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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Booz Allen Hamilton Holding Corporation (XNYS:BAH) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BAH
Name:
BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPORATION (XNYS:BAH)
Sector:
- 19670.00K
Industry:
Consulting Services
CEO:
Mr. Horacio Rozanski
Total Employees:
29,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -123.44% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BOOZ ALLEN HAMILTON HOLDING CORPORATION(BAH) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND CONSULTING SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
95.13
One Month Price Target:
$95.46
Six Month Price Target :
$97.12
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$99.12
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$94.89
Price Upper limit ($) :
$95.49
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$91.53
This week:
$87.07
This month :
$79.02
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
12.59B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
132.33M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
10.18%
-10.72%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$111.84
$104.11
$78.42
$86.15
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$101.59
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$99.94
$88.65
$90.32
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BAH
Sharpe Ratio:
2.87%
Comparison:
BAH, is amongst the top 40% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 32.95% higher than the industry
& ratio is 25.75% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BAH
Daily returns:
0.06%
Weekly returns:
0.31%
Monthly returns:
1.25%
Yearly returns:
14.72%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 2.03% above industry average
Classification:
BAH, is amongst the top 40% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.89
Statistical test of Returns:
BAH has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
1.87%
Weekly Volatility:
4.19%
Monthly Volatility:
8.38%
Yearly Volatility:
29.04%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.76%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -59.42% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-3.79%
Weekly VaR:
-8.47%
Monthly VaR:
-16.94%
How Much Can the price of
BAH
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-14%
Worst case (decline):
-58.68%
This translates to price declining to:
$81.56
This translates to price declining to:
$39.31
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: High (50-70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BAH is a 19.56% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 2.43% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -23.55% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BAH
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.62
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.8
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.131
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.19
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.49
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.479
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.045
Beta is -40.25% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.889
Beta is -29.81% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
35.04%
Sustainable growth rate is 120.91% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.076
Alpha is 38.59% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 484% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BAH
Equity cost of capital:
0.074
Equity cost of capital is -19.65% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
2.26%
Before-tax cost of debt:
2.22%
After-tax cost of debt:
1.75%
Overall debt rating:
Highest AAA investment grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
1.75%
WACC is -31.78% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$63.20
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
12.3
Annual revenue growth rate is 69.78% above the industry average
EPS:
$3.44
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
12.71%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 26.28% higher than the Consulting Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$4.64
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 84.79%
Equity growth rate per share is 635.69% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$22.90
EBITDA per share
$6.20
Valuation Analysis Today of
BAH
P/E Ratio:
25.05
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
16.83
P/E ratio is 48.84% higher than main peers & is 29.58% higher than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $66.49
BAH is 43.08% overvalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $112.28
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $70.46
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
1.51
Price to sales ratio is -56.04% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
12.3
Price to free cash flow: 20.50
Price to free cash flow ratio is 32.21% higher than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
112.58%
Net income growth rate is 8.08% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 11.07%
Dividend yeild: 1.68%
Previous Dividend: $0.43
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.43
Previous Dividend: $1.60
Expected next dividend best case: $0.47
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.39
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.35
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 5.04%
Expected next dividend payment date: 28/09/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 13/09/2022
-
Previous dividend payment date: 30/06/2022
Previous dividend record date: 15/06/2022
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-14--$0.43
2021-11-12--$0.37
2021-06-14--$0.37
2022-02-10--$0.43
2021-08-13--$0.37
2021-02-11--$0.37
Dividend growth rate is -22.55% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
296.08%
Net debt to equity ratio:
248.38%
Debt to assets ratio:
50.64%
Net debt to assets ratio:
42.48%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -12.91% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
11.68
Interest coverage ratio is -38.89% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
19.68%
Annual debt growth is -17% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 1.97%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.549
Statistical significance of correlation:
BAH has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.51
Stock price is 7.50% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.51
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.003
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.003
Kurtosis
6.891
Returns have a significant fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.495
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BAH
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
8.19%
Operating profit margin is -27.85% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
213%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.76%
Effective tax rate is 15.35% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
45.57%
Return on equity (ROE) is 120.34% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
7.79%
Return on assets (ROA) is 5.58% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.0x
Current Ratio:
1.81
Current ratio is 9.54% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
30.3
Cash conversion cycle is 46.22% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 6.7 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
2.67%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
285.5K
Each employee generates -12% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
28.0K
Each employee generates -66% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
15.9K
Each employee generates -66% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
- 0.7K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
119.7K
Each employee generates -92% less free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BAH
WATSCO, INC. (XNYS:WSO.B)
SNAP-ON INCORPORATED (XNYS:SNA)
GFL ENVIRONMENTAL INC. (XNYS:GFL)
PENTAIR PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:PNR)
ALLEGION PUBLIC LIMITED COMPANY (XNYS:ALLE)
ROBERT HALF INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:RHI)
LENNOX INTERNATIONAL INC. (XNYS:LII)
CARLISLE COMPANIES INCORPORATED (XNYS:CSL)
HUBBELL INCORPORATED (XNYS:HUBB)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�17%
Buy�13%
Hold�21%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
8.36B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
3.90B
4.46B
-
3.63B
3.63B
-
145.75M
3.78B
-
70.20M
145.75M
819.83M
685.18M
466.41M
604.04M
137.47M
466.41M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
27.75M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
12.44M
Change in Working Capital :
- 160151.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 220112.00K
Other Working Capital:
- 53186.00K
Other Non-Cash Items:
17.20M
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
- 10662.00K
Investments in PP&E:
- 9008.00K
Net Acquisitions:
- 665583.00K
Purchases of Investments:
- 2000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
6/30/21
2022
Q1
621.86M
-
621.86M
1.67B
-
182.18M
2.48B
433.85M
1.93B
609.76M
-
-
539.36M
3.51B
-
5.98B
478.58M
133.63M
-
-
758.70M
1.37B
3.03B
238.37M
3.59B
-
4.96B
1.64M
1.80B
- 26758.0K
- 750373.00K
June 30, 2021 at 6:00:00 AM
7.68B
1.02B
5.98B
-
3.16B
2.5B
-
-
- 676591.00K
- 60973.00K
5.76M
- 123805.00K
- 51641.00K
548.82M
318.16M
-
- 369093.00K
621.86M
990.96M
- 10662.00K
- 9008.00K
- 19670.00K
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BAH
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$102.54
$106.84
$111.32
$115.99
$120.85