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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Booking Holdings Inc. (XNAS:BKNG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BKNG
Name:
BOOKING HOLDINGS INC. (XNAS:BKNG)
Sector:
1.59B
Industry:
Travel Services
CEO:
Mr. Glenn Fogel
Total Employees:
20,300
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -2655.90% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BOOKING HOLDINGS INC.(BKNG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND TRAVEL SERVICES INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
1837.91
One Month Price Target:
$1850.64
Six Month Price Target :
$1914.32
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$1990.73
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$1829.9
Price Upper limit ($) :
$1847.05
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$1734.75
This week:
$1607.25
This month :
$1376.58
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
72.06B
Market Cap Classification:
Large Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
39.71M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
18.75%
-11.24%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$2,316.71
$2,097.80
$1,359.11
$1,578.02
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$2,026.55
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$1,979.81
$1,648.68
$1,696.01
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BKNG
Sharpe Ratio:
0.79%
Comparison:
BKNG, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 196.55% higher than the industry
& is -65.13% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BKNG
Daily returns:
0.03%
Weekly returns:
0.15%
Monthly returns:
0.61%
Yearly returns:
3.35%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 119.94% above industry average
Classification:
BKNG, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.78
Statistical test of Returns:
BKNG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
2.75%
Weekly Volatility:
6.14%
Monthly Volatility:
12.29%
Yearly Volatility:
42.57%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.43%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -84.51% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-5.61%
Weekly VaR:
-12.55%
Monthly VaR:
-25.10%
How Much Can the price of
BKNG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-22%
Worst case (decline):
-86.95%
This translates to price declining to:
$1,436.37
This translates to price declining to:
$239.83
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BKNG is a 77.16% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 51.77% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is -39.76% below industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BKNG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.24
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.852
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.205
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
0.571
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.909
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
0.765
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
1.345
Beta is -7.99% lower than peers
Average Industry Beta:
1.849
Beta is -33.09% below industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.64%
Sustainable growth rate is 77.04% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
-0.043
Alpha is -65.84% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is -271% below the market average
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BKNG
Equity cost of capital:
0.116
Equity cost of capital is -26.50% below industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
5.36%
Before-tax cost of debt:
3.00%
After-tax cost of debt:
2.37%
Overall debt rating:
High AA grade (second highest grade)
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
2.37%
WACC is -13.12% below industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$315.11
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
16.69
Annual revenue growth rate is -45.63% below industry average
EPS:
$12.36
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
-37.05%
Expected future EPS growth rate is 49.92% higher than the Travel Services industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$105.74
-
-
Debt per share
$221.22
EBITDA per share
$45.06
Valuation Analysis Today of
BKNG
P/E Ratio:
49
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
73.92
P/E ratio is -33.71% lower than main peers & is -90.19% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $6,171.99
BKNG is -70.22% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
-
-
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
5.83
Price to sales ratio is -33.67% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
16.69
Price to free cash flow: 17.38
FALSE
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-66.26%
Net income growth rate is -149.70% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
--$0.00
-
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
200.87%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-9.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
39.24%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-1.93%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -52.77% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
5.88
Interest coverage ratio is -309.78% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-8.91%
Annual debt growth is -207% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 11.15%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.675
Statistical significance of correlation:
BKNG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.558
Stock price is 20.92% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.558
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.023
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.037
Kurtosis
5.316
Returns have moderate fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are more probable, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
0.431
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BKNG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
84%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
23.83%
Operating profit margin is -106.61% lower than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
84%
Effective Tax Rate:
41.83%
Effective tax rate is -49.11% lower than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.89%
Return on equity (ROE) is -119.24% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -120.19% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.6x
Current Ratio:
1.72
Current ratio is 7.72% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 8.6 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
17.88%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
616.4K
Each employee generates 117% more revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
88.1K
Each employee generates -1153% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
25.6K
Each employee generates -137% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
78.1K
Each employee generates 289% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
468.4K
Each employee generates 289% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BKNG
JD.COM, INC. (XNAS:JD)
RIVIAN AUTOMOTIVE, INC. (XNAS:RIVN)
STARBUCKS CORPORATION (XNAS:SBUX)
Mercado Libre, Inc. (XNAS:MELI)
MARRIOTT INTERNATIONAL, INC. (XNAS:MAR)
O'Reilly Automotive, Inc. (XNAS:ORLY)
LULULEMON ATHLETICA INC. (XNAS:LULU)
EBAY INC. (XNAS:EBAY)
ROSS STORES, INC. (XNAS:ROST)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�0%
Buy�0%
Hold�0%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: -
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
12.51B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
485.00M
2.50B
-
3.48B
9.07B
5.60B
419.00M
9.49B
12.00M
304.00M
591.00M
1.79B
2.98B
520.00M
894.00M
374.00M
520.00M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
150.00M
Differed Income Tax :
- 216000.00K
Stock Based Compensation :
93.00M
Change in Working Capital :
1.33B
Accounts Receivables:
- 326000.00K
Other Working Capital:
1.71B
Other Non-Cash Items:
1.04B
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
1.70B
Investments in PP&E:
- 109000.00K
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 12000.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
10.55B
-
10.55B
1.61B
-
715.00M
12.88B
1.33B
2.88B
2.00B
2.20B
-
1.10B
9.51B
-
22.38B
1.50B
1.33B
-
2.77B
1.88B
7.48B
8.78B
1.03B
10.53B
-
18.01B
-
23.78B
- 183000.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
9.49B
4.37B
22.38B
-
10.12B
- 432000.0K
-
-
- 121000.00K
- 1102000.00K
-
- 1049000.00K
-
12.00M
- 2139000.00K
- 9000.00K
- 574000.00K
10.58B
11.15B
1.70B
- 109000.00K
1.59B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BKNG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$1,483.31
$1,606.64
$1,740.23
$1,884.92
$2,041.65