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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bok Financial Corporation (XNAS:BOKF) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BOKF
Name:
BOK FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:BOKF)
Sector:
3.93B
Industry:
Banks�Regional
CEO:
Mr. Steven Bradshaw
Total Employees:
4,763
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
D
Technological advancement compared to industry is -150.16% lower
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BOK FINANCIAL CORPORATION(BOKF) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND BANKS�REGIONAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
88.05
One Month Price Target:
$88.72
Six Month Price Target :
$92.04
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$96.04
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$87.64
Price Upper limit ($) :
$88.56
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$82.55
This week:
$75.74
This month :
$63.43
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
5.85B
Market Cap Classification:
Mid Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
67.81M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
19.92%
-25.53%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$113.59
$101.88
$62.51
$74.22
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$98.06
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$95.56
$78.01
$80.54
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BOKF
Sharpe Ratio:
1.46%
Comparison:
BOKF, is amongst the top 60% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 19.12% higher than the industry
& is -35.80% lower than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BOKF
Daily returns:
0.05%
Weekly returns:
0.27%
Monthly returns:
1.08%
Yearly returns:
10.91%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 18.29% above industry average
Classification:
BOKF, is amongst the top 60% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.84
Statistical test of Returns:
BOKF has not yielded statistically significant higher returns when compared to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
3.07%
Weekly Volatility:
6.87%
Monthly Volatility:
13.73%
Yearly Volatility:
47.56%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.40%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -86.83% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-6.25%
Weekly VaR:
-13.98%
Monthly VaR:
-27.96%
How Much Can the price of
BOKF
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-24%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$66.82
This translates to price declining to:
$13.21
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Medium (<50%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BOKF is a 97.33% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 69.05% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 7.48% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BOKF
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--1.35
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.869
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
1.229
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
1.316
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.645
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.015
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.968
Beta is 39.47% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.964
Beta is 40.09% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
8.91%
Sustainable growth rate is -2.37% below industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.005
Alpha is -56.13% below industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 32% compared to market & is healthy
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BOKF
Equity cost of capital:
0.124
Equity cost of capital is 27.14% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
12.09%
Before-tax cost of debt:
36.46%
After-tax cost of debt:
28.81%
Overall debt rating:
Non-investment grade (junk/speculative grade
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
28.81%
WACC is 8.40% above industry mean WACC
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$24.44
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
1.23
Annual revenue growth rate is -71.59% below industry average
EPS:
$7.76
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
8.38%
Expected future EPS growth rate is -30.28% lower than the Banks�Regional industry
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$6.67
Balance sheet equity growth per share: 8.09%
Equity growth rate per share is -79.11% lower than the industry
Debt per share
$2.38
EBITDA per share
$12.54
Valuation Analysis Today of
BOKF
P/E Ratio:
12.03
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
18.93
P/E ratio is -36.44% lower than main peers & is -3.02% lower than the industry
Stock price/value with industry average P/E ratio: $96.29
BOKF is -8.56% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $29.41
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $17.64
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
3.6
Price to sales ratio is -15.77% below the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
1.23
Price to free cash flow: 13.20
-
Net income growth rate (3Y):
32.32%
Net income growth rate is -41.31% lower than the industry average net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
Dividend payout rate: 6.79%
Dividend yeild: 2.40%
Previous Dividend: $0.53
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.53
Previous Dividend: $2.11
Expected next dividend best case: $0.54
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.52
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.52
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.39%
Expected next dividend payment date: 23/08/2022
Expected next dividend record date: 08/09/2022
Expected next dividend declaration date: 08/01/2022
Previous dividend payment date: 25/05/2022
Previous dividend record date: 05/11/2022
Previous dividend declaration date: 05/03/2022
Dividend History:
2022-05-10--$0.53
2021-11-12--$0.53
2021-05-14--$0.52
2022-02-14--$0.53
2021-08-13--$0.52
2021-02-11--$0.52
Dividend growth rate is -98.34% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
3.32%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-24.88%
Debt to assets ratio:
0.34%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-2.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is -99.79% below industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
14.47
Interest coverage ratio is 1646.32% more than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-92.50%
Annual debt growth is -29306% lower than industry average debt growth rate
Debt repayment rate in last quarter: 0.00%
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.548
Statistical significance of correlation:
BOKF has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.501
Stock price is 9.42% more correlated with the market, compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.501
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.022
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.04
Kurtosis
12.16
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
-0.028
Returns are, approximately, symmetrical
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BOKF
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
0.00%
-
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
100%
Effective Tax Rate:
22.32%
Effective tax rate is 3.59% higher than the industry
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
11.02%
Return on equity (ROE) is -7.60% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
1.14%
Return on assets (ROA) is -50.47% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
1.0x
Current Ratio:
0
-
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
0
-
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 21.3 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
0.53%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
348.0K
Each employee generates -8% less revenue than industry average revenue per employee
EBITDA generated per employee:
178.6K
Each employee generates -21% less EBITDA than industry average revenue per employee
Profit generated per employee:
112.2K
Each employee generates -21% less net income/profit than industry average revenue per employee
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
825.8K
Each employee generates 893% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Assets/Capital per employee
4.2M
Each employee generates 893% more free cash flow than industry average revenue per employee
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BOKF
SOUTHSTATE CORPORATION (XNAS:SSB)
SLM CORPORATION (XNAS:SLM)
NAVIENT CORPORATION (XNAS:JSM)
VALLEY NATIONAL BANCORP (XNAS:VLY)
PEOPLE'S UNITED FINANCIAL, INC. (XNAS:PBCTP)
PINNACLE FINANCIAL PARTNERS, INC. (XNAS:PNFP)
GLACIER BANCORP, INC. (XNYS:GBCI)
ENSTAR GROUP LIMITED (XNAS:ESGR)
TFS FINANCIAL CORPORATION (XNAS:TFSL)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�4%
Buy�4%
Hold�38%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Hold
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
1.66B
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
-
362.11M
-
865.59M
886.24M
20.65M
965.41M
1.18B
1.16B
58.77M
103.64M
850.55M
-
534.55M
688.06M
153.59M
534.55M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
26.09M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.84M
Change in Working Capital :
3.89B
Accounts Receivables:
- 88559.00K
Other Working Capital:
4.10B
Other Non-Cash Items:
- 46921.00K
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
3.93B
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
- 1161606.00K
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
1.37B
12.89B
14.26B
468.10M
-
-
-
574.79M
1.04B
297.32M
17.97B
-
-
19.89B
66.71B
46.83B
319.06M
-
-
-
-
-
161.16M
-
161.16M
42.13B
41.97B
5.00K
4.47B
- 417826.0K
-
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
-
4.85B
46.82B
30.86B
161.16M
- 1206620.0K
845.86M
- 587933.00K
- 903682.00K
-
-
- 52981.00K
- 36295.00K
- 4409925.00K
- 4499201.00K
-
- 1469629.00K
1.37B
2.84B
3.93B
-
3.93B
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
D
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BOKF
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$96.52
$136.49
$148.87
$162.38
$177.11