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RISK CONCERN
Investment Strategy, Risk Analysis, and Insights by Chartered Professionals
Bluerock Residential Growth Reit, Inc. (XNYS:BRG) In-Depth Stock/Fundamental/Options Analysis Today
Primary Facts
BRG
Name:
Bluerock Residential Growth REIT, Inc. (XNYS:BRG)
Sector:
13.38M
Industry:
REIT�Residential
CEO:
Mr. R. Ramin Kamfar
Total Employees:
-
Our Technological Advancement Rating
Our Rating:
-
-
ANALYSIS OF ALL CRITICAL FACTORS & RISKS RELATED TO THE STOCK & FUNDAMENTAL/LONG-TERM ANALYSIS OF BLUEROCK RESIDENTIAL GROWTH REIT, INC.(BRG) AS PER DATA ANALYSIS OF LAST 3 YEARS AND COMPARISON WITH COMPETITORS/PEERS, AND REIT�RESIDENTIAL INDUSTRY. DATE: 07/09/2022
Primary Targets/Price Insights
Previous Close ($) :
26.76
One Month Price Target:
$26.89
Six Month Price Target :
$27.53
Likely Price in One Year's Time:
Ticker:
$28.29
Likely Trading Range Today Under (Normal Volatility)
$26.6
Price Upper limit ($) :
$27.03
Price Lower limit ($) :
Crash Risk Prep/Key Price Levels (High Volatility/Risk)
Price, as per data analysis, isn't likely to fall below:
Today:
$24.19
This week:
$21.02
This month :
$15.28
Other Primary facts
Market Cap:
817.87M
Market Cap Classification:
Small Cap
Number of Shares
IPO Date:
30.57M
Best/Worst Daily Performance (Last 3+ Years)
Highest Daily Appreciation:
76.17%
-31.46%
Worst Daily Decline:
Our Options Trading Entry Points
Iron Condor entry points for options expiring in 1 week's time
Low risk (<2%) entry points
Buy Call:
Sell Call:
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$38.66
$33.12
$14.86
$20.40
Medium risk (<10%) entry points
Buy Call
Sell Call
$31.32
Buy Put:
Sell Put:
$30.13
$22.19
$23.39
These entry points can be used for other strategies, such as butterflies, straddles, etc.
Risk-Adjusted returns (Sharpe Ratio) of
BRG
Sharpe Ratio:
4.35%
Comparison:
BRG, is amongst the top 20% stocks with highest risk-adjusted returns
Sharpe ratio is 174.23% higher than the industry
& ratio is 90.84% higher than the market/S&P 500 average
Average Returns/Yield of
BRG
Daily returns:
0.22%
Weekly returns:
1.08%
Monthly returns:
4.33%
Yearly returns:
13.06%
Comparison of returns:
Average annual returns/yield (last 3 years) is 298.16% above industry average
Classification:
BRG, is amongst the top 20% highest yielding stocks in terms of daily returns
Results of T-Test of Returns:
0.28
Statistical test of Returns:
BRG has yielded returns statistically similar to the market
Volatility (measured by Standard Deviation)
Daily Volatility:
4.78%
Weekly Volatility:
10.68%
Monthly Volatility:
21.36%
Yearly Volatility:
73.99%
Volitlilty of last five days (Measured by Standard Deviation)
Average Volatility of this Week:
0.28%
Volatility in last five trading days has been -94.08% below long-term volatility
Value at Risk Analysis (VaR)
Daily VaR:
-9.59%
Weekly VaR:
-21.45%
Monthly VaR:
-42.90%
How Much Can the price of
BRG
Decline in a Recession?
Likely price decline in a recession:
Base case (decline):
-35%
Worst case (decline):
>85%
This translates to price declining to:
$17.27
This translates to price declining to:
$4.01
Severe Crash Probability
Risk of crash in next 6/12 months: Very high (>70%)
What is Value at Risk (VaR)?
