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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bottomline Technologies, Inc. (XNAS:EPAY) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
EPAY
Name:
BOTTOMLINE TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNAS:EPAY)
Sector:
- 1471.00K
Industry:
Software�Infrastructure
CEO:
Mr. Robert Eberle
Total Employees:
2,344
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
A
Technological advancement compared to industry is 92.01% higher
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BOTTOMLINE TECHNOLOGIES, INC.(EPAY) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND SOFTWARE�INFRASTRUCTURE INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
56.5
One Month Price Target:
$56.89
Six Month Price Target :
$58.86
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$61.23
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$56.25
Price Upper limit ($) :
$56.82
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$53.3
This week:
$49.34
This month :
$42.18
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
2.56B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
45.39M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.68%
-16.81%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$71.36
$64.52
$41.64
$48.48
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$62.30
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$60.84
$50.68
$52.16
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
EPAY
Sharpe Ratio:
1.95%
Comparison:
EPAY, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 19.17% higher than the industry
& is -14.52% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
EPAY
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.32%
Monthly returns:
1.26%
Yearly returns:
14.38%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 5.47% above industry average
Classification:
EPAY, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.98
Statistical test of Returns:
EPAY has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.79%
Weekly Volatility:
6.24%
Monthly Volatility:
12.48%
Yearly Volatility:
43.22%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
-
-
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.67%
Weekly VaR:
-12.67%
Monthly VaR:
-25.34%
How Much Can the price of
EPAY
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-87.79%
This translates to price declining to:
$44.25
This translates to price declining to:
$6.90
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
EPAY is a 78.87% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 53.24% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -16.26% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
EPAY
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.25
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
-
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
-
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.931
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.693
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.854
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.471
Beta is -15.35% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.112
Beta is 12.04% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
-
-
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.035
Alpha is -3.59% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 222% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
EPAY
Equity cost of capital:
0.117
Equity cost of capital is 8.52% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
8.73%
Before-tax cost of debt:
1.92%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.52%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.52%
WACC is 28.00% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.32
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
5.82
Annual revenue growth rate is -90.60% below industry average
EPS:
-
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
-
-
-
Debt per share
$3.48
EBITDA per share
$0.80
Valuation Analysis Today of
EPAY
P/E Ratio:
299.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
14.24
P/E ratio is 2002.12% higher than main peers & is 358.73% higher than the industry
-
-
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
6.79
Price to sales ratio is -38.16% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
5.82
-
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-255.98%
Net income growth rate is -103.02% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
35.85%
Net debt to equity ratio:
9.26%
Debt to assets ratio:
20.05%
Net debt to assets ratio:
5.18%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -71.25% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.91
Interest coverage ratio is -105.64% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-12.93%
Annual debt growth is -112% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.508
Statistical significance of correlation:
EPAY has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.48
Stock price is 5.96% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.48
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.024
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.04
Kurtosis
10.014
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.403
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
EPAY
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
173%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
-8.54%
Operating profit margin is -28.04% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
173%
Effective Tax Rate:
5.77%
Effective tax rate is -81.58% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
-4.48%
Return on equity (ROE) is -104.19% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
-2.50%
Return on assets (ROA) is -33.90% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.3x
Current Ratio:
1.61
Current ratio is -30.75% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
46.4
Cash conversion cycle is -58.75% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.4 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
-70.53%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
161.1K
Each employee generates -59% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
15.4K
Each employee generates -76% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
- 8.4K
Each employee generates -140% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.6K
Each employee generates -103% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
234.7K
Each employee generates -103% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 6.94%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -367.82% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
EPAY
QADB
VIMEO, INC. (XNAS:VMEO)
Avidxchange Holdings Inc (XNAS:AVDX)
REMITLY GLOBAL, INC (XNAS:RELY)
EXPENSIFY, INC. (XNAS:EXFY)
SANMINA CORPORATION (XNAS:SANM)
EVERCOMMERCE INC. (XNAS:EVCM)
ULTRA CLEAN HOLDINGS, INC. (XNAS:UCTT)
JFROG LTD (XNAS:FROG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�13%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
377.57M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
159.51M
218.06M
64.74M
55.07M
215.88M
104.54M
15.89M
240.23M
98.00K
3.04M
54.10M
36.21M
- 32248.00K
- 19726.00K
- 20934.00K
- 1208.00K
- 19726.00K
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
14.27M
Differed Income Tax :
- 4641.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
13.91M
Change in Working Capital :
- 8037.00K
Accounts Receivables:
5.38M
Other Working Capital:
- 15047.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 347.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
10.25M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
- 115.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 935.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
9/30/21
2022
Q1
117.20M
8.19M
125.39M
67.12M
-
45.33M
237.83M
95.03M
242.86M
163.76M
-
-
48.55M
550.20M
-
788.03M
9.75M
-
-
75.88M
61.90M
147.53M
158.00M
20.60M
199.76M
-
347.29M
49.00K
- 201751.00K
- 21376.0K
663.82M
September 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
399.74M
440.74M
788.03M
-
158.00M
40.8M
2.90M
- 11636.00K
- 9786.00K
-
-
- 20802.00K
-
2.31M
- 18489.00K
- 1108.00K
- 19137.00K
124.63M
143.77M
10.25M
- 11717.00K
- 1471.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
A
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
EPAY
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$45.92
$49.77
$53.93
$58.45
$63.34