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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bridgewater Bancshares, Inc. (XNAS:BWB) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BWB
Name:
BRIDGEWATER BANCSHARES, INC. (XNAS:BWB)
Sector:
31.28M
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Jerry Baack
Total Employees:
223
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -144.63% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BRIDGEWATER BANCSHARES, INC.(BWB) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
17.15
One Month Price Target:
$17.22
Six Month Price Target :
$17.54
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$17.93
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$17.09
Price Upper limit ($) :
$17.24
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$16.28
This week:
$15.2
This month :
$13.24
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
462.79M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
27.58M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
11.44%
-16.36%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$21.20
$19.33
$13.10
$14.97
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$18.72
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$18.32
$15.57
$15.98
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BWB
Sharpe Ratio:
2.55%
Comparison:
BWB, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 107.72% higher than the industry
& ratio is 11.95% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BWB
Daily returns:
0.07%
Weekly returns:
0.37%
Monthly returns:
1.46%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 60.77% above industry average
Classification:
BWB, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.65
Statistical test of Returns:
BWB has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.52%
Weekly Volatility:
5.63%
Monthly Volatility:
11.26%
Yearly Volatility:
39.00%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.57%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -77.37% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.10%
Weekly VaR:
-11.40%
Monthly VaR:
-22.80%
How Much Can the price of
BWB
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-19%
Worst case (decline):
-78.97%
This translates to price declining to:
$13.84
This translates to price declining to:
$3.61
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BWB is a 60.90% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 37.84% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -11.87% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BWB
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.68
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.592
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.838
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.09
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.408
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.684
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.852
Beta is -20.37% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is -29.58% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
13.88%
Sustainable growth rate is 51.99% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.097
Alpha is 739.81% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 620% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BWB
Equity cost of capital:
0.078
Equity cost of capital is -20.02% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
1.04%
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$3.26
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.25
Annual revenue growth rate is 147.32% above the industry average
EPS:
$1.55
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.90%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 7.34% higher than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$2.26
-
-
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$3.58
Valuation Analysis Today of
BWB
P/E Ratio:
10.76
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
25.09
P/E ratio is -57.10% lower than main peers & is -13.26% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $19.23
BWB is -10.83% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.26
Price to sales ratio is 22.93% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.25
Price to free cash flow: 7.58
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
72.20%
Net income growth rate is 31.11% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.55%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
816.93%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-18.95%
Debt to assets ratio:
89.09%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.99%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -46.49% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.89
Interest coverage ratio is 731.12% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-5.27%
Annual debt growth is -1765% lower than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.42
Statistical significance of correlation:
BWB has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is -16.07% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.02
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.029
Kurtosis
5.303
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.176
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BWB
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
1.73%
Operating profit margin is -95.17% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
20.17%
Effective tax rate is -6.41% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
17.18%
Return on equity (ROE) is 44.03% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.81%
Return on assets (ROA) is -21.59% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
9.2x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.8 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.27%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
403.5K
Each employee generates 6% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
442.5K
Each employee generates 96% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
292.4K
Each employee generates 107% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
140.3K
Each employee generates 69% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
233.6K
Each employee generates 69% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BWB
Orion Acquisition Corp (XNAS:OHPA)
CORAZON CAPITAL V838 MONOCEROS UNT (XNAS:CRZNU)
GRSVU
MARLIN TECHNOLOGY CORPORATION (XNAS:FINM)
SENIOR CONNECT ACQUISITION CORP. I (XNAS:SNRH)
QIWI PLC (XNAS:QIWI)
MRAC
CARNEY TECHNOLOGY ACQUISITION CORP. II (XNAS:CTAQ)
MVB FINANCIAL CORP. (XNAS:MVBF)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
89.97M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
30.08M
-
26.13M
27.33M
1.20M
17.17M
25.89M
100.00M
14.33M
2.69M
98.68M
1.56M
65.20M
81.67M
16.47M
65.20M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
729.00K
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
831.00K
Change in Working Capital :
17.46M
Accounts Receivables:
-
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
31.28M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 51449.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
71.89M
459.09M
530.98M
-
-
-
530.98M
49.04M
2.63M
431.00K
-
-
-
52.10M
3.13B
3.61B
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
3.23B
3.23B
282.00K
210.60M
- 1707.0K
170.27M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
379.44M
3.61B
-
-
- 71887.0K
8.53M
- 170112.00K
- 213030.00K
-
-
- 15.00K
- 1013.00K
111.19M
110.16M
-
- 71586.00K
71.89M
143.47M
31.28M
-
31.28M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BWB
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$18.02
$28.12
$29.40
$30.74
$32.14