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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Broadridge Financial Solutions, Inc. (XNYS:BR) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BR
Name:
BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, INC. (XNYS:BR)
Sector:
- 151300.00K
Industry:
Information Technology Services
CEO:
Mr. Timothy Gokey
Total Employees:
14,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -108.24% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BROADRIDGE FINANCIAL SOLUTIONS, INC.(BR) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
166.48
One Month Price Target:
$167.33
Six Month Price Target :
$171.59
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$176.7
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$166.07
Price Upper limit ($) :
$167.11
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$160.33
This week:
$152.73
This month :
$138.99
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
19.69B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
117.30M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
12.54%
-8.81%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$194.99
$181.78
$137.97
$151.18
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$177.49
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$174.67
$155.44
$158.29
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BR
Sharpe Ratio:
3.07%
Comparison:
BR, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 69.48% higher than the industry
& ratio is 34.75% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BR
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.33%
Monthly returns:
1.30%
Yearly returns:
14.44%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 8.14% above industry average
Classification:
BR, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
BR has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.83%
Weekly Volatility:
4.09%
Monthly Volatility:
8.18%
Yearly Volatility:
28.34%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.42%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -22.65% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.69%
Weekly VaR:
-8.26%
Monthly VaR:
-16.51%
How Much Can the price of
BR
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-57.20%
This translates to price declining to:
$143.41
This translates to price declining to:
$71.25
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BR is a 16.55% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -0.15% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -39.70% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BR
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.91
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.713
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.009
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.303
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.663
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.543
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.295
Beta is -29.45% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.209
Beta is -24.40% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
14.87%
Sustainable growth rate is -90.01% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.062
Alpha is 106.26% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 395% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BR
Equity cost of capital:
0.094
Equity cost of capital is -17.67% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
3.12%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.89%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.49%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.49%
WACC is -40.23% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$47.04
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
11.13
Annual revenue growth rate is -10.96% below industry average
EPS:
$4.66
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
3.18%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -6.17% lower than the Information Technology Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.94
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 59.34%
Equity growth rate per share is 89.29% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$37.73
EBITDA per share
$9.42
Valuation Analysis Today of
BR
P/E Ratio:
36.6
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
30.21
P/E ratio is 21.17% higher than main peers & is -22.89% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $221.20
BR is -24.74% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $48.57
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $34.15
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.54
Price to sales ratio is -3.09% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
11.13
Price to free cash flow: 56.61
Price to free cash flow ratio is 109.27% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
29.17%
Net income growth rate is -99.96% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 12.11%
Dividend yeild: 1.54%
Previous Dividend: $0.64
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.64
Previous Dividend: $2.56
Expected next dividend best case: $0.68
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.60
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.59
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.78%
Expected next dividend payment date: 10/04/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 07/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.64
2021-12-14--$0.64
2021-06-14--$0.58
2022-03-14--$0.64
2021-09-14--$0.64
2021-03-12--$0.58
Dividend growth rate is -124.73% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
252.35%
Net debt to equity ratio:
236.59%
Debt to assets ratio:
55.13%
Net debt to assets ratio:
51.69%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -13.11% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
13.1
Interest coverage ratio is -68.65% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
0.00%
-
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 2.21%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.736
Statistical significance of correlation:
BR has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.596
Stock price is 23.48% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.596
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.007
Kurtosis
6.505
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.271
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BR
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
109%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
12.68%
Operating profit margin is -282.61% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
109%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.08%
Effective tax rate is -23.95% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
31.44%
Return on equity (ROE) is -44.11% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.87%
Return on assets (ROA) is 7945.63% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.2x
Current Ratio:
1.25
Current ratio is -45.89% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
34.8
Cash conversion cycle is -7.12% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 4.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.47%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
385.9K
Each employee generates -9% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
77.3K
Each employee generates 73% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
38.6K
Each employee generates 353% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 10.6K
Each employee generates 59% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
476.7K
Each employee generates 59% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BR
TYLER TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:TYL)
FLEETCOR TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:FLT)
TELEDYNE TECHNOLOGIES INCORPORATED (XNYS:TDY)
UIPATH, INC. (XNYS:PATH)
Bill.com Holdings Inc (XNYS:BILL)
PAYCOM SOFTWARE, INC. (XNYS:PAYC)
UBIQUITI INC. (XNYS:UI)
DiDi Global Inc. (OTCM:DIDIY)
HEWLETT PACKARD ENTERPRISE COMPANY (XNYS:HPE)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.52B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.99B
1.53B
-
-
831.40M
-
-
831.40M
2.40M
84.40M
331.10M
1.11B
699.60M
551.40M
689.80M
138.50M
551.40M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
89.10M
Differed Income Tax :
- 3000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
13.60M
Change in Working Capital :
- 334000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
96.60M
Other Working Capital:
- 5800.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
31.70M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 135400.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 13300.00K
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
316.70M
-
316.70M
730.00M
-
164.40M
1.21B
422.40M
3.68B
1.35B
203.30M
-
1.17B
6.82B
-
8.03B
156.90M
40.40M
27.80M
225.50M
543.80M
966.60M
4.43B
289.40M
5.31B
-
6.27B
1.60M
2.58B
- 60900.0K
- 763400.00K
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
4.82B
1.75B
8.03B
-
4.47B
4.1B
-
- 23100.00K
- 36400.00K
- 100000.00K
-
-
- 66800.00K
383.80M
217.00M
- 3100.00K
42.20M
316.70M
274.50M
- 135400.00K
- 15900.00K
- 151300.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BR
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$190.75
$202.46
$214.89
$228.09
$242.09