29.73%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -87.30% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
20.64
Interest coverage ratio is -43.51% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
55.90%
Annual debt growth is 17% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 35.58%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.486
Statistical significance of correlation:
CHRW has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.551
Stock price is -11.89% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.551
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.003
Kurtosis
6.355
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.325
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
CHRW
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
28%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
4.80%
Operating profit margin is -2.14% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
28%
Effective Tax Rate:
17.54%
Effective tax rate is -25.01% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
44.92%
Return on equity (ROE) is 39.26% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
12.51%
Return on assets (ROA) is -284.10% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.49
Current ratio is -28.46% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
37.2
Cash conversion cycle is -93.51% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.61%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.4M
Each employee generates 43% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
73.8K
Each employee generates 10% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
53.6K
Each employee generates 99% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 2.3K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
127.7K
Each employee generates -121% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
CHRW
NORDSON CORPORATION (XNAS:NDSN)
PLUG POWER INC. (XNAS:PLUG)
AMERCO (XNAS:UHAL)
ICAHN ENTERPRISES UNT (XNAS:IEP)
Kanzhun Ltd (XNAS:BZ)
UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:UAL)
BNGOW
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC. (XNAS:AAL)
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HTZ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�8%
Hold�63%
Sell�13%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
25.11B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
23.35B
1.76B
-
-
555.52M
-
-
555.52M
-
62.73M
90.47M
1.29B
1.20B
941.29M
1.14B
200.23M
941.29M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
22.49M
Differed Income Tax :
- 2916.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
24.61M
Change in Working Capital :
- 325201.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 424025.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 81219.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 3251.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 13928.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 10046.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
242.81M
-
242.81M
4.90B
-
140.31M
5.28B
437.35M
1.49B
84.01M
-
129.23M
102.90M
2.24B
-
7.52B
2.00B
640.51M
143.66M
-
899.52M
3.54B
1.84B
29.33M
1.88B
-
5.43B
12.80M
5.13B
- 54264.0K
- 2997702.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
23.91B
2.10B
7.52B
-
2.48B
2.2B
-
- 13933.00K
- 23979.00K
- 1015000.00K
-
- 177741.00K
- 72855.00K
1.29B
21.77M
1.53M
- 14604.00K
242.81M
257.41M
- 13928.00K
- 26229.00K
- 40157.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
CHRW
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$121.67
$167.99
$176.29
$184.99
$194.13