_edited.png)
RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Brixmor Property Group Inc. (XNYS:BRX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BRX
Name:
BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC. (XNYS:BRX)
Sector:
112.26M
Industry:
REIT�Retail
CEO:
Mr. James Taylor
Total Employees:
501
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -169.37% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BRIXMOR PROPERTY GROUP INC.(BRX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RETAIL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
21.61
One Month Price Target:
$21.79
Six Month Price Target :
$22.71
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$23.81
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$21.5
Price Upper limit ($) :
$21.75
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$20.13
This week:
$18.3
This month :
$14.98
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
6.50B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
299.67M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
27.62%
-21.37%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$28.49
$25.33
$14.73
$17.89
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$24.31
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$23.63
$18.91
$19.59
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BRX
Sharpe Ratio:
1.44%
Comparison:
BRX, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 39.04% higher than the industry
& is -36.65% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BRX
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.29%
Monthly returns:
1.15%
Yearly returns:
8.74%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 57.82% above industry average
Classification:
BRX, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.96
Statistical test of Returns:
BRX has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.37%
Weekly Volatility:
7.53%
Monthly Volatility:
15.05%
Yearly Volatility:
52.15%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.06%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -68.52% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.86%
Weekly VaR:
-15.33%
Monthly VaR:
-30.66%
How Much Can the price of
BRX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-26%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$15.89
This translates to price declining to:
$3.24
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BRX is a 116.41% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 85.40% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 13.76% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BRX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.52
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.004
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.42
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.819
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.929
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.991
Beta is 53.03% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.101
Beta is 37.78% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
0.26%
Sustainable growth rate is -94.34% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.003
Alpha is -112.80% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 16% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BRX
Equity cost of capital:
0.135
Equity cost of capital is 26.65% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.85%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.04%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.04%
WACC is -3.01% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.91
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
2.33
Annual revenue growth rate is -49.55% below industry average
EPS:
$0.99
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-0.73%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -147.39% lower than the REIT�Retail industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.80
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -21.52%
Equity growth rate per share is 2.80% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$16.40
EBITDA per share
$2.73
Valuation Analysis Today of
BRX
P/E Ratio:
22.07
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
35
P/E ratio is -36.93% lower than main peers & is -53.75% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $47.24
BRX is -54.26% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $14.60
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $5.80
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.53
Price to sales ratio is -42.39% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
2.33
Price to free cash flow: 11.99
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-24.97%
Net income growth rate is 87.58% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 24.58%
Dividend yeild: 4.21%
Previous Dividend: $0.24
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.24
Previous Dividend: $0.91
Expected next dividend best case: $0.27
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.21
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.24
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -1.85%
Expected next dividend payment date: 18/07/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 07/04/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 05/09/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 18/04/2022
Previous dividend record date: 04/05/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 02/07/2022
Dividend History:
2022-04-04--$0.24
2021-10-04--$0.22
2021-04-01--$0.22
2022-01-04--$0.24
2021-07-02--$0.22
2021-01-05--$0.22
Dividend growth rate is -111.68% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
177.22%
Net debt to equity ratio:
179.51%
Debt to assets ratio:
59.61%
Net debt to assets ratio:
60.38%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 8.98% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.24
Interest coverage ratio is 41.39% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-0.05%
Annual debt growth is -104% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 6.91%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.594
Statistical significance of correlation:
BRX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.511
Stock price is 16.28% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.511
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.058
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.113
Kurtosis
13.059
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.616
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BRX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
298%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
37.10%
Operating profit margin is 20.79% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
298%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
10.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is -8.45% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
3.61%
Return on assets (ROA) is 21.55% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.5x
Current Ratio:
0.58
Current ratio is -98.62% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-235.6
Cash conversion cycle is -211.57% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.2 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.45%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
2.3M
Each employee generates -38% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
1.6M
Each employee generates -49% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
593.5K
Each employee generates -53% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
224.1K
Each employee generates -60% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
15.8M
Each employee generates -60% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BRX
STARWOOD PROPERTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:STWD)
AMERICAN CAMPUS COMMUNITIES, INC. (XNYS:ACC)
OMEGA HEALTHCARE INVESTORS, INC. (XNYS:OHI)
STAG INDUSTRIAL, INC. (XNYS:STAG)
HEALTHCARE REALTY TRUST INCORPORATED (XNYS:HR)
WEWORK INC. (XNYS:WE)
FIRST INDUSTRIAL REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:FR)
AMERICOLD REALTY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:COLD)
KILROY REALTY CORPORATION (XNYS:KRC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�29%
Hold�29%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.17B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
299.95M
871.21M
-
108.81M
108.81M
-
327.95M
436.76M
-
193.10M
327.95M
818.38M
434.44M
297.32M
297.32M
-
297.32M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
84.22M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
4.32M
Change in Working Capital :
- 37589.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
- 8605.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 18194.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
112.26M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 8844.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
31.57M
19.32M
50.88M
239.86M
-
33.22M
323.95M
-
-
-
-
-
7.92B
7.92B
-
8.25B
-
95.00M
-
-
461.95M
556.95M
4.92B
-
4.92B
-
5.47B
3.00M
- 497334.00K
- 1722.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
736.71M
2.77B
8.25B
-
5.01B
5.0B
9.42M
- 175513.00K
- 174937.00K
- 365000.00K
43.87M
-
- 73095.00K
199.54M
- 194682.00K
-
- 257359.00K
40.38M
297.74M
112.26M
-
112.26M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BRX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.90
$31.85
$35.10
$38.67
$42.61