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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bristol-Myers Squibb Company (XNYS:BMY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BMY
Name:
BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY (XNYS:BMY)
Sector:
3.56B
Industry:
Drug Manufacturers�General
CEO:
Dr. Giovanni Caforio
Total Employees:
32,200
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 114.34% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BRISTOL-MYERS SQUIBB COMPANY(BMY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND DRUG MANUFACTURERS�GENERAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
68.61
One Month Price Target:
$68.77
Six Month Price Target :
$69.57
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$70.53
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$68.45
Price Upper limit ($) :
$68.8
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$66.55
This week:
$63.99
This month :
$59.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
146.50B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
2.14B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
6.84%
-7.12%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$78.19
$73.80
$59.03
$63.42
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$72.37
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$71.43
$64.84
$65.79
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BMY
Sharpe Ratio:
1.07%
Comparison:
BMY, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -45.23% lower than the industry
& is -52.91% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BMY
Daily returns:
0.02%
Weekly returns:
0.12%
Monthly returns:
0.49%
Yearly returns:
11.30%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -47.55% below industry average
Classification:
BMY, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.5
Statistical test of Returns:
BMY has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.48%
Weekly Volatility:
3.30%
Monthly Volatility:
6.61%
Yearly Volatility:
22.89%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.33%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -9.96% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.01%
Weekly VaR:
-6.73%
Monthly VaR:
-13.46%
How Much Can the price of
BMY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-12%
Worst case (decline):
-46.62%
This translates to price declining to:
$60.64
This translates to price declining to:
$36.62
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BMY is -5.01% less risky an investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is -18.62% less risky than Nasdaq(IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -22.15% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BMY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.42
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.488
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.69
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.206
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.36
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.433
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.815
Beta is -48.81% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.492
Beta is -15.18% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.92%
Sustainable growth rate is -90.16% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.001
Alpha is -101.62% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -5% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BMY
Equity cost of capital:
0.060
Equity cost of capital is -7.84% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.97%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.46%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.16%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.16%
WACC is -20.44% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$21.99
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
4.63
Annual revenue growth rate is 110.80% above the industry average
EPS:
$2.82
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
15.59%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -955.63% lower than the Drug Manufacturers�General industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.89
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 21.67%
Equity growth rate per share is -6.43% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$17.54
EBITDA per share
$8.67
Valuation Analysis Today of
BMY
P/E Ratio:
22.81
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
72.66
P/E ratio is -68.61% lower than main peers & is 26.11% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $51.01
BMY is 34.51% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $76.72
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $52.48
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.12
Price to sales ratio is -16.01% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
4.63
Price to free cash flow: 9.96
Price to free cash flow ratio is 10.54% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
3.10%
Net income growth rate is -97.66% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 18.90%
Dividend yeild: 3.08%
Previous Dividend: $0.54
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.54
Previous Dividend: $2.11
Expected next dividend best case: $0.57
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.51
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.49
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 1.91%
Expected next dividend payment date: 31/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 29/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend record date: 07/01/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-30--$0.54
2022-01-06--$0.54
2021-07-01--$0.49
2022-03-31--$0.54
2021-09-30--$0.49
2021-03-31--$0.49
Dividend growth rate is -74.59% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
118.59%
Net debt to equity ratio:
103.24%
Debt to assets ratio:
36.35%
Net debt to assets ratio:
31.64%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.62% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
28.14
Interest coverage ratio is -34.35% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-13.78%
Annual debt growth is 2353% higher than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 13.35%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.551
Statistical significance of correlation:
BMY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.517
Stock price is 6.54% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.517
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.032
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.027
Kurtosis
4.393
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.148
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BMY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
318%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
22.65%
Operating profit margin is 4.32% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
318%
Effective Tax Rate:
13.60%
Effective tax rate is 29.96% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
19.86%
Return on equity (ROE) is -80.22% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
6.09%
Return on assets (ROA) is -41.42% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.32
Current ratio is -6.30% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-15.6
Cash conversion cycle is -115.70% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 7.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.71%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
1.5M
Each employee generates 29% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
575.1K
Each employee generates 46% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
194.8K
Each employee generates -12% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
110.5K
Each employee generates 60% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
2.3M
Each employee generates 60% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 1.89%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -91.82% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BMY
CVS HEALTH CORPORATION (XNYS:CVS)
MEDTRONIC PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:MDT)
GSK PLC (XNYS:GSK)
ASTRAZENECA PLC (XNAS:AZN)
ZOETIS INC. (XNYS:ZTS)
STRYKER CORPORATION (XNYS:SYK)
Novartis Inc. (XNYS:NVS)
HCA HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNYS:HCA)
CIGNA CORPORATION (XNYS:CI)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�21%
Buy�17%
Hold�46%
Sell�8%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
46.96B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
9.57B
37.39B
11.39B
-
7.86B
1.79B
- 10248000.00K
9.00B
-
658.00M
10.60B
18.52B
10.64B
6.27B
7.26B
987.00M
6.27B
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
2.58B
Differed Income Tax :
- 687000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
107.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 4094000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
786.00M
Other Working Capital:
7.30B
Other Non-Cash Items:
4.62B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.81B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 442000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 1714000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
12.37B
2.60B
14.97B
8.51B
2.10B
4.54B
30.12B
6.05B
20.50B
40.10B
-
1.42B
4.85B
72.91B
-
103.03B
2.94B
7.52B
-
-
12.36B
22.82B
37.45B
7.31B
48.57B
-
71.39B
292.00M
23.95B
- 1229000.0K
8.57B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
39.83B
31.58B
102.97B
-
44.97B
32.6B
2.10B
149.00M
95.00M
- 5769000.00K
-
- 5000000.00K
- 1185000.00K
6.30B
- 5653000.00K
9.00M
- 1737000.00K
12.58B
14.32B
3.81B
- 253000.00K
3.56B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BMY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$70.88
$72.87
$74.91
$77.01
$79.17