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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Burlington Stores, Inc. (XNYS:BURL) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BURL
Name:
BURLINGTON STORES, INC. (XNYS:BURL)
Sector:
151.74M
Industry:
Apparel Retail
CEO:
Mr. Michael O'Sullivan
Total Employees:
14,803
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -26.84% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BURLINGTON STORES, INC.(BURL) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND APPAREL RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
143.46
One Month Price Target:
$144.12
Six Month Price Target :
$147.43
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$151.39
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$142.65
Price Upper limit ($) :
$144.24
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$133.87
This week:
$122.03
This month :
$100.59
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.16B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
65.55M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
17.73%
-29.83%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$187.98
$167.77
$98.94
$119.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$161.20
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$156.88
$125.67
$130.04
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BURL
Sharpe Ratio:
-0.57%
Comparison:
BURL, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -181.72% lower than the industry
& is -124.85% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BURL
Daily returns:
-0.01%
Weekly returns:
-0.05%
Monthly returns:
-0.19%
Yearly returns:
8.86%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -125.88% below industry average
Classification:
BURL, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.34
Statistical test of Returns:
BURL has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.25%
Weekly Volatility:
7.26%
Monthly Volatility:
14.53%
Yearly Volatility:
50.33%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.75%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -46.11% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.68%
Weekly VaR:
-14.94%
Monthly VaR:
-29.88%
How Much Can the price of
BURL
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-27%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$105.38
This translates to price declining to:
$21.52
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BURL is a 110.91% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 80.68% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -16.28% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BURL
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.82
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.862
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.219
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.117
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.917
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.83
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.302
Beta is -36.82% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.366
Beta is -39.79% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
73.95%
Sustainable growth rate is 81.12% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.111
Alpha is 203.80% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -705% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BURL
Equity cost of capital:
0.088
Equity cost of capital is -29.77% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.25%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.29%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.02%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.02%
WACC is -49.61% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$138.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
17.42
Annual revenue growth rate is -101.37% below industry average
EPS:
$3.73
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.83%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -103.98% lower than the Apparel Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.74
-
-
Debt per share
$68.80
EBITDA per share
$10.35
Valuation Analysis Today of
BURL
P/E Ratio:
59.35
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.05
P/E ratio is 228.88% higher than main peers & is 331.72% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $51.27
BURL is 179.79% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.04
Price to sales ratio is 19.74% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
17.42
Price to free cash flow: 194.65
Price to free cash flow ratio is 19.25% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-159.56%
Net income growth rate is 157.52% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
835.33%
Net debt to equity ratio:
610.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
63.96%
Net debt to assets ratio:
46.75%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -0.64% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
10.85
Interest coverage ratio is -95.21% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
254.66%
Annual debt growth is -4% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.564
Statistical significance of correlation:
BURL has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.453
Stock price is 24.69% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.453
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.002
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.005
Kurtosis
13.523
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.901
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BURL
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
165%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
6.13%
Operating profit margin is -17.36% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
165%
Effective Tax Rate:
27.71%
Effective tax rate is 5.10% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
47.04%
Return on equity (ROE) is 13.64% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.60%
Return on assets (ROA) is -65.56% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.8x
Current Ratio:
1.58
Current ratio is -9.11% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-53.5
Cash conversion cycle is -211.94% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
5.07%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
611.9K
Each employee generates 56% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
45.8K
Each employee generates -7% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
17.2K
Each employee generates -33% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
10.3K
Each employee generates 54% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
291.4K
Each employee generates 54% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BURL
ROLLINS, INC. (XNYS:ROL)
Restaurant Brands International Inc. (XNYS:QSR)
BATH & BODY WORKS, INC. (XNYS:BBWI)
Amcor plc (XNYS:AMCR)
DARDEN RESTAURANTS, INC. (XNYS:DRI)
WAYFAIR INC. (XNYS:W)
INTERNATIONAL PAPER COMPANY (XNYS:IP)
NVR, Inc. (XNYS:NVR)
ADVANCE AUTO PARTS, INC. (XNYS:AAP)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�25%
Buy�46%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/30/22
Revenue:
9.06B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
5.33B
3.73B
-
-
2.88B
-
222.19M
3.11B
-
62.51M
264.64M
678.49M
555.39M
253.98M
351.34M
97.36M
253.98M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
55.61M
Differed Income Tax :
9.01M
Stock Based Compensation :
12.88M
Change in Working Capital :
- 36176.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 20175.00K
Other Working Capital:
346.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
11.06M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
223.41M
Investments in PP&E:
- 71671.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
5/1/21
2022
Q1
1.53B
-
1.53B
83.35M
767.58M
356.57M
2.74B
3.96B
47.06M
238.00M
-
4.33M
68.21M
4.31B
-
7.05B
906.96M
317.22M
-
-
504.52M
1.73B
4.51B
100.95M
4.78B
-
6.51B
7.00K
176.48M
- 20031.0K
383.43M
May 1, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
8.56B
539.89M
7.05B
-
4.83B
3.3B
-
- 149.00K
- 71820.00K
-
-
- 13083.00K
-
11.82M
- 1265.00K
-
150.32M
1.54B
1.39B
223.41M
- 71671.00K
151.74M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
B
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BURL
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$166.19
$175.37
$185.07
$195.30
$206.10