Risk Fundamentals
BRG is a 202.78% riskier investment compared to the market/S&P 500 & is 159.39% riskier than Nasdaq (IXIC)
Risk (measured by volatility) is 94.78% above industry average
Overall, it is amongst the top 50% most risky stocks
Beta Examination of
BRG
Beta in relation to market/S&P 500--0.85
Expected beta in 1 year's time:
0.64
Expected beta in 3 year's time:
0.905
Unlevered (debt free) Beta:
-
Beta in relation to Nasdaq (XNAS):
0.756
Beta in relation to all global stocks::
1.188
Beta Comparison & Analysis
Beta of competitors/peers::
0.722
Beta is 18.07% higher than peers
Average Industry Beta:
0.785
Beta is 8.50% above industry average
Sustainable Growth Rate Analysis
Sustainable growth rate for this stock/firm:
7.80%
Sustainable growth rate is 47.17% above industry average
Alpha provided | Alpha Analysis
Alpha provided:
0.430
Alpha is 849.85% above industry average alpha yield
Alpha is 2737% higher than market/& is unsustainably high
Analysis of Cost of Capital of
BRG
Equity cost of capital:
0.090
Equity cost of capital is 5.36% above industry mean WACC
Unlevered (without debt) cost of capital:
-
Before-tax cost of debt:
-
After-tax cost of debt:
-
Overall debt rating:
-
Weighted average cost of capital (WACC):
-
-
Key Per-Share Metrics & Analysis
Revenue per share:
$1.87
Revenue growth rate per share of (3Y):
0.71
Annual revenue growth rate is 29.07% above the industry average
EPS:
-$1.36
Expected Annual growth rate of EPS (3Y):
0.00%
-
Free cash flow (FCF) per share:
$1.67
Balance sheet equity growth per share: -100.00%
Equity growth rate per share is 2321.04% higher than the industry
Debt per share
$0.00
EBITDA per share
$1.57
Valuation Analysis Today of
BRG
P/E Ratio:
137.1
P/E Ratio of Competitors/Peers:
13.89
P/E ratio is 887.29% higher than main peers & is 106.74% higher than the industry
-
BRG is -129.67% undervalued if valued using industry average P/E ratio
Share value as per dividend discount (DDM) model: $19.10
Present value of the expected future dividends only: $7.26
P/S (Price to Sales ratio):
14.3
Price to sales ratio is 21.96% above the industry mean
P/B (Price to book value ratio):
0.71
Price to free cash flow: 16.02
Price to free cash flow ratio is -60.09% lower than the industry
Net income growth rate (3Y):
-8463.64%
Net income growth rate is 686.13% higher than the average industry net income growth rate
Dividend Analysis
-
Dividend yeild: 2.43%
Previous Dividend: $0.16
Previous adjusted dividend: $0.16
Previous Dividend: $0.65
Expected next dividend best case: $0.16
Expected next dividend worst case: $0.16
Average dividend payment (long-term): $0.16
Average dividend increase/decrease (growth rate) % per period: 0.03%
-
-
-
-
-
-
Dividend History:
2022-06-23--$0.16
2021-12-22--$0.16
2021-06-24--$0.16
2022-03-24--$0.16
2021-09-23--$0.16
2021-03-24--$0.16
Dividend growth rate is -100.11% lower than the industry average
In-depth Debt & Leverage Analysis
Debt to equity ratio:
137.82%
Net debt to equity ratio:
-359.84%
Debt to assets ratio:
56.85%
Net debt to assets ratio:
-9.58%
Debt-to-asset ratio is 11.51% above industry average
Ability to repay debt:
Interest coverage ratio:
-0.72
Interest coverage ratio is -127.62% less than industry average
Looking forward:
Debt growth rate:
-100.00%
Annual debt growth is 2142% higher than industry average debt growth rate
-
Analysis of Key Statistics
Correlation of price movement with the market:
0.347
Statistical significance of correlation:
BRG has a statistically significant correlation with the market
Average Correlation of the industry with the market:
0.63
Stock price is -44.98% less correlated with the market compared to the industry average correlation
R Squared (percentage of price movement explained by movement of the market):
0.63
Correlation of price movement with Nasdaq (^IXIC):
0.063
Covariance of price movement with the market:
0.176
Kurtosis
99.974
Returns have severe fat-tails (leptokurtic), i.e., returns considerably higher or lower than the mean returns are considerably more likely, compared to assets with normally distributed returns
Skewness of returns:
5.892
