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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Business First Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:BFST) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BFST
Name:
BUSINESS FIRST BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:BFST)
Sector:
15.56M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. David Melville
Total Employees:
648
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Technological advancement compared to industry is 1042.60% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BUSINESS FIRST BANCSHARES, INC.(BFST) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
22.99
One Month Price Target:
$23.1
Six Month Price Target :
$23.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$24.28
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$22.87
Price Upper limit ($) :
$23.13
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$21.41
This week:
$19.45
This month :
$15.92
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
505.33M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
22.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
32.89%
-27.27%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.33
$26.97
$15.65
$19.01
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$25.88
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$25.16
$20.09
$20.82
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BFST
Sharpe Ratio:
1.08%
Comparison:
BFST, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -11.83% lower than the industry
& is -52.48% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BFST
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.23%
Monthly returns:
0.91%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -0.19% below industry average
Classification:
BFST, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.47
Statistical test of Returns:
BFST has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.37%
Weekly Volatility:
7.54%
Monthly Volatility:
15.08%
Yearly Volatility:
52.25%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.10%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -67.43% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.88%
Weekly VaR:
-15.39%
Monthly VaR:
-30.77%
How Much Can the price of
BFST
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$16.85
This translates to price declining to:
$3.45
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BFST is a 117.20% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 86.08% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 18.07% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BFST
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.84
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.608
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.859
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.621
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.623
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.867
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.686
Beta is 21.78% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -13.30% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
9.91%
Sustainable growth rate is 8.54% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.020
Alpha is 73.90% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 128% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BFST
Equity cost of capital:
0.089
Equity cost of capital is -9.00% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
6.60%
Before-tax cost of debt:
8.28%
After-tax cost of debt:
6.54%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
6.54%
WACC is -23.51% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.30
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.14
Annual revenue growth rate is 113.51% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.34
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.22%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 1.69% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.54
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is -358.25% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$8.69
EBITDA per share
$3.59
Valuation Analysis Today of
BFST
P/E Ratio:
10.88
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.09
P/E ratio is -22.78% lower than main peers & is -12.29% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $29.04
BFST is -20.82% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $26.97
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.12
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
2.77
Price to sales ratio is -35.26% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.14
Price to free cash flow: 9.04
Price to free cash flow ratio is -57.19% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
126.53%
Net income growth rate is 129.76% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.02%
Dividend yeild: 2.09%
Previous Dividend: $0.12
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.12
Previous Dividend: $0.48
Expected next dividend best case: $0.13
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.11
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.11
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 2.00%
Expected next dividend payment date: 29/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 15/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 25/07/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 31/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 26/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-12--$0.12
2021-11-12--$0.12
2021-05-13--$0.12
2022-02-14--$0.12
2021-08-12--$0.12
2021-02-11--$0.10
Dividend growth rate is -91.51% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
42.94%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-18.80%
Debt to assets ratio:
3.66%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.60%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -97.80% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.99
Interest coverage ratio is 501.88% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.48%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.46
Statistical significance of correlation:
BFST has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -8.07% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.028
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.055
Kurtosis
21.106
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.473
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BFST
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.07%
Operating profit margin is -77.46% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
19.81%
Effective tax rate is -8.06% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.62%
Return on equity (ROE) is -10.94% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.91%
Return on assets (ROA) is -60.72% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 5.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.56%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
289.3K
Each employee generates -24% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
125.0K
Each employee generates -45% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
74.9K
Each employee generates -47% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
24.0K
Each employee generates -71% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
1.8M
Each employee generates -71% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BFST
SVAC
WATERSTONE FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:WSBF)
MARLIN TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION (XNAS:FINM)
SENIOR CONNECT ACQUISITION CORP. I (XNAS:SNRH)
Amalgamated Bank (XNAS:AMAL)
ALERUS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:ALRS)
GHVI
HBT FINANCIAL, INC (XNAS:HBT)
MAAC
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
187.48M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
44.27M
-
81.39M
84.16M
2.77M
-
-
170.30M
16.24M
4.24M
81.01M
-
48.54M
60.53M
11.99M
48.54M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
1.11M
Differed Income Tax :
- 345.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
757.00K
Change in Working Capital :
6.87M
Accounts Receivables:
2.05M
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.34M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
19.46M
Investments in PP&E:
- 3899.00K
Net Acquisitions:
163.46M
Purchases of Investments:
- 46700.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
282.07M
961.36M
1.24B
20.15M
-
-
-
63.00M
89.91M
15.62M
984.39M
-
-
1.15B
6.52B
5.36B
895.00K
20.00K
-
-
-
915.00K
196.17M
-
196.17M
5.10B
4.91B
22.57M
128.17M
- 39754.0K
345.86M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
456.84M
5.36B
1.95B
196.19M
- 85888.0K
55.73M
- 76398.00K
92.20M
- 2940.00K
-
- 48.00K
- 2437.00K
107.47M
102.04M
-
213.70M
282.07M
68.38M
19.46M
- 3899.00K
15.56M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A+
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BFST
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$24.40
$33.35
$35.22
$37.20
$39.28