_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Builders Firstsource, Inc. (XNYS:BLDR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BLDR
Name:
BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE, INC. (XNYS:BLDR)
Sector:
129.35M
Industry:
Building Products & Equipment
CEO:
Mr. Michael Crow
Total Employees:
28,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -236.39% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BUILDERS FIRSTSOURCE, INC.(BLDR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BUILDING PRODUCTS & EQUIPMENT INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
58.57
One Month Price Target:
$59.29
Six Month Price Target :
$62.89
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$67.2
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$58.3
Price Upper limit ($) :
$59.06
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$54.11
This week:
$48.59
This month :
$38.62
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
9.00B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
156.08M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
23.38%
-23.27%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$79.25
$69.59
$37.89
$47.55
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$66.45
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$64.39
$50.66
$52.75
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BLDR
Sharpe Ratio:
4.79%
Comparison:
BLDR, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 92.36% higher than the industry
& ratio is 110.33% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BLDR
Daily returns:
0.19%
Weekly returns:
0.96%
Monthly returns:
3.82%
Yearly returns:
21.19%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 116.50% above industry average
Classification:
BLDR, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.7
Statistical test of Returns:
BLDR has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.80%
Weekly Volatility:
8.50%
Monthly Volatility:
17.00%
Yearly Volatility:
58.90%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.00%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -73.75% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-7.62%
Weekly VaR:
-17.03%
Monthly VaR:
-34.07%
How Much Can the price of
BLDR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-28%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$42.21
This translates to price declining to:
$8.79
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BLDR is a 140.44% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 105.99% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 23.12% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BLDR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--2.19
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.07
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.513
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.404
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.287
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.163
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.425
Beta is 53.92% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.393
Beta is 57.46% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
33.20%
Sustainable growth rate is 0.48% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.277
Alpha is 225.98% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1763% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BLDR
Equity cost of capital:
0.182
Equity cost of capital is 43.19% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
11.64%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.77%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.98%
Overall debt rating:
Upper medium A grade (third highest grade),CO8<=0.0429,"Medium BBB grade (Fourth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.98%
WACC is 30.85% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$137.12
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.78
Annual revenue growth rate is 31.74% above the industry average
EPS:
$11.24
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
21.10%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 157.94% higher than the Building Products & Equipment industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$9.94
-
-
Debt per share
$24.08
EBITDA per share
$22.61
Valuation Analysis Today of
BLDR
P/E Ratio:
4.01
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.77
P/E ratio is -84.45% lower than main peers & is -85.00% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $300.37
BLDR is -80.50% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.43
Price to sales ratio is -84.97% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.78
Price to free cash flow: 5.89
Price to free cash flow ratio is -75.90% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
377.38%
Net income growth rate is 344.33% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
73.17%
Net debt to equity ratio:
69.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
31.18%
Net debt to assets ratio:
29.66%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -34.29% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
24.27
Interest coverage ratio is -94.22% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
135.51%
Annual debt growth is 2157% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 31.63%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.679
Statistical significance of correlation:
BLDR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.604
Stock price is 12.43% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.604
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.048
Kurtosis
7.295
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.092
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BLDR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
14.03%
Operating profit margin is -140.11% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
124%
Effective Tax Rate:
23.28%
Effective tax rate is 6.31% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
42.69%
Return on equity (ROE) is 92.05% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
18.19%
Return on assets (ROA) is 71.30% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.5x
Current Ratio:
2.01
Current ratio is -32.23% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
18
Cash conversion cycle is -45.17% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.40%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
764.3K
Each employee generates 29% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
126.0K
Each employee generates -1% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
78.3K
Each employee generates -1% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
4.6K
Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
238.3K
Each employee generates -50% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BLDR
ICAHN ENTERPRISES UNT (XNAS:IEP)
Kanzhun Ltd (XNAS:BZ)
UNITED AIRLINES HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:UAL)
PLUG POWER INC. (XNAS:PLUG)
C.H. ROBINSON WORLDWIDE, INC. (XNAS:CHRW)
NORDSON CORPORATION (XNAS:NDSN)
AMERCO (XNAS:UHAL)
AMERICAN AIRLINES GROUP INC. (XNAS:AAL)
HERTZ GLOBAL HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:HTZ)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�17%
Hold�8%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
21.40B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
14.79B
6.61B
-
-
3.61B
-
-
3.61B
-
145.35M
524.97M
3.53B
3.00B
2.19B
2.86B
665.45M
2.19B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
111.95M
Differed Income Tax :
- 7398.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
8.84M
Change in Working Capital :
- 575244.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 549712.00K
Other Working Capital:
33.79M
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.04M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
179.82M
Investments in PP&E:
- 50475.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
281.80M
-
281.80M
2.75B
2.19B
155.82M
5.38B
1.83B
3.27B
1.54B
-
-
30.49M
6.67B
-
12.05B
1.56B
97.88M
272.48M
249.48M
772.37M
2.68B
3.76B
119.20M
4.23B
-
6.92B
1.77M
893.74M
-
4.24B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
18.40B
5.14B
12.05B
-
3.86B
3.6B
-
2.14M
- 48335.00K
- 1738827.00K
-
- 354965.00K
-
2.20B
107.71M
-
239.20M
281.80M
42.60M
179.82M
- 50475.00K
129.35M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BLDR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$67.54
$164.47
$188.70
$216.51
$248.42