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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Brunswick Corporation (XNYS:BC) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BC
Name:
BRUNSWICK CORPORATION (XNYS:BC)
Sector:
- 242800.00K
Industry:
Leisure
CEO:
Mr. David Foulkes
Total Employees:
18,582
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -335.63% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BRUNSWICK CORPORATION(BC) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND LEISURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
73.62
One Month Price Target:
$74.28
Six Month Price Target :
$77.61
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$81.59
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$73.28
Price Upper limit ($) :
$74.08
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$68.82
This week:
$62.89
This month :
$52.15
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.34B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
74.37M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
15.55%
-20.93%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$95.89
$85.63
$51.35
$61.61
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$82.29
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$80.10
$64.92
$67.14
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BC
Sharpe Ratio:
2.32%
Comparison:
BC, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 30.89% higher than the industry
& ratio is 1.95% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BC
Daily returns:
0.08%
Weekly returns:
0.42%
Monthly returns:
1.67%
Yearly returns:
16.56%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 21.16% above industry average
Classification:
BC, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.23
Statistical test of Returns:
BC has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.22%
Weekly Volatility:
7.19%
Monthly Volatility:
14.38%
Yearly Volatility:
49.82%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.74%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -76.84% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.52%
Weekly VaR:
-14.58%
Monthly VaR:
-29.16%
How Much Can the price of
BC
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-25%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$55.34
This translates to price declining to:
$11.04
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BC is a 105.83% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 76.33% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -3.80% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BC
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.61
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.414
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.648
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.073
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.013
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.564
Beta is 3.05% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.42
Beta is 13.49% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
27.16%
Sustainable growth rate is -36.04% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.059
Alpha is 59.53% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 374% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BC
Equity cost of capital:
0.142
Equity cost of capital is 10.19% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.71%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.70%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.13%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.13%
WACC is 9.27% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$82.14
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.91
Annual revenue growth rate is -70.47% below industry average
EPS:
$7.67
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
109.96%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 257.41% higher than the Leisure industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.25
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 61.34%
Equity growth rate per share is 386.08% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$34.56
EBITDA per share
$13.42
Valuation Analysis Today of
BC
P/E Ratio:
9.18
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
37.75
P/E ratio is -75.68% lower than main peers & is -78.60% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $329.06
BC is -77.63% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $48.33
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $15.18
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.9
Price to sales ratio is -70.18% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.91
Price to free cash flow: 58.69
Price to free cash flow ratio is -23.02% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
147.35%
Net income growth rate is -11.82% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 4.68%
Dividend yeild: 1.90%
Previous Dividend: $0.37
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.37
Previous Dividend: $1.40
Expected next dividend best case: $0.41
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.32
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.29
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 4.55%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 16/08/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/02/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 15/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 18/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/04/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-17--$0.37
2021-11-22--$0.34
2021-05-17--$0.34
2022-02-25--$0.37
2021-08-23--$0.34
2021-02-22--$0.27
Dividend growth rate is -352.85% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
183.41%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-
Debt to assets ratio:
42.19%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.06%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -34.48% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.36
Interest coverage ratio is -80.84% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.62%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.667
Statistical significance of correlation:
BC has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.567
Stock price is 17.63% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.567
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.01
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.018
Kurtosis
5.869
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.195
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BC
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
113%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
13.43%
Operating profit margin is 208.09% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
113%
Effective Tax Rate:
18.92%
Effective tax rate is -6.30% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
33.07%
Return on equity (ROE) is 34.23% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
9.82%
Return on assets (ROA) is 54.81% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.7x
Current Ratio:
4.09
Current ratio is 85.49% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-4.2
Cash conversion cycle is -106.51% below industry average
-
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.74%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
328.7K
Each employee generates -55% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
53.7K
Each employee generates -63% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
32.2K
Each employee generates -56% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 13.1K
Each employee generates -55% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
118.7K
Each employee generates -55% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 22.72%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is 80.01% higher than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BC
BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC. (XNYS:BFAM)
PLANET FITNESS, INC. (XNYS:PLNT)
TOLL BROTHERS, INC. (XNYS:TOL)
GILDAN ACTIVEWEAR INC. (XNYS:GIL)
ARENA MINERALS INC. (XTSX:AN)
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION (XNYS:VAC)
APTARGROUP, INC. (XNYS:ATR)
WYNDHAM HOTELS & RESORTS, INC. (XNYS:WH)
-
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�38%
Hold�17%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
4/2/22
Revenue:
6.11B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
4.38B
1.73B
171.80M
-
739.70M
-
-
911.50M
2.00M
69.50M
190.10M
997.80M
820.50M
598.20M
740.00M
140.00M
598.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
53.60M
Differed Income Tax :
4.50M
Stock Based Compensation :
4.40M
Change in Working Capital :
- 378600.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 141900.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 6000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
4/2/22
2022
Q1
680.10M
6.80M
686.90M
664.70M
1.35B
12.20M
2.71B
92.40M
889.40M
1.04B
48.10M
137.90M
-
2.21B
5.59B
6.09B
660.00M
2.30M
-
-
-
662.30M
2.57B
-
2.57B
-
3.23B
76.90M
2.87B
- 21600.0K
-
April 2, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.29B
-
6.09B
54.90M
2.57B
1.9B
-
- 86200.00K
- 92200.00K
- 182100.00K
-
- 79800.00K
- 28000.00K
849.00M
559.10M
600.00K
12.20M
692.30M
680.10M
- 141900.00K
- 100900.00K
- 242800.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BC
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$82.00
$265.91
$294.71
$326.62
$362.00