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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Boston Scientific Corporation (XNYS:BSX) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BSX
Name:
BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION (XNYS:BSX)
Sector:
- 179000.00K
Industry:
Medical Devices
CEO:
Mr. Michael Mahoney
Total Employees:
41,000
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -221.74% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BOSTON SCIENTIFIC CORPORATION(BSX) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND MEDICAL DEVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
40.49
One Month Price Target:
$40.68
Six Month Price Target :
$41.64
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$42.78
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$40.35
Price Upper limit ($) :
$40.64
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$38.74
This week:
$36.57
This month :
$32.65
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
57.81B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
1.43B
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
9.25%
-14.79%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$48.63
$44.92
$32.35
$36.06
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$43.71
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$42.92
$37.26
$38.06
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BSX
Sharpe Ratio:
0.10%
Comparison:
BSX, is amongst the top 40% stocks with lowest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is -93.15% lower than the industry
& is -95.45% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BSX
Daily returns:
0.01%
Weekly returns:
0.06%
Monthly returns:
0.22%
Yearly returns:
15.36%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is -82.75% below industry average
Classification:
BSX, is amongst the top 40% lowest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.58
Statistical test of Returns:
BSX has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.11%
Weekly Volatility:
4.72%
Monthly Volatility:
9.45%
Yearly Volatility:
32.73%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
1.36%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -35.80% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-4.33%
Weekly VaR:
-9.68%
Monthly VaR:
-19.36%
How Much Can the price of
BSX
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-17%
Worst case (decline):
-67.05%
This translates to price declining to:
$33.61
This translates to price declining to:
$13.34
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Low (<25%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BSX is a 36.62% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 17.04% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -32.70% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BSX
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.84
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.769
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.088
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.56
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.71
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.757
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.965
Beta is -12.67% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.065
Beta is -20.87% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
6.56%
Sustainable growth rate is -49.66% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.063
Alpha is -227.65% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -399% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BSX
Equity cost of capital:
0.089
Equity cost of capital is -14.57% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.93%
Before-tax cost of debt:
5.56%
After-tax cost of debt:
4.39%
Overall debt rating:
Lower BB medium grade (Fifth highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
4.39%
WACC is -2.54% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$8.50
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
3.46
Annual revenue growth rate is -95.18% below industry average
EPS:
$0.53
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-41.12%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -455.07% lower than the Medical Devices industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$0.64
-
-
Debt per share
$6.60
EBITDA per share
$1.72
Valuation Analysis Today of
BSX
P/E Ratio:
70.25
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
27.65
P/E ratio is 154.11% higher than main peers & is -71.15% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $129.08
BSX is -68.63% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
4.77
Price to sales ratio is -48.80% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
3.46
Price to free cash flow: 63.53
Price to free cash flow ratio is -30.82% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-39.27%
Net income growth rate is -140.43% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 1.73%
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
56.44%
Net debt to equity ratio:
55.92%
Debt to assets ratio:
29.21%
Net debt to assets ratio:
28.94%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -24.61% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
4.59
Interest coverage ratio is -65.60% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
3.50%
Annual debt growth is -99% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 26.66%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.721
Statistical significance of correlation:
BSX has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.468
Stock price is 54.28% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.468
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.038
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.047
Kurtosis
5.586
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.682
Returns are left (negative) skewed; mean returns are lower than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BSX
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
274%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
10.78%
Operating profit margin is -163.13% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
274%
Effective Tax Rate:
10.80%
Effective tax rate is -80.33% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
4.84%
Return on equity (ROE) is -149.37% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.50%
Return on assets (ROA) is -174.30% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.4x
Current Ratio:
1.18
Current ratio is -81.67% below industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
16
Cash conversion cycle is -71.25% below industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 0.1 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
6.42%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
296.6K
Each employee generates -21% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
60.2K
Each employee generates 863% more EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
19.8K
Each employee generates -166% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 4.4K
Each employee generates -69% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
665.2K
Each employee generates -69% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
Research & development (R&D) investment growth rate-- 5.34%
Growth rate in R&D investment/expenditure is -4169.98% lower than the industry
Competitors/Peer firms of
BSX
IQVIA HOLDINGS INC (XNYS:IQV)
BECTON, DICKINSON AND COMPANY (XNYS:BDX)
HUMANA INC. (XNYS:HUM)
AGILENT TECHNOLOGIES, INC. (XNYS:A)
BAXTER INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:BAX)
EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORPORATION (XNYS:EW)
Takeda Pharmaceutical Company Limited (XNYS:TAK)
CIGNA CORPORATION (XNYS:CI)
HCA HEALTHCARE, INC. (XNYS:HCA)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�42%
Buy�33%
Hold�25%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Strong buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
12.16B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.82B
8.34B
1.25B
-
4.40B
-
754.00M
6.40B
3.00M
538.00M
1.02B
2.47B
1.31B
810.00M
907.00M
98.00M
810.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
274.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 75000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
52.00M
Change in Working Capital :
- 682000.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 66000.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
263.00M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 58000.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 121000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 1466000.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 15000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
325.00M
-
325.00M
1.87B
1.74B
1.14B
5.07B
2.69B
12.95B
6.58B
406.00M
4.10B
545.00M
27.27B
-
32.34B
696.00M
238.00M
459.00M
212.00M
3.13B
4.28B
9.45B
1.34B
11.33B
-
15.60B
17.00M
- 1296000.00K
222.0M
17.79B
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
10.22B
16.74B
32.34B
-
9.68B
9.4B
-
28.00M
- 1574000.00K
- 3434000.00K
-
-
- 14000.00K
3.44B
- 6000.00K
-
- 1639000.00K
529.00M
2.17B
- 58000.00K
- 121000.00K
- 179000.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BSX
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$34.38
$36.32
$38.38
$40.55
$42.85