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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BHF
Name:
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHF)
Sector:
- 163000.00K
Industry:
Insurance�Life
CEO:
Mr. Eric Steigerwalt
Total Employees:
1,500
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BRIGHTHOUSE FINANCIAL, INC.(BHF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND INSURANCE�LIFE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
46.88
One Month Price Target:
$47.22
Six Month Price Target :
$48.94
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$50.99
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$46.61
Price Upper limit ($) :
$47.25
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$43.09
This week:
$38.41
This month :
$29.94
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
3.35B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
71.82M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
29.3%
-22.14%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$64.45
$56.35
$29.31
$37.41
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$53.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$51.99
$40.02
$41.77
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BHF
Sharpe Ratio:
2.36%
Comparison:
BHF, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 82.87% higher than the industry
& ratio is 3.74% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BHF
Daily returns:
0.10%
Weekly returns:
0.52%
Monthly returns:
2.06%
Yearly returns:
12.17%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 103.19% above industry average
Classification:
BHF, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.95
Statistical test of Returns:
BHF has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.98%
Weekly Volatility:
8.91%
Monthly Volatility:
17.82%
Yearly Volatility:
61.72%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.08%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -98.05% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.08%
Weekly VaR:
-18.07%
Monthly VaR:
-36.13%
How Much Can the price of
BHF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$32.46
This translates to price declining to:
$7.03
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BHF is a 155.01% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 118.46% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 30.12% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BHF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.30
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.769
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.088
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.159
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.971
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.535
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.154
Beta is 13.05% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.194
Beta is 9.29% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.126
Alpha is 1398.50% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 805% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BHF
Equity cost of capital:
0.121
Equity cost of capital is 6.71% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
10.74%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.86%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.05%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.05%
WACC is 6.95% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$81.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.26
Annual revenue growth rate is -66.75% below industry average
EPS:
$12.89
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-31.08%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -866.95% lower than the Insurance�Life industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.29
-
-
Debt per share
$43.96
EBITDA per share
$9.45
Valuation Analysis Today of
BHF
P/E Ratio:
1.84
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
11.5
P/E ratio is -84.03% lower than main peers & is -81.11% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $125.22
BHF is -62.56% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
0.58
Price to sales ratio is -46.50% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.26
Price to free cash flow: 20.50
Price to free cash flow ratio is 65.88% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-116.64%
Net income growth rate is -611.13% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 5.66%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
24.64%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-7.37%
Debt to assets ratio:
1.29%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-0.39%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -98.53% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.57
Interest coverage ratio is 33.18% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.12%
Annual debt growth is -47% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.577
Statistical significance of correlation:
BHF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.695
Stock price is -17.03% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.695
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.008
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.018
Kurtosis
8.324
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.251
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BHF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
-
Effective Tax Rate:
49.10%
Effective tax rate is 141.68% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
3.72%
Return on equity (ROE) is 18.27% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
0.19%
Return on assets (ROA) is -76.82% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 12.0 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
3.9M
Each employee generates 106% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
452.7K
Each employee generates 41% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
318.0K
Each employee generates 37% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 108.7K
Each employee generates -304% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
0.0K
Each employee generates -304% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BHF
CFACU
UMPQUA HOLDINGS CORPORATION (XNAS:UMPQ)
GREENROSE ACQUISITION UNT (OTCM:GNRSU)
GORES METROPOULOS II UNT (XNAS:GMIIU)
Brighthouse Financial, Inc. (XNAS:BHFAP)
ITIQUIRA ACQUISITION UNT (XNAS:ITQRU)
HANCOCK WHITNEY CORPORATION (XNAS:HWC)
INVESTORS BANCORP, INC. (XNAS:ISBC)
HOME BANCSHARES, INC. (XNYS:HOMB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�4%
Hold�46%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�4%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
5.85B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
-
-
329.00M
329.00M
-
-
-
-
122.00M
-
679.00M
-
477.00M
943.00M
463.00M
477.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
-
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
-
Change in Working Capital :
- 163000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 163000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
4.10B
82.50B
86.60B
16.29B
-
-
102.89B
-
-
-
30.92B
-
-
-
142.17B
245.05B
-
-
61.00M
-
-
-
3.16B
-
3.37B
235.55B
232.17B
1.00M
- 2000.00K
363.0M
12.45B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
5.29B
12.81B
244.99B
113.42B
3.16B
- 944000.0K
-
- 2519000.00K
- 2519000.00K
-
-
- 127000.00K
- 27000.00K
2.46B
2.31B
-
3.73B
4.10B
372.00M
- 163000.00K
-
- 163000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BHF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$61.48
$66.87
$72.74
$79.11
$86.05