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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bwx Technologies, Inc. (XNYS:BWXT) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BWXT
Name:
BWX TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:BWXT)
Sector:
- 57795.00K
Industry:
Aerospace & Defense
CEO:
Mr. Rex Geveden
Total Employees:
6,600
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -177.13% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BWX TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(BWXT) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND AEROSPACE & DEFENSE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
51.42
One Month Price Target:
$51.65
Six Month Price Target :
$52.78
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$54.15
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$51.24
Price Upper limit ($) :
$51.59
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$49.29
This week:
$46.65
This month :
$41.89
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
4.70B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
91.22M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
8.22%
-12.42%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$61.32
$56.83
$41.52
$46.01
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$55.36
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$54.40
$47.46
$48.44
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BWXT
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.74%
Comparison:
BWXT, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -167.92% lower than the industry
& is -132.33% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BWXT
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.03%
Monthly returns:
-0.12%
Yearly returns:
10.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -113.79% below industry average
Classification:
BWXT, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.53
Statistical test of Returns:
BWXT has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.02%
Weekly Volatility:
4.51%
Monthly Volatility:
9.01%
Yearly Volatility:
31.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.21%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -89.44% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.14%
Weekly VaR:
-9.27%
Monthly VaR:
-18.53%
How Much Can the price of
BWXT
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-16%
Worst case (decline):
-64.20%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.95
This translates to price declining to:
$18.41
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BWXT is a 30.81% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 12.07% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -36.19% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BWXT
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.79
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.727
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.029
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.313
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.459
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.343
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.295
Beta is -39.01% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.007
Beta is -21.57% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
29.50%
Sustainable growth rate is 48.03% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.100
Alpha is -2633.77% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -637% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BWXT
Equity cost of capital:
0.086
Equity cost of capital is -14.81% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.39%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.75%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.17%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.17%
WACC is -33.00% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$23.31
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
7.11
Annual revenue growth rate is -72.72% below industry average
EPS:
$3.16
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.17%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 8.02% higher than the Aerospace & Defense industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.22
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 31.17%
Equity growth rate per share is -18038.33% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$14.25
EBITDA per share
$5.34
Valuation Analysis Today of
BWXT
P/E Ratio:
15.32
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
22.99
P/E ratio is -33.38% lower than main peers & is -67.40% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $148.50
BWXT is -65.37% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $36.84
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.10
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.21
Price to sales ratio is -76.80% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
7.11
Price to free cash flow: 233.06
Price to free cash flow ratio is -81.29% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
41.61%
Net income growth rate is 1274.40% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 7.00%
Dividend yeild: 1.67%
Previous Dividend: $0.22
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.22
Previous Dividend: $0.86
Expected next dividend best case: $0.23
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.20
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.71%
Expected next dividend payment date: 09/06/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 18/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 06/08/2022
Previous dividend record date: 20/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-19--$0.22
2021-11-18--$0.21
2021-05-18--$0.21
2022-03-09--$0.22
2021-08-18--$0.21
2021-03-09--$0.21
Dividend growth rate is -120.50% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
196.97%
Net debt to equity ratio:
193.39%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.59%
Net debt to assets ratio:
49.67%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -5.72% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.63
Interest coverage ratio is 63.85% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
25.00%
Annual debt growth is -73% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.64%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.489
Statistical significance of correlation:
BWXT has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.541
Stock price is -9.74% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.541
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.005
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.006
Kurtosis
6.103
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.448
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BWXT
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
102%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
15.75%
Operating profit margin is -103.17% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
102%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.48%
Effective tax rate is -5.26% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
44.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is 464.68% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
11.49%
Return on assets (ROA) is 169.00% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
1.94
Current ratio is -38.75% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-31.9
Cash conversion cycle is -105.54% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 29.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.34%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
322.2K
Each employee generates -6% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
73.9K
Each employee generates 97% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
44.7K
Each employee generates 596% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 8.8K
Each employee generates 277% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
269.2K
Each employee generates 277% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- -22.06%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 12596.83% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BWXT
HEXCEL CORPORATION (XNYS:HXL)
NAMVIET JOINT - STOCK COMPANY (XSTC:NAV)
AL-PA
HERC HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:HRI)
COLFAX UNT (XNYS:CFXA)
MSC INDUSTRIAL DIRECT CO., INC. (XNYS:MSM)
WNS (HOLDINGS) LIMITED (XNYS:WNS)
JOHN BEAN TECHNOLOGIES CORPORATION (XNYS:JBT)
GATES INDUSTRIAL CORPORATION PLC (XNYS:GTES)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�13%
Buy�17%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
2.13B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.59B
540.72M
10.90M
-
232.27M
-
-
243.17M
401.00K
35.77M
70.80M
487.43M
335.01M
295.13M
381.27M
85.72M
295.13M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
17.62M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
3.96M
Change in Working Capital :
- 85288.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 14383.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 32132.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 748.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 5384.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 52411.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 13600.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 1121.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
23.64M
3.79M
27.42M
712.60M
-
52.38M
792.41M
1.07B
286.86M
184.69M
110.85M
21.36M
101.58M
1.78B
-
2.57B
141.13M
-
-
105.69M
161.83M
408.64M
1.30B
200.73M
1.50B
-
1.91B
1.28M
1.81B
18.2M
- 1174048.00K
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
1.83B
659.89M
2.57B
114.64M
1.30B
1.3B
1.13M
79.00K
- 65927.00K
- 35300.00K
-
- 26011.00K
- 20666.00K
142.55M
60.57M
277.00K
- 10460.00K
29.32M
39.78M
- 5384.00K
- 52411.00K
- 57795.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BWXT
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$66.58
$70.12
$73.84
$77.75
$81.88