Returns are right (positive) skewed; mean returns are greater than median and mode returns
Fundamental Analysis & Dupont Analysis of
BRG
Gross Profit Margin Ratio:
198%
Operating Profit Margin Ratio:
39.78%
Operating profit margin is 30.82% higher than the industry
Net Profit Margin Ratio:
198%
Effective Tax Rate:
-
-
Dupont Method
Net Profit Margin
Return on Equity Ratio (ROE):
×
ROA
=
×
87.11%
Return on equity (ROE) is 921.64% higher than the industry
Financial Leverage
Asset Turnover Ratio (ROA):
2.32%
Return on assets (ROA) is -33.88% lower than the industry
Financial Leverage:
2.3x
Current Ratio:
173.24
Current ratio is 1750.11% above industry average
Cash Conversion Cycle (days):
361.8
Cash conversion cycle is 2442.61% above industry average
The remaining useful life of property plant & equipment is: 10.5 years
Stock based compensation to net income ratio:
3.95%
In-depth Efficiency Analysis
Revenue generated per employee:
-
-
EBITDA generated per employee:
-
-
Profit generated per employee:
-
-
Free cash flow (FCF) generated per employee:
-
-
Assets/Capital per employee
-
-
Research & Development (R&D) Analysis
-
-
Competitors/Peer firms of
BRG
NEW ENGLAND REALTY ASSOCIATES LIMITED PARTNERSHIP (XNYS:NEN)
POWER REIT (XNYS:PW)
COMSTOCK INC. (XNYS:LODE)
CTO REALTY GROWTH, INC. (XNYS:CTO)
TRINITY PLACE HOLDINGS INC. (XNYS:TPHS)
CONDOR HOSPITALITY TRUST, INC. (XNYS:CDOR)
INNSUITES HOSPITALITY TRUST (XNYS:IHT)
CKX LANDS, INC. (XNYS:CKX)
HMG/COURTLAND PROPERTIES, INC. (XNYS:HMG)
Current Analyst Ratings
Strong buy�8%
Buy�13%
Hold�4%
Sell�0%
Strong sell�0%
Overall analyst sentiment is: Buy
Income Statement
Period:
TTM
Date:
3/31/22
Revenue:
57.22M
Cost of Revenue:
Gross Profit:
R&D Expense
General & Admin Expenses:
Selling, General & Admin Expenses
Sales and Marketing Expenses
Other Expenses :
Operating Expenses :
Cost & Expenses :
Interest Income:
Interest Expenses:
Depreciation & Amortization:
EBITDA:
Operating Income:
Other Income Expenses:
Income Before Tax:
Income Tax Expense:
Net Income:
Balance Sheet
Date:
Calendar Year:
Period:
Cash & Cash Equivalents:
Short Term Investments:
Cash & Short Term Investments:
Net Receivables:
Inventory:
Other Current Assets:
Total Current Assets:
PP&E:
Goodwill:
Intangible Assets:
Long Term Investments:
Tax Assets:
Other Non-Current Assets:
Total Non-Current Assets:
Other Assets:
Total Assets:
Accounts Payable:
Short Term Debt:
Tax Payables:
Deferred Revenue:
Other Current Liabilities:
Total Current Liabilities:
Long Term Debt:
Other Non-Current Liabilities:
Total Non Current Liabilities:
Other Liabilities:
Total Liabilities:
Common Stock:
Retained Earnings:
Accumulated Other Comprehensive Loss:
Other Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Stockholders' Equity:
Total Liabilities and Stockholders' Equity:
Total Investments:
Total Debt:
Net Debt:
38.05M
69.58M
-
19.86M
- 1002.99K
-
-
- 1002.99K
0.01K
- 66535.99K
54.68M
48.08M
22.76M
59.93M
44.01M
-
59.93M
Statement of Cash Flow
Date:
Period:
22.83M
Differed Income Tax :
-
Stock Based Compensation :
2.37M
Change in Working Capital :
- 5513.00K
Accounts Receivables:
- 655.00K
Other Working Capital:
-
Other Non-Cash Items:
-
Net Cash Provided by Operating Activities:
21.59M
Investments in PP&E:
-
Net Acquisitions:
-
Purchases of Investments:
-
Sales/Maturities of Investments:
Other Investing Activities:
Net Cash Used for Investing Activities:
Debt Repayment:
Common Stock Issued:
Common Stock Repurchased:
Dividend Paid:
Other Financing Activities:
Net Cash Used Provided by Financing Activities:
Effect of FOREX on Changes in Cash:
Net Changes in Cash:
Cash at End of Period:
Cash at Beginning of Period:
Operating Cash Flow:
Capital Expenditure:
Free Cash Flow (FCF):
3/31/22
2022
Q1
247.56M
-
247.56M
106.88M
-
-
354.45M
-
-
1.06M
-
-
-
1.06M
2.23B
2.58B
2.05M
-
-
-
-
2.05M
-
1.43B
1.43B
-
1.44B
296.00K
- 0.02K
-
68.50M
March 31, 2022 at 6:00:00 AM
93.18M
68.80M
1.50B
2.31B
-
- 247564.0K
-
69.38M
69.38M
-
6.58M
-
-
- 18873.00K
- 12290.00K
-
78.68M
275.18M
-
21.59M
- 8207.00K
13.38M
Our Proprietary Portfolio Rating
Our Rating:
-
Price Forecast/Expected Price in Next 5 Years of
BRG
2023
2024
2025
2026
2027
$28.38
$30.00
$31.72
$33.54
$35.46