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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Boyd Gaming Corporation (XNYS:BYD) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BYD
Name:
BOYD GAMING CORPORATION (XNYS:BYD)
Sector:
187.09M
Industry:
Resorts & Casinos
CEO:
Mr. Keith Smith
Total Employees:
15,114
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
B
Technological advancement compared to industry is -36.30% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BOYD GAMING CORPORATION(BYD) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND RESORTS & CASINOS INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
53.24
One Month Price Target:
$53.79
Six Month Price Target :
$56.56
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$59.88
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$52.96
Price Upper limit ($) :
$53.71
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$48.8
This week:
$43.31
This month :
$33.38
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.69B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
106.84M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
42.98%
-29.56%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$73.83
$64.26
$32.65
$42.22
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$61.15
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$59.11
$45.30
$47.37
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BYD
Sharpe Ratio:
3.94%
Comparison:
BYD, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 40.93% higher than the industry
& ratio is 72.75% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BYD
Daily returns:
0.17%
Weekly returns:
0.86%
Monthly returns:
3.44%
Yearly returns:
33.63%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 22.83% above industry average
Classification:
BYD, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.62
Statistical test of Returns:
BYD has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.15%
Weekly Volatility:
9.27%
Monthly Volatility:
18.54%
Yearly Volatility:
64.23%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.84%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -79.85% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-8.34%
Weekly VaR:
-18.66%
Monthly VaR:
-37.31%
How Much Can the price of
BYD
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-31%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$36.73
This translates to price declining to:
$7.99
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BYD is a 163.34% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 125.61% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -6.96% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BYD
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.86
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
1.057
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.495
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.644
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
1.322
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.396
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.575
Beta is 17.80% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
2.078
Beta is -10.72% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
35.54%
Sustainable growth rate is 18.57% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.254
Alpha is 56.63% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 1620% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BYD
Equity cost of capital:
0.159
Equity cost of capital is -8.77% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.50%
Before-tax cost of debt:
4.58%
After-tax cost of debt:
3.62%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
3.62%
WACC is -7.74% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$32.55
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.67
Annual revenue growth rate is 51.36% above the industry average
EPS:
$4.62
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
43.06%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 161.22% higher than the Resorts & Casinos industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$7.09
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 95.09% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$35.41
EBITDA per share
$10.53
Valuation Analysis Today of
BYD
P/E Ratio:
10.75
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
24.61
P/E ratio is -56.32% lower than main peers & is -74.34% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $193.55
BYD is -72.49% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $3.39
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $0.30
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.64
Price to sales ratio is -34.64% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.67
Price to free cash flow: 7.51
Price to free cash flow ratio is -54.22% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
304.26%
Net income growth rate is -562.18% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 0.68%
Previous Dividend: $0.15
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.15
Previous Dividend: $0.36
Expected next dividend best case: $0.33
Expected next dividend worst case: -$0.03
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.12
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: -47.92%
Expected next dividend payment date: 13/10/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 28/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 15/07/2022
Previous dividend record date: 30/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-29--$0.15
2022-03-14--$0.15
--$0.00
2022-03-30--$0.14
2019-12-26--$0.07
--$0.00
Dividend growth rate is -2.54% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
243.90%
Net debt to equity ratio:
226.23%
Debt to assets ratio:
60.53%
Net debt to assets ratio:
56.14%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -17.22% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
6.28
Interest coverage ratio is 19.02% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-3.58%
Annual debt growth is -100% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 18.66%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.618
Statistical significance of correlation:
BYD has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.569
Stock price is 8.54% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.569
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
-0.006
Covariance of price movement with the market:
-0.013
Kurtosis
27.358
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.922
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BYD
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
229%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
27.53%
Operating profit margin is 275.62% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
229%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.88%
Effective tax rate is -44.61% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
33.82%
Return on equity (ROE) is 60.63% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
8.39%
Return on assets (ROA) is 118.03% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.5x
Current Ratio:
0.99
Current ratio is -55.32% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
-16.3
Cash conversion cycle is -139.40% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 2.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
1.66%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
230.1K
Each employee generates -12% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
74.5K
Each employee generates 5% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
34.7K
Each employee generates 60% more net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
12.4K
Each employee generates 24% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
375.4K
Each employee generates 24% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BYD
SKECHERS U.S.A., INC. (XNYS:SKX)
Polaris Inc. (XNYS:PII)
MARRIOTT VACATIONS WORLDWIDE CORPORATION (XNYS:VAC)
PVH CORP. (XNYS:PVH)
THE GAP, INC. (XNYS:GPS)
KOHL'S CORPORATION (XNYS:KSS)
PLANET FITNESS, INC. (XNYS:PLNT)
BRIGHT HORIZONS FAMILY SOLUTIONS INC. (XNYS:BFAM)
BRUNSWICK CORPORATION (XNYS:BC)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�29%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
3.48B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
1.48B
1.99B
-
473.29M
473.29M
-
554.02M
1.03B
1.73M
179.21M
265.80M
1.13B
957.43M
524.61M
680.29M
155.68M
524.61M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
62.48M
Differed Income Tax :
9.64M
Stock Based Compensation :
8.73M
Change in Working Capital :
- 12918.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 7613.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
2.85M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
233.71M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
402.98M
-
402.98M
97.10M
20.55M
55.95M
576.57M
3.24B
971.29M
1.37B
-
-
97.52M
5.67B
-
6.25B
84.97M
128.85M
38.53M
-
368.31M
582.14M
3.78B
59.35M
4.12B
-
4.70B
1.10M
856.54M
- 364.0K
693.86M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
2.51B
1.55B
6.25B
-
3.91B
3.5B
-
- 26508.00K
- 26508.00K
- 867897.00K
-
- 131789.00K
-
854.58M
- 145105.00K
-
62.10M
419.22M
357.13M
233.71M
- 46623.00K
187.09M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BYD
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$60.18
$107.81
$121.25
$136.36
$153.36